Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am just a lurker mostly here - not very weather savvy - although I have really learned a lot about models, etc. from reading here. Think it is more prudent to read than comment!!! Not many folks from MS here it appears but since this forum does include Mississippi, would someone please update every once in a while if there is any potential for wintry precip in Mississippi - specifically East Central MS close to MS State Univ. We are having a few snow flurries this afternoon on and off although it looks like the heavier flurries are off to my southwest. Really enjoy following this forum - am jealous of everyone's knowledge!. Jump right on in...we can put Mississippi in our discussions. With this suppressed pattern, could be some opportunities. Look at Houston now. Crazy business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z Euro 51 ensemble members: KnoxvilleAll show trace or more20 show inch or more9 show 2 inches or more5 show 4 inches or more1 shows a footEnsemble mean of 1.4NashvilleAll but 9 show a trace or more17 show inch or more7 show 2 inches or more5 show 4 inches or more1 shows 9 inchesEnsemble mean of 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z Euro 51 ensemble members: Knoxville All show trace or more 20 show inch or more 9 show 2 inches or more 5 show 4 inches or more 1 shows a foot Ensemble mean of 1.4 Nashville All but 9 show a trace or more 17 show inch or more 7 show 2 inches or more 5 show 4 inches or more 1 shows 9 inches Ensemble mean of 1.1 Is this for the full 240 hr run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z Euro 51 ensemble members: Knoxville All show trace or more 20 show inch or more 9 show 2 inches or more 5 show 4 inches or more 1 shows a foot Ensemble mean of 1.4 Nashville All but 9 show a trace or more 17 show inch or more 7 show 2 inches or more 5 show 4 inches or more 1 shows 9 inches Ensemble mean of 1.1 Is this for the full 240 hr run Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Man, what a COLD pattern we are stuck in. It's been about as crazy cold as possible without solid snow cover. Stove, I would assume that KTRI is similar to Knoxville wrt to the Euro Ensembles..........? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Man, what a COLD pattern we are stuck in. It's been about as crazy cold as possible without solid snow cover. Stove, I would assume that KTRI is similar to Knoxville wrt to the Euro Ensembles..........? More clipper love Bristol All have measurable snow 39 have 1 inch or more 18 have 2 inches or more 8 have 4 inches or more 3 have 6 inches or more 1 has a foot Ensemble Mean of 2.4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just glancing at the GEFS 12z and it appears most individuals must be a bit deeper with the cold from 192-300. The 850 line stays around I-40, or even a bit further south (except from 252-264 where it briefly heads into southern KY) at times for most of that timeframe with ABUNDANT moisture being shown. Time will tell, but I am guessing there are some pretty tasty individual members showing quite a prolonged event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sure looks like the flood gates are fixing to open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sure looks like the flood gates are fixing to open. If you are looking for warmth in the first couple of weeks of February, this is what you want to see. Our only hope is the NAO and AO can save us. There has been some indication we might pop a -NAO, but I don't see that on Jax's charts. Just for the record..................yuck, those are awful. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 For anyone that follows, there are actually a couple of individual GFS members from 12z that give 3-5 inches for a good chunk of east TN. One of them looked kind of screwy and one of them kind of looked like the 122 Canadian from today (just with a more expansive QPF field). I will again say, if we can somehow luck into a miracle and get some QPF back this way, the ratios would likely be insane (20-1 or better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That PNA chart is wonky. It show's the PNA as -1.8 right now, it's actually +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I wish the GGEM was ever trustworthy, it shifted N and W by several hundred miles with it's precip field from 00z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 In order to have ANY chance with this one we will need a phase. It's pretty simple actually. One hasn't been shown at this point, so...........I'd say don't get your hopes up. It's the period just after this going into next weekend and beyond that might be our chance. Ah yes, the ever present 180+ threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Statewide light snow Thursday night on the 12z Euro, good for 1-2 inches. Like it has been showing, as well as the GFS, the Sunday system has moisture to work with but the freezing line battleground is in the Ohio Valley. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This might need to go in the banter section, but it's disappointing that the coast is gonna get hammered and we in the TN valley struggle to get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS = frigid/dry/frigid/dry/frigid/dry/frigid/dry/frigid/dry/warmer/verywet. It's looking like it's going to keep this 200+ hour storm as it's moving it into the 180s now. But it's a warm/rain storm so it'll nail this one a week out with no problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM @ 84 looks interesting to say the least. System building over the NW GOM. Folks, might be time to wake and get out of bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hints of a phase on the 0z NAM...GFS doesn't have it yet. If it phases, we are in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm hoping with all the hope I can muster. Sadly the NAM at 84 is not particularly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z NAM looking like a wave