Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 My first call for LAF is 4-7". Going with an average storm ratio of 10-13:1 to account for some uncertainty in the thermal profiles. Forcing supports at least a few hour period where rates could be .5-1" per hour. Hopefully can refine/trim this range as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I had a gut feeling with the snowpack in place here around Dayton that this system would take another favorable track. I think there is more agreement with the models that western Ohio could see a decent amount. Thinking the 4'' rang but 6'' isn't out of the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro went a bit south compared to the 12z for northern IL. NAM all on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 ECMWF came back south. Looks like a general agreement between the ECMWF/GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ECMWF showed a nice narrow band of LES developing off Lake Ontario for the GTA. I believe 0Z Nam showed such a similar thing. Through 75 hours it does look a bit wetter than the 12z Euro, disregarding the LES band for the GTA. I think we starting to see some consistency. I'll give it till 12z tomorrow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ECMWF showed a nice narrow band of LES developing off Lake Ontario for the GTA. I believe 0Z Nam showed such a similar thing. Through 75 hours it does look a bit wetter than the 12z Euro, disregarding the LES band for the GTA. I think we starting to see some consistency. I'll give it till 12z tomorrow, lol. Ya it looks better than the 12z. looks like 4-6'' on this run with lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Bad news upstream but it looks like it turned out alright for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Bad news upstream but it looks like it turned out alright for us. ya i'll take the 4-6'' and run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ya i'll take the 4-6'' and run lol Do you get raw QPF output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Do you get raw QPF output? No I use the wxbell snow maps which shows about 4'' for YYZ which is better than the 2'' it showed at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No I use the wxbell snow maps which shows about 4'' for YYZ which is better than the 2'' it showed at 12z. Gotchya. Nice to know. Do you get any wind plots? If so, is the flow still favourable for LES? EDIT: never mind. Out to 75 @ wunderground. I'll check it out myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No I use the wxbell snow maps which shows about 4'' for YYZ which is better than the 2'' it showed at 12z. Depending what ratio you want to use, i would use 12:1, then yes, about 3-4, (maybe 5-6" if LES does become a factor) to be exact. But for now a reasonable 2-3" is good based on the average of all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gotchya. Nice to know. Do you get any wind plots? If so, is the flow still favourable for LES? EDIT: never mind. Out to 75 @ wunderground. I'll check it out myself. Ya wind does look favourable for LES. In fact there's a nice surface relection aiming right at YYZ on the EURO. Do the soundings support LES Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Holy gradient on the Euro. I'd be really interested in raw number for GYY, VPZ, and RZL (or LAF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Depending what ratio you want to use, i would use 12:1, then yes, about 3-4, (maybe 5-6" if LES does become a factor) to be exact. But for now a reasonable 2-3" is good based on the average of all models. 2m wind plots showing some nice sfc convergence between ENE and ESE winds. Probably some enhanced uplift wherever that zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ya wind does look favourable for LES. In fact there's a nice surface relection aiming right at YYZ on the EURO. Do the soundings support LES Mike? Unfortunately BUFKIT is on my desktop computer back in Toronto. It's reasonably easy to download though. I'll do that tomorrow. It's a good question because easterly flow usually comes with inversion problems (among other things). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 2m wind plots showing some nice sfc convergence between ENE and ESE winds. Probably some enhanced uplift wherever that zone sets up. Yes, looks like a nice set-up for LES in the GTA. A nice wind component similar to what we had during the February storm. LES should be discussed within a 12 hour window from the event but for now, it does seem encouraging. Temperatures are very cold, so ratios are going to be high. Disregarding LES, a general 3-4" and if it were to become a factor, then 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes, looks like a nice set-up for LES in the GTA. A nice wind component similar to what we had during the February storm. LES should be discussed within a 12 hour window from the event but for now, it does seem encouraging. Temperatures are very cold, so ratios are going to be high. Disregarding LES, a general 3-4" and if it were to become a factor, then 5-6". That was more of a SE flow that tended to favour areas N and E of Toronto (eg, my house in central Etobicoke didn't get a single flake of LES on Feb 7-8, 2013). Unless the major players change much, this is going to be a Toronto-Hamilton corridor setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The high res guidance has done well so far this winter...If I had listened to it, I'd be 2 for 2. Early NMM run is even north of the NAM...we'll see if it's typical beyond it's range hi-res amped shenanigans or legit. Just when it looked like we were getting some north momentum the GFS/GEM/Euro come out with turds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I noticed the southward trends too. The WRF above looks to be producing a healthy snow for us both. Even the NAM yesterday picked up on how Windsor was to be a DAB on its simulated radar. Perhaps this is a trend to watch for the next potential biggen near Christmas. How's that song go ?? " Oh the weather outside is fright full.... ..... Let it snow, let it snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That was more of a SE flow that tended to favour areas N and E of Toronto (eg, my house in central Etobicoke didn't get a single flake of LES on Feb 7-8, 2013). Unless the major players change much, this is going to be a Toronto-Hamilton corridor setup. The euro text verbatim has .31" of liquid for YYZ but ratios would likely be pretty good with H85 temps in the -15 to -10c range. In terms of LES prospects, i would agree that it favours central/western parts of the GTA but it may just end up enhancing totals slightly as opposed to really making a huge difference as the inversion is below 850mb. Delta-T's should be in the 11-16c range however and winds are aligned nicely for convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 DTW seems to be in the thick of the good darker blue for almost 22 hours on this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Southern energy with a decent sample.... northern energy...still working it's way onshore... ***these both are after 13Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 not seeing much difference with with the southern piece at 500 on the 12z NAM (compared to 0z/6z) northern kicker looks a hair stronger but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z qpf for DTW for the Saturday snowstorm: NAM: 0.55"GFS: 0.31"EURO: 0.36"GEM: approx 0.60" We are now getting into close range- 2 days away. While not the best of runs it was a few day ago, its much better than it looked a few days before that. Even DTX says they expect a solid advisory snow Saturday and have upped pops to 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 WSW hoisted north of St. Louis metro area already....I believe the first watches or advisories for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 faster and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 faster and south progressive is the word so far this winter. bummer with all this cold air in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Milwaukee's take on the LES/LEhS. Calling for 4-6". MODELS HAVE STAYED MAINLY SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMMOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THESYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THE LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH...STILLEXPECTING SOME SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BELATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS EAST WINDS WILL BRING LAKEEFFECT SNOW TO THE AREA. THOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT MILDER...AVERAGEMODEL 850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -11 TO -14C RANGE DURING THISPERIOD. WATER TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT STILLSEEING UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE OPEN WATERS. THIS GIVESPRETTY GOOD SFC TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...AROUND 15 TO18C IF THE COOLER MODELS VERIFY. PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVELOMEGA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SO BUMPED UP SNOWFALLAMOUNTS...REACHING THE 4-6 INCH RANGE IN THE EAST FOR THE DURATIONOF THE EVENT. SHOULD BE LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THELAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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