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MetHerb

January 2014 pattern discussion

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I know people are antsy and we all understand that. Absolutely. However I think most of us have done a good job outlining how this plays out. If its cold and dry through Valentines Day then Powderfreak had every right to tie his hemp necklace around my neck and dangle me over the cliff next to the 3K snow stake.

Good thing he doesn't have a pony-o to strangle himself with.

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OP GFS is comical tonight...the EPO ridge meets up with the Scandinavian risge norht of Greenland and pins the PV in S Canada...and then the PV forces up a N ATL ridge into Greenland that meets up with the ridge bridge north of Greenland....its epic blocking from like every angle.

 

The PV does a loop d' loop with nowhere to go and starts heading south again. :lol:

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OP GFS is comical tonight...the EPO ridge meets up with the Scandinavian risge norht of Greenland and pins the PV in S Canada...and then the PV forces up a N ATL ridge into Greenland that meets up with the ridge bridge north of Greenland....its epic blocking from like every angle.

The PV does a loop d' loop with nowhere to go and starts heading south again. :lol:

It just bounces around the ridges lol like a pinball. That's a Jerry run right there. It would be nice to start to see a trend NW with that low on Tuesday. Might be tough in this pattern but still a little time left here.

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OP GFS is comical tonight...the EPO ridge meets up with the Scandinavian risge norht of Greenland and pins the PV in S Canada...and then the PV forces up a N ATL ridge into Greenland that meets up with the ridge bridge north of Greenland....its epic blocking from like every angle.

 

The PV does a loop d' loop with nowhere to go and starts heading south again. :lol:

Haha! 

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That is an epic vortex sitting over James Bay for most of the 00z GFS run

 

Not to mention the split in the stratosphere at the end of the run.

 

http://t.co/kiJvVVmprq

with that huge gyre in central canada wouldnt any sort of amplification on the east coast be very difficult?

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6" below normal for the date isn't even that bad. 40-50" on the season would be like 30" below normal the rest of the way. You guys are just really jaded right now.

 

If it does go on another week and a half, then sure it becomes tougher to make up the deficit. But overall one good storm could put them back on a climo track. Even the 30" deficit at the picnic tables could be made up pretty quickly if they can upslope for a couple days.

 

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Got a question for you ocean guys...I've noticed that a lot of these progs have near constant precipitation being printed out over like the entire eastern seaboard just off the coast... its always light precip, but its there regardless of what H7 and H85 relative humidity plots show.  Is that like extreme low level OES or freezing mist or something?  Does it actually precipitate that widespread over the ocean with these cold shots? 

 

LIke with the PV near us, the recent runs will print like days worth of 6-hour panels of measurable precip from the coastline eastward (from like Maine to the Carolinas).  Say the 18z GFS has over 60 straight hours of measurable just off the coast.  Does that actually occur or is it just a function of the model thinks it should be precipitating because of the cold air moving over the ocean?  It just seems odd to blow up the entire eastern coastal water with precip for like days straight.

 

As Brian said, you pretty much have the right idea. It's the model's attempt to show the OES processes at work. You've seen the cloud streets on satellite after a good cold outbreak from BHB to MIA. Most models don't have the resolution to model individual convective rolls, so it spits out light QPF in each grid instead. Models do the same thing over the Great Lakes when cold air spills over them. You better believe there is some squally weather out on the waters, kind of dearth of reports though.

 

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Even the 30" deficit at the picnic tables could be made up pretty quickly if they can upslope for a couple days.

I think we do fine from here on out...maybe not January but I've got hopes for Feb/Mar/April. One thing to remember about the 30" deficit...that's 30" of "coop snow". That's 30" that needs to find its way into the 8-inch rain gauge. Even Valentine's Day 2007, the most prolific snowstorm in recent memory for VT'ers saw 24" at the coop (by far the biggest snowfall that thing has recorded in a in a long time, even if it was 12-18" too low).

Making up 30" at that station will take a ridiculous amount of snow, haha. Like I had posted from the November upslope event, the snow depth increased 17" while the coop new snow was like 6". It really is a special station, and BTV probably has a better chance of making up 30" because they actually measure accurately, rather than chancing it that some snow finds it's way into a rain gauge.

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I know people are antsy and we all understand that. Absolutely. However I think most of us have done a good job outlining how this plays out. If its cold and dry through Valentines Day then Powderfreak had every right to tie his hemp necklace around my neck and dangle me over the cliff next to the 3K snow stake.

