January 2014 pattern discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha ha, wow ... the operational Euro is out for you guys.  Man, what a woodshed paddling... Could be onto something though, as we've been hammering wave interference as being the dominating characteristic during the current flow era. 

 

I guess if worse comes to worse you could always go with this trusty beast of a model:

 

[ORH_wxman]

Oh just the minute anyone has posted anything related to this pattern being "not epic", dry, or not producing snow, they've been dismissed and ridiculed.

 

And no I don't like winter lol, but I can't stand wishcasting.

 

 

We routinely hammer Kevin (or anyone else) when he is trying to lock in D8 snowstorms. There is no reason to pretend that locking in a snow drought for the rest of January is any more scientific.

[powderfreak]

My heart bleeds for you it really really does.

 

Leon is getting it done

 

[Ginx snewx]

Oh just the minute anyone has posted anything related to this pattern being "not epic", dry, or not producing snow, they've been dismissed and ridiculed.

 

And no I don't like winter lol, but I can't stand wishcasting.

You went from attacked and brutalized to  dismissed and ridiculed, sort of like 12-24 to 4-8, next post 1-3? Your sense of humor and fun with the weather is noted. I am sure if anyone feels ridiculed they will come forward. Will, Brian and Sam as well as many many mets and hobbyists like Dons have stated over and over again that analogs, PNA, PV setup all point to a POSSIBLE SW amplifying with the odds pretty good a nice storm develops, yea you are pretty far North for it but then there are the Clippers, windex, INVT, upslope possibilities. Relax man nobody is saying they are right. You have the right to punt too, could be damn correct or it could be returned Auburn style, who knows? All I know is from my experience DOWN here the upcoming pattern will produce eventually.

[powderfreak]

 

I guess if worse comes to worse you could always go with this trusty beast of a model:

 

 

That is by far the best model out there...lol.  I wish our weather was as exciting as the GGEM usually pegs it to be...weekly 970mb lows somewhere nearby.  It would be fun to live in the GGEM's world.

[Ginx snewx]

Re PFs graphic, Boston had 3.8 at this point last year, you see how the media works the hype either way?

[Typhoon Tip]

That is by far the best model out there...lol.  I wish our weather was as exciting as the GGEM usually pegs it to be...weekly 970mb lows somewhere nearby.  It would be fun to live in the GGEM's world.

 

Yeah, no kidding with the phantasmal spinning gyres in a diamond's eye imagination does that model sell...

 

The GFS does have a persistent wave in that time frame though... It's like a 999mb type flattish waste...but at least it's there... Hell, a 50/50 compromise between the 968mb Boston Light Express and the OTS 999er would be a great event down this way...  

 

By the way, I know I was being snarky about the Euro but ... the Euro has SUCKED the sweat off donkey sacks lately and one thing to keep in mind is that it has shown ...basically three variations on the pattern across the last three cycles, which via such poor continuity you'd be in your rites to toss the model for now... Seriously, I am aware of the longer term Euro status -- still, it clearly cannot handle the truth for the time being..

[8611Blizz]

And as expected  two weeks without snow goes by this place turns out to be as bad or worse than I expected.

 

Wow we really need something to track or this place will be unreadable in a few days...if not sooner.

[Ginx snewx]

Hmm wonder how much snow BVT had to this date in 2008? The second highest total year on that chart

[Typhoon Tip]

Jesus H. is that a cold run of the GFS next week!

[Ginx snewx]

that snow is 2-3" deep- nice aesthetic in that shot, but far from anything of utility for recreation.  We need another 2-3 feet of snow, really. My seasons  pass is useless for XC skiing right now as they have zero base, washed out and "refreshed" with 2-3" of snow on dirt.  It's really still pretty bad around there. 

LOl I know man, just busting, good luck and hopefully you have a great base for the rest of the year, which lasts up there to April usually right?

[ORH_wxman]

Hmm wonder how much snow BVT had to this date in 2008? The second highest total year on that chart

 

 

Prob a lot since Dec 2007 was one of their snowiest Decembers on record (if not THE snowiest)

[Allsnow]

happy hour gfs agrees with 12z euro…next weekend our shot..

[78Blizzard]

 ... the Euro has SUCKED the sweat off donkey sacks lately

 

[powderfreak]

Hmm wonder how much snow BVT had to this date in 2008? The second highest total year on that chart

 

Around 55-60 inches.  About 250% of what they have now.

[Ginx snewx]

Prob a lot since Dec 2007 was one of their snowiest Decembers on record (if not THE snowiest)

45.2, that was an epic Dec

http://www.weather.gov/btv/climo_snowfall

[Hailstoned]

As a break from the incestuous hen picking going on here, a certain meterorogist whose afd's are sorely missed, informs me what he's sees progged is hard to believe, and if accurate--we need to prepare for a cross polar invasion more severe than what we endured earlier this month with daily sub zero temperatures readings from Philly on N.E.-- and, there will be snow opportunities.

[HoarfrostHubb]

As a break from the incestuous hen picking going on here, a certain meterorogist whose afd's are sorely missed, informs me what he's sees progged is hard to believe, and if accurate--we need to prepare for a cross polar invasion more severe than what we endured earlier this month with daily sub zero temperatures readings from Philly on N.E.-- and, there will be snow opportunities.

