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December 13-14th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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What doesn't make sense (besides that we're getting screwed yet again)?

 

I believe Gilbert posted about discrepancies in the models across the Pacific just a few hours out, earlier on. 

 

The major problem we have here is the progressiveness of the pattern. Such a pattern may yield a storm outta the Gulf but other factors you would typically see in such formations are hard to come by. Sure we have cold air but its useless if a decent storm aint in the picture. 

 

However, as you already know we've seen alot of problems with timing, moisture, etc on the models even 24 hours out. That storm at the end of November wasn't even shown as being an Apps runner until the 3-5 day window.  We'll have to see what happens through the next 1-2 days and see if any changes do occur when the storm becomes sampled. 

 

Edit: And yeah i agree with your post about the Ukie....do we ever not get screwed? -_- 

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I believe Gilbert posted about discrepancies in the models across the Pacific just a few hours out, earlier on. 

 

The major problem we have here is the progressiveness of the pattern. Such a pattern may yield a storm outta the Gulf but other factors you would typically see in such formations are hard to come by. Sure we have cold air but its useless if a decent storm aint in the picture. 

 

However, as you already know we've seen alot of problems with timing, moisture, etc on the models even 24 hours out. That storm at the end of November wasn't even shown as being an Apps runner until the 3-5 day window.  We'll have to see what happens through the next 1-2 days and see if any changes do occur when the storm becomes sampled. 

 

Edit: And yeah i agree with your post about the Ukie....do we ever not get screwed? -_- 

 

I think the spatial location of the two shortwaves is going to be determinative. With the confluent flow downstream and that kicker s/w coming into AK/Northern BC around 84 hours, it's going to be almost impossible to get the southern stream wave to slow down so that the northern wave can catch up and interact with it.

 

Not too often are we going to get a good snowstorm with a huge area of depressed heights over Labrador/Davis Strait. That's 2009-10 in a nutshell.

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I think the spatial location of the two shortwaves is going to be determinative. With the confluent flow downstream and that kicker s/w coming into AK/Northern BC around 84 hours, it's going to be almost impossible to get the southern stream wave to slow down so that the northern wave can catch up and interact with it.

 

Not too often are we going to get a good snowstorm with a huge area of depressed heights over Labrador/Davis Strait. That's 2009-10 in a nutshell.

 

+1 

 

The progressiveness in the overall pattern is pushing the southern stream far faster than you would typically see in a "normal" pattern. I mean how many times have we seen such a similar situation only to materialize into nothing in the end, in recent years?  <_<  Only way we can see a more phased solution is if the southern stream slows down or the northern stream speeds up. 

 

Still have a few days for  things to turn around but like Hoosier said, it would have to be huge.  Dont remind me about 09-10... 

 

Well time to hit the books for another exam tomorrow so i can watch the leafs game later on.. :lmao:

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For now, I like 1.5-2.5". Thats my call. 

 

Its painful knowing that 2-3 days ago, it showed 10-12"  :axe:

I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one.

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I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one.

 

 

Still kicking myself for being out of town for that one. Hoping I get a second chance eventually.

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When my friends and family ask me how much snow are going to get with a potential bigger snowfall I'm just going to say...2-4" can't lose safe play.

LMAO... 

Look at the low placement on the nam and prcp? It seems like its off..no prcp to the N/W, all to the east of the main low. Also no secondary until hr84. 

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