jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z NAM come in much more robust and further northwest with the precip shield for the december 10-11th 2013 event. Frontal wave actually allowed to strengthen underneath a strengthening region of PVA. Lift should be insane for a time if the NAM is correct. Enjoy, this is a better shot at something than the 9th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS finally showed something at 18z. If we see some other guidance trend at 0z...I'll be on board! NAM does seem to sniff stuff out a couple times a season...hopefully this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Dammit James! Now I'm all excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gonna really need to see the non-NCEP models come around in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gonna really need to see the non-NCEP models come around in the next few hours. Ukie, GGEM, Euro - something! Even the Euro Ensembles have zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It should also be noted that the euro started to show some light snow (very light) but trend is in fvor of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gonna really need to see the non-NCEP models come around in the next few hours. I agree to see the Canadian jump on board will be big in to backing up the NAM and GFS, but the EURO isn't king like it was a few years ago, so it's not the one model to keep it from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I agree to see the Canadian jump on board will be big in to backing up the NAM and GFS, but the EURO isn't king like it was a few years ago, so it's not the one model to keep it from happening. I'd rather the euro jump on board than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'd rather the euro jump on board than the GGEM. I think it was encouraging to see the GFS come on board at 18z. Hopefully a sign of things to come at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'd rather the euro jump on board than the GGEM. I'd rather the GGEM jump overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think it was encouraging to see the GFS come on board at 18z. Hopefully a sign of things to come at 0z. I'd rather the GGEM jump overboard. I hope so too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 not a fan when the flow up and down the column is W or WSW. my expectation right now is flurries/light snow skimming the S coast/Cape/Islands. with heavier stuff staying just SE of ACK. but, would love to see the NAM score a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Pretty unusual to see the NCEP models vs intl models be so different this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Pretty unusual to see the NCEP models vs intl models be so different this close. not a fan when the flow up and down the column is W or WSW. my expectation right now is flurries/light snow skimming the S coast/Cape/Islands. with heavier stuff staying just SE of ACK. but, would love to see the NAM score a win. Maybe we can manage tonight's snow to be north of Rt 2 and Tuesday's snow to be south and east of I-84. Perfect 7/10 split for Mount Tolland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe we can manage tonight's snow to be north of Rt 2 and Tuesday's snow to be south and east of I-84. Perfect 7/10 split for Mount Tolland!You ought to get warnedJk. This is an interesting development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I would like to see the EURO jump onboard as well as the 12z run made a good jump closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Rgem brings measurable up into Semass, decent shift nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Good heavens thats a cold snow on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Meh, not buying much past the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gfs more onboard now. Haven't followed closely but I think the euro caves tonight. It's not having a great time in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Meh, not buying much past the canal. mainly cause of lack of international support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought the GFS kind of exited stage right quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If euro caves, I think were in business. Does that mean 1-2 or 3-6...... Maybe it isn't done trending north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS supports 1-3" west of the canal and 2-4 on the Cape. Maybe 4" on Nantucket, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 mainly cause of lack of international support? I'd like to see more support for snow to BOS. I could see a little -SN on the Cape, but I'm having doubts about bringing this to BOS. It's another flat wave well south and more anafrontal mid level frontogenesis band well north. That is not an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I mean if we strikeout tonight, third times a charm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just to build up weenie expectations...NAM QPF totals for the Tuesday event in CT: BDL: 0.285" BDR: 0.615" GON: 0.650" HVN: 0.650" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 QPF in the thousandths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just to build up weenie expectations...NAM QPF totals for the Tuesday event in CT: BDL: 0.285" BDR: 0.615" GON: 0.650" HVN: 0.650" obv overdone...but fluff factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought the GFS kind of exited stage right quicker. May well be the typical ncep over correction west....we will see. The always surpressed (in these situations) ggem isn't all that different than the Gfs now. Minimal event for most, some potential over the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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