CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This has the look of one of those MCV type vorts in the midwest. The low is basically a mini comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I like the NAM solution...surface low a bit further south which means a bit less QPF back this way but squashes mixing concerns near the coast. Wouldn't mind slowing it down just a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lets hope the NAM is actually semi-useful on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If in fact the second s/w is dominate would the main snow fall occur on Wed? Reason I ask is I am flying home for the Holidays mid day Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This has the look of one of those MCV type vorts in the midwest. The low is basically a mini comma head. Posting mobile so not looking at NAM but def sounds like the Euro there. The Euro had a similar look...as did the GFS which is why I had high totals across E MA. While this is all good to see models often do tend to overdo the strength if these clippers at this range...I guess something to keep in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This has the look of one of those MCV type vorts in the midwest. The low is basically a mini comma head. Could see some high snowfall rates with this mini bomb. I think the second shortwave if it gets help from the first shortwave in just getting more amped up, i think could send high snowfall totals. NAM has .75" to 1.00" line just northeast of Provincetown, MA. Just miles away from that killer band of high DBZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Verbatim, many in this area would see higher impact from this than yesterday I don't want to go too far off topic but this recent one ending today was fairly high impact at least around Boston thanks to the flash freeze and skating rink sidewalks. I was able walk on the pack late afternoon which is always fun. More snow on top Tuesday.. I cleared the space for the garbage cans for my next door neighbor and me. She said...thanks but you should have waited...42 on Wednesday....I said no.....that is not Wednesdays weather and besides I enjoy it. An old man in his snow...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Maybe a repeat of the December 9th 2005 mini vort bomb, with the exception being the winds. That was fast mover and dumped 16" of snow in the interior, exception being track is further south with this clipper and its weaker currently on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Could see some high snowfall rates with this mini bomb. I think the second shortwave if it gets help from the first shortwave in just getting more amped up, i think could send high snowfall totals. NAM has .75" to 1.00" line just northeast of Provincetown, MA. Just miles away from that killer band of high DBZ. Hopefully the NAM is onto something. I think we want to cheer for the first one to weaken and the second s/w to be dominant. I suppose it could work the other way around, but then the second s/w may be a kicker. We'll see what the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Maybe a repeat of the December 9th 2005 mini vort bomb, with the exception being the winds. That was fast mover and dumped 16" of snow in the interior, exception being track is further south with this clipper and its weaker currently on the models. Man I would not use that analog. In fact, don't ever again..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lead shortwave delays surface cyclogenesis just long enough to prevent a pretty significant storm for most of SNE. If it were a little weaker, I think the trof might actually start to go negative over NYS. Pretty close as it is on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Man I would not use that analog. In fact, don't ever again..lol. Blasphemy to compare this thing to 12/9/05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just peaked at FOUS.... Rough cut 0.66 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If in fact the second s/w is dominate would the main snow fall occur on Wed? Reason I ask is I am flying home for the Holidays mid day Weds. should be done by wed am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 obligatory RPM post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I don't want to go too far off topic but this recent one ending today was fairly high impact at least around Boston thanks to the flash freeze and skating rink sidewalks. I was able walk on the pack late afternoon which is always fun. More snow on top Tuesday.. I cleared the space for the garbage cans for my next door neighbor and me. She said...thanks but you should have waited...42 on Wednesday....I said no.....that is not Wednesdays weather and besides I enjoy it. An old man in his snow...lol. I should have worded it different. Higher snow totals as opposed to impact. And I just love being in the snow in any capacity. I'll snowblow multiple times during some storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That was an older run. New run is around 20-40% of that..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 obligatory RPM post... They probably won't want to look at the 00z run if they like those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They probably won't want to look at the 00z run if they like those numbers.Cut back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hopefully the NAM is onto something. I think we want to cheer for the first one to weaken and the second s/w to be dominant. I suppose it could work the other way around, but then the second s/w may be a kicker. We'll see what the GFS says. I completely agree. I'm rooting for the first scenario. A few of the previous runs and some ensemble members of every global show this (and yield .5 - 1" QPF). And over the past few days the 2nd wave has increased in strength/amplitute (well really both waves have). The right mix could yield a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well I guess we all live the NAM now. This should be an exciting system though! Clippers moving into an air mass like this tend to produce well, given they already at least have moisture associated with them and this system looks to have that. I also wouldn't rule out the northern stream digging a but more than what's modeled which would only benefit us...stronger s/w energy and stronger lift. I also like the potential for convective elements...could see Thundersnow potential across eastern MA given steepening lapse rates and the fact there is also a decent dry punch at 700 that shoots north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Did that actually get posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Blasphemy to compare this thing to 12/9/05. I'm sorry, I know it was a record breaker, but come on, i was just using it as a possible example with the mini vortex nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Cut back?indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 indeed I would not worry about the models that cut back QPF from this storm, very vigorous upper level shortwave over Saskatchewan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Gridded data has me snowing at 14 degrees all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just peaked at FOUS.... Rough cut 0.66 for BOS. run me BDR and PVD, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 run me BDR and PVD, thanks They're not part of the FWC network. But ironically I just looked at snow numbers on the met guidance. BDL: 4 ORH/PVD/PYM: 6 Hya: 4 BOS/bed: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They're not part of the FWC network. But ironically I just looked at snow numbers on the met guidance. BDL: 4 ORH/PVD/PYM: 6 Hya: 4 BOS/bed: 8 bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They're not part of the FWC network. But ironically I just looked at snow numbers on the met guidance. BDL: 4 ORH/PVD/PYM: 6 Hya: 4 BOS/bed: 8 temps low teens, good lift saturated column, 20-1 stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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