That holds a lot of water here

I miss him. Best AFDsp

[Ginx snewx]

Around 55-60 inches.  About 250% of what they have now.

Yea look at the Leon year you referenced 

1993-1994 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 7.9 9.1

then Jan 38.6

 

things turn around in a hurry was my point, showing a yTD total then using a map which shows annual is misleading and meant to hype the lack of snow. They want to be truthful, put up a map similar with each one of those years YTD, would not seem as bad but then again why would they want to do that. 

[Ginx snewx]

As a break from the incestuous hen picking going on here, a certain meterorogist whose afd's are sorely missed, informs me what he's sees progged is hard to believe, and if accurate--we need to prepare for a cross polar invasion more severe than what we endured earlier this month with daily sub zero temperatures readings from Philly on N.E.-- and, there will be snow opportunities.

Mr Drag?

[Damage In Tolland]

As a break from the incestuous hen picking going on here, a certain meterorogist whose afd's are sorely missed, informs me what he's sees progged is hard to believe, and if accurate--we need to prepare for a cross polar invasion more severe than what we endured earlier this month with daily sub zero temperatures readings from Philly on N.E.-- and, there will be snow opportunities.

Can you ask him his thoughts on snow

[8611Blizz]

As a break from the incestuous hen picking going on here, a certain meterorogist whose afd's are sorely missed, informs me what he's sees progged is hard to believe, and if accurate--we need to prepare for a cross polar invasion more severe than what we endured earlier this month with daily sub zero temperatures readings from Philly on N.E.-- and, there will be snow opportunities.

That seems to be the problem.  Also wouldn't it very hard to get snow with below zero numbers in Philly?

[powderfreak]

Yea look at the Leon year you referenced 1993-1994 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 7.9 9.1

then Jan

38.6

things turn around in a hurry was my point, showing a yTD total then using a map which shows annual is misleading and meant to hype the lack of snow. They want to be truthful, put up a map similar with each one of those years YTD, would not seem as bad but then again why would they want to do that.

True. It does change in a hurry. The change here is going to be the temps me thinks. Based on a lot of current data, the temps will be the headliner with any snow sort of a side-show if all the northeast gets caught up in -20C H85 temps.

[Typhoon Tip]

That seems to be the problem.  Also wouldn't it very hard to get snow with below zero numbers in Philly?

 

Heh, the problem can be broken out into amplitude vs occurrence though...  Which are we talking about? 

 

If the flow tips NNW in western Canada with a cross-polar feed, it is going to meet or even surpass that Midwest thing a couple weeks.  If the flow tips NNW and there is a -EPO ridge with less cross polar component, it would get very cold, but it may not carry quite the same "sting" factor.   

 

Is that a prognostic failure though -- not really.   In this case, it is very high confidence that cold loading is coming back to the story line of this winter.  The question is the magnitude.   

[eyewall]

Around 55-60 inches.  About 250% of what they have now.

 

BTV Stats (which don't include today since it isn't midnight yet):

 

27.9" for the season to date which is 6.3" below normal.

Last year at the same point the total was 41.8"

So almost 14" off last year's pace and the normal for an entire season is 83" and change. We could be in for a sub 50 season, possibly sub 40 if it really stays dry.

[OKpowdah]

WSI energy rocking February

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-for-february/

 

I was not aware he was using "their" MQI operationally at WSI.

[dendrite]

BTV Stats (which don't include today since it isn't midnight yet):

 

27.9" for the season to date which is 6.3" below normal.

Last year at the same point the total was 41.8"

So almost 14" off last year's pace and the normal for an entire season is 83" and change. We could be in for a sub 50 season, possibly sub 40 if it really stays dry.

Sub 40"???? What???

[Brian5671]

As a break from the incestuous hen picking going on here, a certain meterorogist whose afd's are sorely missed, informs me what he's sees progged is hard to believe, and if accurate--we need to prepare for a cross polar invasion more severe than what we endured earlier this month with daily sub zero temperatures readings from Philly on N.E.-- and, there will be snow opportunities.

The question is are the progs overdone?   I think some were on the last outbreak, had subzero into NYC and that didnt work out...also on the flip side, the models were too hot on several occasions last summer-wonder if there's an issue with them going to extremes on both ends?

[eyewall]

Sub 40"???? What???

 

It isn't likely I agree, the last one of those was 2011-2012 at 37.7". I believe BTV's all time low is around 34" but someone can correct me on that.

[Typhoon Tip]

Agree with Drag or whomever that was ... 

 

Multi-day CDC evaluation on-going of an important and persistent newly -EPO ... which graphically is progged in the same form/character as that which took place leading to the cold snaps earlier this month.  However, what makes this somewhat more impressive [potentially] is that for a time there is a temporal overlap in a 3-way coupled, +PNA/-EPO/-AO.  The -AO is demonstrated in a pronounce bifurcation of the Arctic domain space ... as individual, and operational blends have it. This is true in the GGEM, Euro, and GFS.  

 

You can see, or in the least ... make out the split here:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html

 

That's one of the most phenomenal examples of teleconnector convergence I've seen since coining that phrase; all it means is when you have disparate correlation sources targeting the same geographic region for a given signal.   

 

In this case?

 

COLD