40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 We had about week or so of snowier weather in sne. Thats gone and ftmp isn't returning before the calendar rolls barring a major change A majority of the few big qpf producers have been on the warmer side. My feeling on early January is without blocking the coastal areas in sne will continue to struggle with mild ups with systems flying across. When we have cold highs building down its dry when we have storms the cold is able to retreat enough to give up the toys the further south one goes. I don't see early January as particularly encouraging in lower sne. I see more slop but hopefully that evolves I've got 5.5 to 6" Ray. I was very much on the side of December being good. I'm just not nearly as confident with January as many are here. again for coastal sne I agree. Its always more precarious for lower sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I don't see anything wrong with January even on the Cape. It's always precarious near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I don't see anything wrong with January even on the Cape. It's always precarious near the Cape. Exactly. Didn't you just contradict yourself? What I meant is that climo is more precarious there, not the modeled pattern in particular....is that what you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Exactly. Didn't you just contradict yourself? What I meant is that climo is more precarious there, not the modeled pattern in particular....is that what you mean? Yes, even in the best of patterns it's precarious there. What I mean is that I don't see any red flags even for the Cape other than the usual flag....the Atlantic ocean. Which by the way is also a flag for me. However, get some 1045 highs north of Maine like the GFS op has and it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Buzzards and cape cod bay will be frozen by late Jan anyway. Actually..all wish casting aside, Has this ever occurred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Buzzards and cape cod bay will be frozen by late Jan anyway. Actually..all wish casting aside, Has this ever occurred? A lot of Cape Cod Bay was frozen or at least had the classic salt water slush in Jan 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Pattern is fine. Spoiled people thinking it has to be cold and snow. January looks good from my end. It doesn't have to be cold and snow, but c'mon you've said you don't like the rain and warmth either If you keep saying good pattern coming up you know people will equate it with snowy AND cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Pattern is fine. Spoiled people thinking it has to be cold and snow. January looks good from my end. We've averages below normal since 11/1. Snow is above normal in most locations. I think this beginning has been very nice IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It doesn't have to be cold and snow, but c'mon you've said you don't like the rain and warmth either If you keep saying good pattern coming up you know people will equate it with snowy AND cold. I don't like warmth, but the pattern is looking good going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 There's quite a bit to be optimistic about in the next few weeks. That's hard to argue, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 There's quite a bit to be optimistic about in the next few weeks. That's hard to argue, I think. If all works out it could be really cold for a period of time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If all works out it could be really cold for a period of time too.Definitely starting to get a Jan '94 look with the ridge expanding north of Alaska towards the Pole. Classic look for cold delivery into the Northern Tier with a Hudson Bay vortex/weak +NAO surrounded by higher heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 A lot of Cape Cod Bay was frozen or at least had the classic salt water slush in Jan 2004. I have pictures from Skakett Beach in Orleans that would make you think it was taken in Greenland!!! Amazing to see that. Bergs that were over a foot thick just crushed together by the tide/wind/currents. Real cool site. You got the feeling you could walk on it, but that of course would be a death sentence - even for a great swimmer. You would roll a berg over and then end up under a very heavy piece of ice in very cold water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Buzzards and cape cod bay will be frozen by late Jan anyway. Actually..all wish casting aside, Has this ever occurred? A lot of Cape Cod Bay was frozen or at least had the classic salt water slush in Jan 2004. Lived in marshfield that winter. Sea smoke in the mornings. Lobster boats frozen in harbor. Frozen waves. Many mornings below zero on the beach. I have some amazing pictures on the home computer ill post later. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 AO going negative very soon @splillo: If you're looking for cold, here it is. Developing +PNA / -AO pattern. Long duration cold for the northern tier. http://t.co/3Pf1Lxn2GJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 AO going negative very soon @splillo: If you're looking for cold, here it is. Developing +PNA / -AO pattern. Long duration cold for the northern tier. http://t.co/3Pf1Lxn2GJ Welcome to what we've been discussing for a few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Welcome to what we've been discussing for a few days! What? There's been talk from mets on here it was going to stay Positive. Not sure what you're talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 What? There's been talk from mets on here it was going to stay Positive. Not sure what you're talking about? meh - you don't pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Only concern is dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Only concern is dry pattern.The mets are saying several threats and plenty of clippers and miller b's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The mets are saying several threats and plenty of clippers and miller b's Which mets? The concern is dry - I think almost everyone would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Which mets? The concern is dry - I think almost everyone would agree. i mentioned yesterday i think overall pattern is good...threats and cold. that may be what he's referencing. i didn't give any specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 is something wrong with the board? it's loading like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Which mets? The concern is dry - I think almost everyone would agree. remember that week last Jan, 7 days of subfreezing cold and not .01 of of QPF...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 is something wrong with the board? it's loading like crap. Yeah for me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 What? There's been talk from mets on here it was going to stay Positive. Not sure what you're talking about? AO going negative very soon @splillo: If you're looking for cold, here it is. Developing +PNA / -AO pattern. Long duration cold for the northern tier. http://t.co/3Pf1Lxn2GJ DT has been talking about this for 5 days, JB has been talking about it for the last few winters. Steve D has been talking about it. Don has hinted at the possibility. Mets on here to some extent I think. I, (great mind that I am) has been asking whether the developing PNA would allow room for the PV to come south and ridging to build over it near the poles. I think eventually the NAO cooperates and perhaps we get retrogression giving a -NAO, -PNA, -EPO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Which mets? The concern is dry - I think almost everyone would agree. Phil, Will and Scooter. Scoots even said close by storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 i mentioned yesterday i think overall pattern is good...threats and cold. that may be what he's referencing. i didn't give any specifics. Reading comprehension FTL. I will also add the threat for a cutter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Phil, Will and Scooter. Scoots even said close by storm track Dude, we said it looks like a good pattern. That doesn't mean running to the streets proclaiming epic conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Phil, Will and Scooter. Scoots even said close by storm track Yeah possible... I just would worry about the whole thing getting shunted south and a STJ that doesn't want to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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