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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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So, does that basically mean a bust south of 84 and 95 corridor... forget it? :(

I'm not calling anything a bust at this point because this is still about a week out, but lots of times people get really excited about events like these and there are times where people who live along the coast get screwed with snowfall amounts due to crap ratios and changeovers to rain as a result of a coastal front setting up.

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I'm not calling anything a bust at this point because this is still about a week out, but lots of times people get really excited about events like these and there are times where people who live along the coast get screwed with snowfall amounts due to crap ratios and changeovers to rain as a result of a coastal front setting up.

It usually makes it a couple of miles to my w in E Billerica, or a bit s of me on rt 128.....2 main placements, anyway...

Just west of it cranks.

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If "disappointment" constitutes receiving a 6" front end thump, as opposed to 10".....about as bad as it will get that that high position.

 

I feel the opposite. I mean I suppose this still can cut west, but that's a pants tent high to our north. I'm still thinking SWFE type setup. Snow to brief rain possibly on the coast, but not after a thump. Snow to IP or dryslot inland. Just a first guess...but that high is a nice reason to feel rather bullish. JMHO.

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I'm not calling anything a bust at this point because this is still about a week out, but lots of times people get really excited about events like these and there are times where people who live along the coast get screwed with snowfall amounts due to crap ratios and changeovers to rain as a result of a coastal front setting up.

Not if that 1035 high sits over southern Quebec...if I remove emotions from it (a dendrite said I want to steer it NW, haha), this looks darn good right now for you guys in terms of synoptic set up.

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I feel the opposite. I mean I suppose this still can cut west, but that's a pants tent high to our north. I'm still thinking SWFE type setup. Snow to brief rain possibly on the coast, but not after a thump. Snow to IP or dryslot inland. Just a first guess...but that high is a nice reason to feel rather bullish. JMHO.

Right....not sure where he was coming from with that.

Even assuming the mid levels fly west, that cold needs to be bodily removed, hence the 6" thump.

Don't see how we escape that this time around....the ageostrophic push is going to hold that cf pretty close to the coast imo.

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I feel the opposite. I mean I suppose this still can cut west, but that's a pants tent high to our north. I'm still thinking SWFE type setup. Snow to brief rain possibly on the coast, but not after a thump. Snow to IP or dryslot inland. Just a first guess...but that high is a nice reason to feel rather bullish. JMHO.

Props to you calling the wet pattern back when it was bone dry.

Also, nice too see mets pretty bullish on this for everybody

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Really? I wasn't thinking of it moving in that far west.  I was thinking more of places east of the 95 corridor.

Right, as I just intimated in my previous post, it probably hugs the coast in this event...but I was speaking from a climo perspective.

 

I agree that spots like Logan may still struggle with 45*+ ssts...

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Not if that 1035 high sits over southern Quebec...if I remove emotions from it (a dendrite said I want to steer it NW, haha), this looks darn good right now for you guys in terms of synoptic set up.

Where I am located I'm okay, but low level temps do appear to be a concern for areas east of me imo, unless it absolutely rips and you get some evaporational cooling but ratios will still be crap.

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WAA snows in the overrunning shield can often arrive earlier than what models project as well.

 

Yeah--these situations are great, giving a little bonus on the accumulation.  Also, a situation in which my wife make sarcastic comments like "wow, look how hard it's snowing" or "so where is this big storm you promised was coming??"

 

That is not true.  I care about your backyard.

 

 

 

since it is less than 10 miles from mine....

 

:hug:   

 

LOL--when I saw that post I was going to make a similar comment about being very concerned about Chris' backyard.  Also concerned about some folks in CT.  If they can taint, I can clean up. 

 

I'm full of concern for people's back yards.

 

22.4/14

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Not if that 1035 high sits over southern Quebec...if I remove emotions from it (a dendrite said I want to steer it NW, haha), this looks darn good right now for you guys in terms of synoptic set up.

Where I am located I'm okay, but low level temps do appear to be a concern for areas east of me imo, unless it absolutely rips and you get some evaporational cooling but ratios will still be crap.

Respectfully I disagree. Climo argues 4-8+ before taint most places off the cape.

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