I sense a Jayhawk gif here...but it feel good going forward. I think your and Will's battle will soon become if something doesn't happen in SNE in the next 10 days or so, the jumpers will be lining up...and the "where's the epic pattern" questions will start rolling out in force.

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I sense a Jayhawk gif here...but it feel good going forward. I think your and Will's battle will soon become if something doesn't happen in SNE in the next 10 days or so, the jumpers will be lining up...and the "where's the epic pattern" questions will start rolling out in force.

 

Because as we all know cold = snow. :snowing:

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Speaking of NW, where has MPM been?

 

 

I think he took a swan dive into the cement foundation of his pool. Shawl and all.

 

LOL at the comments.  I had to take my focus away from the weather--it's been too sorry to consider.

 

 

This will be a fun thread to see people complaining over the next week.

 

I won't complain as long as we have a wintry feel.  But having to endure two mud seasons this year just sucks.  I suppose if we don't get any more snow, we'll just have the one mud season.  Now that would be sad.

 

Hopefully, mud-season #1 will be winding down with freezing temps this morning and heading into a cooler stretch.

 

25.9/25

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This will be a fun thread to see people complaining over the next week.

6z GFS looks nice...shows how something can pop. Has something next Friday that would be tasty in SNE. Then longer out shows how NNE can get in on the snow around hour 252.

I think people may have to realize we may have to sit through a week of cold/dry before it starts happening. This has the feel of a pattern that will snow synoptically on the way out as it relaxes, not as it's pressing in and the PV drops in aside from snow showery type stuff.

I also love how the op models go all over the place at the end of their runs...one run the GFS has a PV over Toronto (00z) and the next run it's developing a cutter headed for Toronto (6z) two weeks out.

Ensembles FTW.

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6z GFS looks nice...shows how something can pop. Has something next Friday that would be tasty in SNE. Then longer out shows how NNE can get in on the snow around hour 252.

I think people may have to realize we may have to sit through a week of cold/dry before it starts happening. This has the feel of a pattern that will snow synoptically on the way out as it relaxes, not as it's pressing in and the PV drops in aside from snow showery type stuff.

I also love how the op models go all over the place at the end of their runs...one run the GFS has a PV over Toronto (00z) and the next run it's developing a cutter headed for Toronto (6z) two weeks out.

Ensembles FTW.

 

This year, I'd side with the cutter scenario.

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This year, I'd side with the cutter scenario.

I doubt this far out that's a final solution obviously. However, I could be crazy, but it seems like when a cutter has been modeled in the medium to medium long range this year, it's kind of worked out that way.

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6z GFS looks nice...shows how something can pop. Has something next Friday that would be tasty in SNE. Then longer out shows how NNE can get in on the snow around hour 252.

I think people may have to realize we may have to sit through a week of cold/dry before it starts happening. This has the feel of a pattern that will snow synoptically on the way out as it relaxes, not as it's pressing in and the PV drops in aside from snow showery type stuff.

I also love how the op models go all over the place at the end of their runs...one run the GFS has a PV over Toronto (00z) and the next run it's developing a cutter headed for Toronto (6z) two weeks out.

Ensembles FTW.

Yep I agree, but you know how it goes here. People will ignore what a lot of us say because everyone wants snow sooner rather than later. I know it sucks to wait, but that's the way it is sometimes. I still like what I see going forward. The trend to bring some relatively milder air back near the beginning of Feb could bode well for you guys.

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I highly doubt all of next week is cold and dry. We always manage to sneak out some lighter snows in these patterns. Thinking back to last week...how it looked dry and we snuck out 2 snowfalls

It will be way better vs last week IMHO. I think we get a plowable event next week.

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It will be way better vs last week IMHO. I think we get a plowable event next week.

Hey as long as it's bitter cold it will be winter..So that's a win. But man we need to cover the ground at least. (which in all liklihood we will) whether it's a clipper or squalls..or an ULL

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Hey as long as it's bitter cold it will be winter..So that's a win. But man we need to cover the ground at least. (which in all liklihood we will) whether it's a clipper or squalls..or an ULL

The latter half of the GEFS offer a great Leontine snow look......perfect in my mind. And now next weeks event is ever so slowly starting to creep back. And yes....cold! I'm happy.

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