ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 NAM came around a bit, but still not biting. That is a huge flag. Not what one wants to see at this juncture, but does it really have any weight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 He has some serious issues. he's becoming more and more unhinged. Too many hours in his basement looking at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 He used to be a decent met...Dave Epstein. He used to work On FOX in CT.. Also DT used to work on WFSB(CBS) in CT as a met in the 80's I remember him on tv as a kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 He used to be a decent met...Dave Epstein. Channel 5 back in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 He used to be a decent met...Dave Epstein. Where is Epstein now? He's most assuredly not DT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 little weenie jackpot N or NW of BOS with 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Where is Epstein now? He's most assuredly not DT! He does hos own thing on Boston.com. He never was a weenie, but I always thought he broke it down and had rationale thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Where is Epstein now? He's most assuredly not DT! Dave Epstein @growingwisdom Meteorologist for http://Boston.com & WGME. Horticulturalist and professor. Where is Epstein now? He's most assuredly not DT! Met for Boston.com and WGME it says on Twitter page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 little weenie jackpot N or NW of BOS with 5"? S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Is expecting 4-6 for here reasonable or too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 You are fine for 4-6 I think. Even signs of a decent band there. Yeah I think 3-6 covers it here.. I could see ORH pounding down 7 or 8 just to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Is expecting 4-6 for here reasonable or too much? Reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah I think 3-6 covers it here.. I could see ORH pounding down 7 or 8 just to the NE I know this sounds biased, but I like my location here. Obviously I can't account for a mesoscale screw job, but the overall look seems favorable locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 NAM came around a bit, but still not biting. HRRR made a pretty serious change this run through 7 hours. I don't know..tough call. Something is amiss here. GFS may be overdoing it which would mean maybe just eastern areas get nipped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cantore is headed to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cantore is headed to Boston Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sticking with my 1-2 call here. Cover up the little grass spots and refresh the current snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like whatever we get before 1pm is bonus in SNE.. then we get some good snows something like 1-7pm.. and by the looks of how the snow is falling with a "unspectacular" radar i think this one has the chance to overperform.. should be closing in on an inch.. with snow coming down for 2.5 hours now.. I'll call this rate flurries with ocassionally light to moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 HRRR made a pretty serious change this run through 7 hours. I don't know..tough call. Something is amiss here. GFS may be overdoing it which would mean maybe just eastern areas get nipped? I think a general 4-5 with 6" amounts should cover it, but I leave the door open for a bit more in mesoscale banding. It's one of those things where we all know the risks..but it probably wouldn't be a good idea to go with the most snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sticking with my 1-2 call here. Cover up the little grass spots and refresh the current snow pack you have grass spots already? what a difference a few miles is i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 you have grass spots already? what a difference a few miles is i guess Well not really, just under some thick trees and what not. Still several inches in my actual yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I can walk on the snow in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 NAM still looks like a quick hitter for a lot of us in the southern area. Dry air moves in around 03z around 900mb. But sounding supports all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think a general 4-5 with 6" amounts should cover it, but I leave the door open for a bit more in mesoscale banding. It's one of those things where we all know the risks..but it probably wouldn't be a good idea to go with the most snow situation. Seems reasonable. HRR came around totally at 12z to the trailing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well not really, just under some thick trees and what not. Still several inches in my actual yard oh ok, makes more sense, i was thinking there was a massive drop in snow cover just to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Seems reasonable. HRR came around totally at 12z to the trailing moisture. I think there may be an enhanced band just NW of the low. Sort of a cstl front convergence deal. This is different from deformation banding in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Should be fun this afternoon for a few hours. Station ID: KTAN Lat: 41.87 Long: -71.02 NAM Model Run: 12Z DEC 17, 2013 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1022.7 1020.3 1011.4 1008.2 1007.1 1009.8 1015.3 Mean SLP (mb): 1024.6 1022.1 1013.0 1009.9 1008.8 1011.5 1017.0 2m agl Tmp (F): 15.5 26.3 33.9 30.2 26.0 34.1 30.8 2m agl Dewpt(F): 8.6 21.8 32.6 28.4 24.1 27.2 23.9 2m agl RH (%): 74 83 95 93 93 75 75 10m agl Dir: 348 89 96 330 315 302 289 10m agl Spd(kt): 4 10 8 11 16 15 13 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.01 0.27 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.01 0.28 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.7 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 165.4 509.5 816.2 185.2 70.0 17.6 103.8 Precip H20 (in): 0.16 0.41 0.55 0.41 0.28 0.24 0.21 Lifted Index(C): 15.9 7.7 3.1 6.1 5.5 9.5 16.1 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.4 3.8 2.7 -5.6 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 Thk1000-500mb(m)5242.6 5253.9 5310.7 5292.2 5214.5 5167.0 5205.2 Thk1000-850mb(m)1254.8 1267.7 1296.2 1294.4 1277.6 1274.9 1269.1 Thk850-700mb(m):1492.8 1504.3 1518.9 1511.6 1494.8 1473.0 1474.6 SWEAT Index: 94.9 206.2 331.8 104.1 121.3 91.4 121.6 Total Totals Idx 27.8 48.3 53.6 48.9 50.6 44.5 30.0 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 43 43 861 43 43 280 43 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000 -1000 584 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 Equil Prs (mb): 1023 1020 1011 1008 1007 861 897 Equil Hgt(amsl): 43 43 43 43 43 4158 3240 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 9.3 12.1 41.7 9.9 8.0 8.9 11.7 Showalter Index: 15.6 7.7 3.5 6.1 5.9 9.7 17.0 Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 0.0 0.0 Storm Dir (deg): 297 269 247 260 301 324 330 Storm Spd (kts): 22 28 31 24 20 21 28 2m HeatIndex(F): 16 26 34 30 26 34 31 2m WindChill(F): 8 16 26 20 12 24 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just got a look at the 6z GFS. Each run for the last 5 runs has ticked up .15-.20" qfp. Crazy trend, hard to believe. At this rate the 12z will be close to 1" in much of EMA. Tough call, this kind of reminds me of the Dec 2007(or 2008 can't remember?) bomb, that snuck up on us creating the worste rush hour traffic I've ever seen in the city, took me 7 hours to go 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cantore is headed to Boston Storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think there may be an enhanced band just NW of the low. Sort of a cstl front convergence deal. This is different from deformation banding in NE MA. I don't think I can buy a low track over the canal this time. The drier models are also the ones so close to the coast. Something has to give. The RAP/HRRR etc....each run they're tucking the followup moisture further up the coast off the Delmarva. The Euro misses with that but then again the Euro IMO has been woeful with this system and isn't likely to be right. There's going to be considerable follow on moisture question is does it just miss SE or does it get parts of the region. Still shocked at the rate of change in even in the rapid cycle models. The RAP continues to weaken that s/w responsible for this first system each run. EDIT: What i'm getting at is the rate of change is steady and pretty rapid towards a good solution. BUT not sure it's enough that I can buy the GFS yet. If the GFS comes in the same this run..or the RGEM holds serve we toss the others. I think it'll be precipitating in eastern areas NE areas most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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