rides up the front. Not a bad look. I think the models don't have the energy portrayed correctly as evidenced by the wide range of solutions. The 0z Euro (days 7-10) quickly breaks down the cold pattern thereafter. If it is to be believed a -PNA occurs, and with little blocking in the Atlantic, a true forch is portrayed. A new pattern or a thaw, I don't know. But when the trough went West in December, it took a month to get it out of there. For those who wanted a negative PNA....remember the only time we have gotten cold at all is when it was positive. With no blocking in the Atlantic, the stage is set for at least 7-10 days of above normal temps and zero chances for frozen precip. to begin Feb. Without the +PNA this winter we would have torched. As it is, we have had a few things to track and finally some old school cold to show our kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm hoping with all the hope I can muster. Sadly the NAM at 84 is not particularly good. Might want to see Dacula's comments also on the SE board. Mentions it looks like a phase. If NAM is correct its portrayal opens the door for a shift NW. Can it get to the Plateau? That might be tough. But Knoxville eastward has something to watch. It will be a stretch to get here, but I have seen many times where a North Carolina storms hits us at the last minute. Odds are in their favor. But the NAM actually could put them and us in the game. Time will tell. Something to watch. I am not saying a storm is coming, but the NAM looks realistic IMO. Its features are more westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 FWIW, the Euro weeklies have been money this winter. Seems like I remember Mr. Bob mentioning a week in early Feb would be warm with a return to cold (based on those weeklies) mid to late month. Also, it now appears that January will completely erase December's substantial early warmth and bring us to just below normal for the two months combined. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Here is the 9z SREF potential for greater than .25 precip for the time period everyone is discussing. Saw this discussed on the SE board. Went and looked for myself. Is it right? IDK. But it is west. edit: added qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 FWIW, the 12z NAM makes a major attempt to phase the system over the Baja w/ the northern stream...not there yet. But if it phases, it is coming northwest. Right now the snow "belt" is over SC and central GA. IMO, that is coming northwest. How far, IDK? Good trend. Burger has some great disco on the SE board. Mentions a few negatives for the 12z run as well. Great disco over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I just can't jump on the 84 hour NAM train while the GFS and Euro both agree. 12z GFS comes in and tells the NAM....you soooo crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I hope the trend is indeed our friend. I just don't know if it's going to be able to must up much for the Tennessee Valley though. Going to be a ton of dry air in place and as of now, we're on the fringe. Normally, without a -NAO I'd fear it cutting west of the Apps. This year the +NAO hasn't mattered to storm track that much at all and it's been a coastal bonanza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM, which had been the most inland/robust model, sends everything out to sea for the most part. Either the NAM is pulling the coup of the century or it's almost fork time for this one. If nothing changes between now and the Sunday model suite, I would think this one is forked for the Tennessee Valley. This clipper, while still being fairly weak compared to clippers that track well for this area, at least makes me not mind a few more of them coming through. But all in all, I'm all for any kind of pattern change. I don't care if we do get warm at this point. The pattern we are in just isn't working at all but it has nearly doubled my electric bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12z GGEM, which had been the most inland/robust model, sends everything out to sea for the most part. Either the NAM is pulling the coup of the century or it's almost fork time for this one. If nothing changes between now and the Sunday model suite, I would think this one is forked for the Tennessee Valley. This clipper, while still being fairly weak compared to clippers that track well for this area, at least makes me not mind a few more of them coming through. But all in all, I'm all for any kind of pattern change. I don't care if we do get warm at this point. The pattern we are in just isn't working at all but it has nearly doubled my electric bill. The 9z SREF probabilities look surprisingly good for TN. I'm not sold on any solution yet and won't be until Sun/Mon. I'm also watching closely the situation next weekend. The GFS shows it too warm but I think there is wiggle room there for a snow storm. I'm also fine with a warm up. A reset of the pattern is a good thing. Lots of winter to go with Feb and early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 9z SREF probabilities look surprisingly good for TN. I'm not sold on any solution yet and won't be until Sun/Mon. I'm also watching closely the situation next weekend. The GFS shows it too warm but I think there is wiggle room there for a snow storm. I'm also fine with a warm up. A reset of the pattern is a good thing. Lots of winter to go with Feb and early March. The SREF is run off the WRF/NAM members mostly. That's why it's showing a similar solution to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I do not think it has been modeled properly for Weds. I am betting on somebody getting a surprise storm. Last week's snow up the coast was not modeled accurately until within 48 hrs. Flow is too fast and the models can't keep up. GFS long range is attempting to build the cold back into the East. Time will tell. Though I am well north of you all, finally got some snow today. So, I am not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.