HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hmmmm @NWSBoston: Technical difficulties on webpage, snowfall forecast graphic is incorrect. Correct one will be posted here shortly while we troubleshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That was 17 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hmmmm @NWSBoston: Technical difficulties on webpage, snowfall forecast graphic is incorrect. Correct one will be posted here shortly while we troubleshoot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 For posterity Expected Southern New England snow hasn't changed much last 24hrs: http://ow.ly/i/42YuF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I see this first batch pushd east and eaten up further ne. Id watch s coast for snow this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 man what is GFS missing here... once again squelches the lead impulse and allows vortmax behind it to dominate cyclogenesis would love for it to be correct but I'm cautious... at h5 verification: 6z NAM is very close to 9z RAP at 15z Tuesday, 6z GFS looks on its own would toss GFS but 3z SREFs also ticked up, and this is so close to something bigger Rgem is on board now too. Tosses the 10mm like way inland. Gfs stole the show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 so we're all tossing the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 so we're all tossing the euro?. 2 runs prior it was a sheared mess a few hundred miles east of the cape. Yesterday it caught on somewhat but focused just on the first system. I think it's been behind the curve for this event. Providing the Gfs gains additional support - and it's likely we see a move towards consensus as the 6z rgem did.... Long as that happens the euro is irrelevant to me with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 event is here basically and still trying to figure out the models Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 so we're all tossing the euro?I don't see anyone doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I don't recall such uncertainty in the now cast period. Amazing model differences. Gfs/RGEM hit it hard while everyone else moderate. Go with Harvey's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 weathafella, on 17 Dec 2013 - 07:02 AM, said: I don't recall such uncertainty in the now cast period. Amazing model differences. Gfs/RGEM hit it hard while everyone else moderate. Go with Harvey's map. Harv had a good map. Gefs, 0z ggem ensembles, 6z rgem are all on board with the Gfs. Even the nogaps at 0z slowed it down. Rap and hrrr both give support to a slower elongated system. I don't put a ton of stock in the euro. Maybe I will be wrong with that but as a whole it hasn't gotten a snow event right first this winter not sure it starts now. Northern stream ftl. Game on for you fella....I think rain is an issue for moi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 even better antecedent airmass than Saturday... ocean effect contribution should help again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 weathafella, on 17 Dec 2013 - 07:02 AM, said: I don't recall such uncertainty in the now cast period. Amazing model differences. Gfs/RGEM hit it hard while everyone else moderate. Go with Harvey's map. Harv had a good map. Gefs, 0z ggem ensembles, 6z rgem are all on board with the Gfs. Even the nogaps at 0z slowed it down. Rap and hrrr both give support to a slower elongated system. I don't put a ton of stock in the euro. Maybe I will be wrong with that but as a whole it hasn't gotten a snow event right first this winter not sure it starts now. Northern stream ftl. Game on for you fella....I think rain is an issue for moi. I I'll be surprised if you're not colder given the dynamics IF it performs. Witches titty this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just call it 4-8 for Pete and we can all go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 even better antecedent airmass than Saturday... ocean effect contribution should help again Temps_7am_12_17_2013.png Glad you back brother! I was getting a little worried. Actually slowed as a walked past yr house the last week or so. This is a tough system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I I'll be surprised if you're not colder given the dynamics IF it performs. Witches titty this morning. I think we will see this perform. The gfs will be more right ? Is to what extent. Rgem already flipped and experience dictates when it does that it doesn't flip back. Rap is coming around steadily too. Overnight should be snowy. Wxniss that'd be a nice bonus. If we can get the nam etc to realize this one isn't cutting over ema be interesting to see what they come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Man it looks like it's gonna rip after 3:00 or 4:00 for most folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 6Z GFS bufkit values: tqpf: kbos: 0.74 kpym: 0.60 klwm: 0.63 korh: 0.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 6Z GFS bufkit values: tqpf: kbos: 0.74 kpym: 0.60 klwm: 0.63 korh: 0.67 Lol...4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hrrr isn't all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 even better antecedent airmass than Saturday... ocean effect contribution should help again Temps_7am_12_17_2013.png At the lower levels it certainly is but upstairs I'm not so sure. I want to say maybe a hair warmer at quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 so we're all tossing the euro? I liked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Glad you back brother! I was getting a little worried. Actually slowed as a walked past yr house the last week or so. This is a tough system. ha! thanks jerry been reading > posting... forced a time out with a crazy busy stretch at work / i'm revealing this mania to my better half gently but nice to know you guys in the new england weather family are always here don't know how to sit on this one... 3-5 vs. 6-8 for our area... hard to believe NAM and EURO are so wrong in the 18 hour range, but GFS seems to be pulling others (RGEM, SREFs) aboard... watch 12z NAM abruptly flip to warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 ha! thanks jerry been reading > posting... forced a time out with a crazy busy stretch at work / i'm revealing this mania to my better half gently but nice to know you guys in the new england weather family are always here don't know how to sit on this one... 3-5 vs. 6-8 for our area... hard to believe NAM and EURO are so wrong in the 18 hour range, but GFS seems to be pulling others (RGEM, SREFs) aboard... watch 12z NAM abruptly flip to warning criteria It's a classic case where we have a chance of something big (long shot) when the clipper hits the ocean. There are some signs that it can but it's never good to bank in it as there are risk factors in almost every case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Bust potential is huge. Two camps, best approach ATT the compromised 5" ORH eastward. It's so close to kick-off that future model runs are mostly insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hrrr isn't all that impressive.HRRR and euro op were best with temps this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 New srefs 0.5+ within 30 miles of the ocean in all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 09z SREFs are out. Bumped QPF up just a bit from 03z. All of SRI/ SE MA up into Cosatal ME within the 0.5" line. 0.25" line for just about everyone else. 2M temps look about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 New srefs 0.5+ within 30 miles of the ocean in all of New England. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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