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Chicago Storm

December 13-14th Winter Storm

1,000 posts in this topic

How is it QPF wise for YYZ?

Using 12:1 ratios about 3-5". Its a bit better than the 0z EURO. Qpf wise its similar to the GGEM.

Whats your take on this? There are some things on the model runs that dont match up or make sense. We've seen a lot of issues of late, in terms of accuracy on the models..

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Using 12:1 ratios about 3-5". Its a bit better than the 0z EURO. Qpf wise its similar to the GGEM.

Whats your take on this? There are some things on the model runs that dont match up or make sense. We've seen a lot of issues of late, in terms of accuracy on the models..

 

What doesn't make sense (besides that we're getting screwed yet again)?

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Through 72 hours the 12z UKIE looked pretty juicy. Anybody know what happens there after? On the meteocentre website, the precip field only goes up to 72 hours..

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Through 72 hours the 12z UKIE looked pretty juicy. Anybody know what happens there after? On the meteocentre website, the precip field only goes up to 72 hours..

 

link please.

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That's my call too. Maybe a tad more if there's lake enhancement involved.

 

I'm going 2-4" in Toronto, with that falling over an extended period of time.

 

 

I'm feeling a bit more optimistic with this one. First call, 2.5-5".

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What doesn't make sense (besides that we're getting screwed yet again)?

 

I believe Gilbert posted about discrepancies in the models across the Pacific just a few hours out, earlier on. 

 

The major problem we have here is the progressiveness of the pattern. Such a pattern may yield a storm outta the Gulf but other factors you would typically see in such formations are hard to come by. Sure we have cold air but its useless if a decent storm aint in the picture. 

 

However, as you already know we've seen alot of problems with timing, moisture, etc on the models even 24 hours out. That storm at the end of November wasn't even shown as being an Apps runner until the 3-5 day window.  We'll have to see what happens through the next 1-2 days and see if any changes do occur when the storm becomes sampled. 

 

Edit: And yeah i agree with your post about the Ukie....do we ever not get screwed? -_- 

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There's room for change once the key features get into the RAOB network but we're gonna need something profound to turn this into something huge.  Maybe it can turn into like a 6-9" deal if things trend better but I'm not sure the ceiling is higher than that.   

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I'm feeling a bit more optimistic with this one. First call, 2.5-5".

 

For now, I like 1.5-2.5". Thats my call. 

 

Its painful knowing that 2-3 days ago, it showed 10-12"  :axe:

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I believe Gilbert posted about discrepancies in the models across the Pacific just a few hours out, earlier on. 

 

The major problem we have here is the progressiveness of the pattern. Such a pattern may yield a storm outta the Gulf but other factors you would typically see in such formations are hard to come by. Sure we have cold air but its useless if a decent storm aint in the picture. 

 

However, as you already know we've seen alot of problems with timing, moisture, etc on the models even 24 hours out. That storm at the end of November wasn't even shown as being an Apps runner until the 3-5 day window.  We'll have to see what happens through the next 1-2 days and see if any changes do occur when the storm becomes sampled. 

 

Edit: And yeah i agree with your post about the Ukie....do we ever not get screwed? -_- 

 

I think the spatial location of the two shortwaves is going to be determinative. With the confluent flow downstream and that kicker s/w coming into AK/Northern BC around 84 hours, it's going to be almost impossible to get the southern stream wave to slow down so that the northern wave can catch up and interact with it.

 

Not too often are we going to get a good snowstorm with a huge area of depressed heights over Labrador/Davis Strait. That's 2009-10 in a nutshell.

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Good news for YYZ is that the EURO still turns the winds to 90 degrees. You can actually see the lake band delineated in the QPF plots. In fact, most of the synoptic misses us to the south. Not going to throw out any numbers if everything is riding on LES. It's way too early anyways, and especially so with LES.

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I think the spatial location of the two shortwaves is going to be determinative. With the confluent flow downstream and that kicker s/w coming into AK/Northern BC around 84 hours, it's going to be almost impossible to get the southern stream wave to slow down so that the northern wave can catch up and interact with it.

 

Not too often are we going to get a good snowstorm with a huge area of depressed heights over Labrador/Davis Strait. That's 2009-10 in a nutshell.

 

+1 

 

The progressiveness in the overall pattern is pushing the southern stream far faster than you would typically see in a "normal" pattern. I mean how many times have we seen such a similar situation only to materialize into nothing in the end, in recent years?  <_<  Only way we can see a more phased solution is if the southern stream slows down or the northern stream speeds up. 

 

Still have a few days for  things to turn around but like Hoosier said, it would have to be huge.  Dont remind me about 09-10... 

 

Well time to hit the books for another exam tomorrow so i can watch the leafs game later on.. :lmao:

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For now, I like 1.5-2.5". Thats my call. 

 

Its painful knowing that 2-3 days ago, it showed 10-12"  :axe:

I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one.

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good call for them

 

 

Ill take it! Better thn nothing! Another thing we should keep an eye on is ratios. Temps look to be in the low 20s during most of the storm, so that could help..

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Ill take it! Better thn nothing! Another thing we should keep an eye on is ratios. Temps look to be in the low 20s during most of the storm, so that could help..

Virga at the onset usually an issue.

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I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one.

 

 

Still kicking myself for being out of town for that one. Hoping I get a second chance eventually.

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Virga at the onset usually an issue.

Yeah that can be an issue...let's hope we saturate quickly! I think we got a decent snow storm on the way. We still got three days to go and lots can change in that timeframe.

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When my friends and family ask me how much snow are going to get with a potential bigger snowfall I'm just going to say...2-4" can't lose safe play.

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