Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

December 14-15 Winter Storm Part Two

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
earthlight

earthlight

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I would personally not get overly excited about the Rgem.

I've been following that model for years and would wait for the 6z and 12z runs to see if it holds and shows consistency.

 

It has essentially been showing the same thing every run since 48 hours, and the GGEM too. Guess it could tick warmer at the last minute but it's been very consistent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

All of them have been getting a little warmer each run except the RGEM, in addition the cold air up north is advancing slower then I predicted. These are the main two reason I had to deduct the inch and warmed it up.

I'm going with 35% chance at 4" now for Central Park. I'd say more likely they end up with 3", maybe less if the trends on other models tonight are right. Going to be downright depressing after 8pm or so for most of the coastal/city folk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Temps are hanging on WAY to long/high in midtown. I dont think we get down to 25 like is forecast. I think this keeps totals on the lower end of the guidance. Hopefully they plunge quickly, but im not sure that will happen.

This happens almost all the time before a storm. Clouds roll in and temps end up warmer than expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JetsPens87

JetsPens87

Posted
Posted

All of them have been getting a little warmer each run except the RGEM, in addition the cold air up north is advancing slower then I predicted. These are the main two reason I had to deduct the inch and warmed it up.

My temp has already jumped from a low of 22 back up to 25. Models seem insistent on a more amped tucked in low. ..And the surface temps and 850 look to warm quicker. Really this airmass is not "frigid"and those hoping for a miracluous surprise will likely get a reality check with a low tucked in that close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BlueSkiesFading

BlueSkiesFading

Posted
Posted

Does anyone have the MM5? It's usually a halfway decent hi-res model, but I haven't seen a single post about it. Not sure if that means it's warm, or if people have just forgotten about it.

 

Also, for those freaking out about the current temps running warm, the winds are now out of the North thoughout the area so it looks like the cold front has finally moved through. Boston's down to 14, ORH and Albany are down to 11, and the Hartford/BDL area is in the low 20's. All of those locations have had their dews drop into the single digits. Not sure exactly how that will translate down this way, but it should start to seep down over the next few hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Despite all the gnashing of teeth, the NWS didn't really change the forecast much, with warning and advisory locations unchanged, and snowfall forecasts largely unchanged, although a bit less snow and a bit more ZR was put into the transition zone, generally near I-95.  For example, at my location, in Metuchen, they had predicted 4-6" of snow and 0.05" of ZR earlier, but with the updated package, they're predicting 3-5" of snow and about 0.15" of ZR before the changeover to rain - similar shaving back of snowfall and a modest increase in freezing rain was predicted along most of the I-95 corridor (I live 1/2 mile from the NJ TPK).

 

Interestingly, the NWS in Philly is predicting a bit less snow than the NWS in NYC, especially at the borders between the 2 offices, i.e., Union/Essex Counties are generally predicted to get 6-8" of snow by the NWS-NY, while adjacent areas in eastern Somerset/Morris Counties are generally predicted to get 4-6" of snow. 
 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/

 

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

 

 

 

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

Depends what you consider fine. Pretty certain NYC just went from ~15mm to barely 10 and less than that in southern sections. Nenj just cut back by several inches of snow.

 

 

10mm is ~.4" of LE -- that's certainly better than 1-2." It fits the theme of probably 2-5" for NYC, with 2" in Brooklyn gradually increasing to around 5" as one heads to the Bronx and southern Westchester. 

 

6"+ in NYC was always a longshot, IMO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

Funny how the RGEM just does not want to spread that 20-30mm zone into NW NJ (i.e. Sussex County) lol It seems this willl be a typical (though that has not seemed to happen as much in recent years) 30-40+ miles N&W of the NYC event with regard to best snows. Sussex, Warren, Western Morris, Western Passaic, NW Bergen, Orange & Northern Westchester Counties and those beyond should do well. Probably 5-10" with lowest S&E where sleet, fr & maybe rain become a factor and highest N&W with mainly all snow. 5-8" is my call in Sparta as I may flirt with the sleet / fr line at some point depending on eventual specific outcome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...