Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Don't think so...down sloping from mainly westerly winds helped to bump higher than expected. Front to our north, and it makes sense. Temps will wet bulb into the mid/upper 20s as the precip starts. Dewpoint depressions will be pretty dramatic tomorrow morningExactly ! We still have 3" snowpack down here. Dews are low and temps will bulb out low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Temps around Harrisburg have been a little warmer than forecast today. Any chance it has an effect on what happens tomorrow? I'm thinking that the roads might stay just wet until the heavier stuff comes down in the afternoon. Dew point temps around here are still in the teens... with cloud cover not arriving here until after sunset we are golden to easily drop into the 20s tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 3-6". Not changing that unless we go above or below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mforty Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So if I wanted to drive to my brother's in Waynesboro Franklin county Pa (because of a b-day party), what time do you think it would be safe to hit the road from Wilmington, DE? I'll be taking my 4 year old and my car is on 4th season winter tires... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So if I wanted to drive to my brother's in Waynesboro Franklin county Pa (because of a b-day party), what time do you think it would be safe to hit the road from Wilmington, DE? I'll be taking my 4 year old and my car is on 4th season winter tires... Right now. lol. After noon it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So if I wanted to drive to my brother's in Waynesboro Franklin county Pa (because of a b-day party), what time do you think it would be safe to hit the road from Wilmington, DE? I'll be taking my 4 year old and my car is on 4th season winter tires... The earlier, the better. It'll be an adventure getting home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mforty Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The earlier, the better. It'll be an adventure getting home. Fortunately, I'd be spending the night and would probably make the trip home Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looking past tomorrow for a brief moment, we have a flight out of BWI earlllly next Thursday to Texas. Has anyone seen anything long-to-mid range for next Wednesday evening/Thursday morning that I should be aware of? Last I looked it seemed to be pretty quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I am not seeing that. Actually it appears less amped. Hard to tell until I look at grid numbers. Yeah, I was wrong. I was looking at the instantweathermaps graphics, which are small and hard to distinguish at times. Cobb text output reduces LNS qpf from about 1.1" to about 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That has to be about the prettiest clown map I have seen in a Long Long time. Just Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM is still at it here lol. 131215/0000Z 30 12013KT 24.2F SNOW 15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 12:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131215/0100Z 31 12011KT 23.1F SNOW 16:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.164 13:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol..if NAM is right IPT and UNV are buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Radar looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gfs run looks juicy still for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How are we looking fellas, just got home from work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Radar looks interesting. MDT: Trace LNS: Flash flood warning UNV: Send all backhoes immediately to dig out ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Radar looks interesting. MDT: Trace LNS: Flash flood warning UNV: Send all backhoes immediately to dig out ??? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The existence of the STJ has been huge so far this year. It was virtually missing all of last year and the front end of all these type of systems always fizzled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Noob question: what does stj stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Subtropical Jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Subtropical Jet Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Interesting facebook posts for NWS Binghamton: Poster: Seems you guys have been trying to downplay this storm from the start. You seemed to have advisory criteria in mind as early as last night & it seems like there was no changing your minds for some reason? All other counties west have gone to warnings (including neighboring Colombia). Most other outlets see us in a 6"-10" range & all snow whereas your office just will not let go of the mixing idea. What are other outlets seeing or not seeing that you are? I know forecasting these storms is so tough so just curious I guess? Thanks! NWS Response: Thanks for the question and we have some answers. We are very flexible with the forecast in terms of we don't lock into an idea without a willingness to change. Here are some items that concern us for a heavy snowfall event. Keep in mind some areas will see higher amounts east of I-81 especially in NY State. 1) QPF amounts often are overdone (total liquid). If you read the QPF straight up (using a 10:1 ratio) you just get to warning criteria on some models, others you fall short. This is assuming that this will be correct, which often it is not. The models struggle the MOST with getting QPF right. 2) The snowflakes may be fine, and our snow ratios are not as high as what the colder temps would indicate. We like to see a lot of lift (rising air) in a moist and cold layer aloft. This does not match up very well during the event. Cold temps imply good snow ratios but its much more than just temps. It has a lot to do with what is or is not happening upstairs at the cloud level. 3) This is a split system. The main low is coming in from the west, while transferring to a new low up the coast. These type of situations often under-perform in the middle (our area), as the primary low along the coast does not deepen fast enough until its moving to our north and east. 4) Looking at past analogs, we are most confident in a solid advisory event. Low end warning, perhaps, 80% confidence in that, no. Hope this helps I wanted to ask why I am surrounded on three sides by warnings but have a advisory... I have to ask a question: Do NWS mets get bonuses if they don't issue warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The existence of the STJ has been huge so far this year. It was virtually missing all of last year and the front end of all these type of systems always fizzled out. That is an interesting observation concerning the involvement of the STJ. This certainly looks more potent on the front end than a few I recall from last season. A question for anyone with the expertise. Is this considered a Miller B storm? It doesn't quite look like it to my untrained eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That is an interesting observation concerning the involvement of the STJ. This certainly looks more potent on the front end than a few I recall from last season. A question for anyone with the expertise. Is this considered a Miller B storm? It doesn't quite look like it to my untrained eyes. All there is here is "front end". This is waa driven. The h5 support is an open wave well to the nw. There is no closed upper low or bombing low. This is not really a dynamic storm. It's simple a lot of moisture being thrown into cold air. We get screwed when there is a bombing coastal that develops a closed circulation and thus cuts off moisture transport into central pa as the ccb precip band develops and consolidates. However, for places east of the sus river sometimes if the secondary low takes a coastal hugging track they do well like the Xmas 2002 storm. This storm tracks so close I would bet places from mdt northeast would do well anyways but that would screw over unv and ipt. This is different though. It's a waa thump then dry slot. The surface low isnt bombing and the h5 never closes off or even goes neutral tilt. The low is just jumping to the coast because it can't go through the cold wedge down the apps. The upper support is well back in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's quiet in here. Not sure if that's good or bad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I bet 00z NAM will get activity moving in here...that's what normally happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Snow ratios on the 18z GFS were better than the 12z by a mile. As a result, snow went up from 4.9" to 7.0" for KUNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 All there is here is "front end". This is waa driven. The h5 support is an open wave well to the nw. There is no closed upper low or bombing low. This is not really a dynamic storm. It's simple a lot of moisture being thrown into cold air. We get screwed when there is a bombing coastal that develops a closed circulation and thus cuts off moisture transport into central pa as the ccb precip band develops and consolidates. However, for places east of the sus river sometimes if the secondary low takes a coastal hugging track they do well like the Xmas 2002 storm. This storm tracks so close I would bet places from mdt northeast would do well anyways but that would screw over unv and ipt. This is different though. It's a waa thump then dry slot. The surface low isnt bombing and the h5 never closes off or even goes neutral tilt. The low is just jumping to the coast because it can't go through the cold wedge down the apps. The upper support is well back in the lakes. Ahaa, thanks for the explanation! Is this why perhaps the models haven't waffled as much as some storms. Is this type of storm easier to forecast at least from a qpf amount if not type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Everything is .7" or more basically, so unless precip busts low we're looking at 7+. If we can get some good ratios who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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