EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 From warning * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR SUNRISESATURDAY. SNOW FALL INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOONWHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME.SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT OVERMOST OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I know what he's talking about. This map has much less for my area than the previous map. 8-10 on the old map to 4-6 on this one. What happened? current forecast map is what it should have been this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maps and forecast don't make reality. People need to learn this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maps and forecast don't make reality. People need to learn this. I think we know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maps and forecast don't make reality. People need to learn this. same with taking model runs verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maps and forecast don't make reality. People need to learn this. same with taking model runs verbatim Hush your mouth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think we know that. Some people don't. lol. Some people spaz out over .05" less qpf or NWS changing forecast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just to add, my last post was not meant to any recent. Just a earlier post. I'm not good at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think we know that. Some people don't. lol. Some people spaz out over .05" less qpf or NWS changing forecast a bit. That's why I'm a big advocate of keeping expectations low. Forecasts are always subject to change, abd reality doesn't always match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM takes the southern tier for a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Some people don't. lol. Some people spaz out over .05" less qpf or NWS changing forecast a bit. A drop from 8-10 to 4-6 is a little more than "a bit". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If the Canadian were to be realized that would be on heck of a storm for the LSV. Would not be surprised to see double digit snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Interesting forecast discussion update from State College: -- Changed Discussion -- CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SET UP FOR A CLASSIC CENTRAL PA SNOW STORMON SATURDAY.A STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AREA OF TEXAS WILLMOVE TOWARD KY BY MID DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING ANDBEGINNING TO BOMB AWAY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NEW NAMSHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE WARM ADVECTION AND UPWARDVERTICAL MOTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURSWHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME.THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW DRAWS A TONGUE OF MOISTUNSTABLE AIR UP ALONG THE COASTAL PLANE WHERE STABILITY IS FCST TOERODE SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY BRINGING THAT RAREST OF WINTERWONDERS...THUNDER SNOW. THE BEST PLACE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVERFAR SERN PA INTO NJI TOYED WITH SNOWFALL GRAPHICS A BIT MAINLY OVER SERN AREAS WHERETHE WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT EVENTHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKLEY. IN GENERAL WE LOOK GOOD FOR AWIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH SNOW WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVERCENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA WHERE SNOW SHUD BE FLUFFIER.PRECIP SHUD WIND DOWN RAPIDLY SAT EVENING AND BE OVER IN ALL BUTNERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW REACHES OUR LATITUDE. NEW NAMSHOWS SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 25MB/6HR AS THE STORM MOVES UP INTOTHE GULF OF MAINE. BOMBOGENESIS! -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Could very well happen. Interesting forecast discussion update from State College: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If the Canadian were to be realized that would be on heck of a storm for the LSV. Would not be surprised to see double digit snow accumulations. The RGEM has been doing stellar this year. It was the only model that said a non event on Tuesday. Look what it has now. 20MM+ that's .8"+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If the Canadian were to be realized that would be on heck of a storm for the LSV. Would not be surprised to see double digit snow accumulations. Its plausible, but who knows? Last week I expected 2 inches on Sunday and had 7 in 3 hours. If there is that much instability etc who knows where the bands will set up. Many wild cards here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 My call: IPT 8.7 UNV 8.1 JST 8.4 MDT 3.7 AVP 4.6 AOO 7.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don't envy Mets one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS looks juicier for CPA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs also looks warmer. There's gonna be some rip roaring snow though for someone in central pa before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We look to stay all snow until precip. moves out on GFS. Liking a nice ripping snow up this way now!! Plenty of precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sorry guys we should cancel this event. lol. This was from yesterday and it is still funny as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS looks a tad warmer than the NAM. Tomorrow night looks interesting on the NAM AND GFS for someone to get a lot of heavy snow in a very short period of time. Will that be along the Mason-Dixon Line? The pa turnpike? 422? 78? I just watched Cantores Harrisburg thunder snow to put me in the mood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS is a great run wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS looks a tad warmer than the NAM. Tomorrow night looks interesting on the NAM AND GFS for someone to get a lot of heavy snow in a very short period of time. Will that be along the Mason-Dixon Line? The pa turnpike? 422? 78? I just watched Cantores Harrisburg thunder snow to put me in the mood... If anyone from the weather channel would ever come around here, i'd go shoo them away with a broom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 All you need to know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If anyone from the weather channel would ever come around here, i'd go shoo them away with a broom. Totally off topic but I did live shots alongside of cantore during the Lee flood in NEPA. He's a good guy and a weenie at heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockinRobbie Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sorry guys we should cancel this event. lol. This was from yesterday and it is still funny as hell. I am enjoying this map to an unhealthy degree. Definitely appear as if mixing may be more of a concern than some first perceived; especially further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 All you need to know.... Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looking at current obs to the west... it is not taking long for what the radar shows to be reaching the ground... already moderate snow near chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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