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12/8 - 12/9 2nd wave OBS


UlsterCountySnowZ

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Intellicast future radar show NYC turning to rain by 1am. How accurate is this?

 

262sj09.jpg

 

 

Hard to say right now, the NE wedge is holding very tough, all models had winds 080-100 by now and yet LGA/JFK are still 020-040...FOK only place showing any sign of going east, I definitely am starting to have concerns that any wave of precip  that comes through after 02-03Z could be FZRA through a good part of the night even at places like LGA/JFK but we'll have to keep monitoring the wind direction

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Hard to say right now, the NE wedge is holding very tough, all models had winds 080-100 by now and yet LGA/JFK are still 020-040...FOK only place showing any sign of going east, I definitely am starting to have concerns that any wave of precip that comes through after 02-03Z could be FZRA through a good part of the night even at places like LGA/JFK but we'll have to keep monitoring the wind direction

Yep... Winds have not shifted to the east and temps have not gone above freezing along the coast as modeled around this times.

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Hard to say right now, the NE wedge is holding very tough, all models had winds 080-100 by now and yet LGA/JFK are still 020-040...FOK only place showing any sign of going east, I definitely am starting to have concerns that any wave of precip that comes through after 02-03Z could be FZRA through a good part of the night even at places like LGA/JFK but we'll have to keep monitoring the wind direction

I think most of NNJ is in the upper 20's. Most of the modeling had us at or near freezing by this point.
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U think that amount of precip is gonna fill in from a weak coastal with the radar the way it looks now?

 

think the best thing to do here is to just wait and see whats going to happen. take the current conditions compared to what was forecasted at this time and it doesn't take much to realize that cold air is holding stronger than expected. Winds are still not turning easterly or any wind that would cause us to warm quick enough at all levels to become rain quicker than expected. im enjoying my 1/2-3/4" as it was very nice to see the ground whitened the first time this winter season

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About 1/2 a centimeter of snow in Port Jeff, which is equivalent to 2/10 ths of an inch, I think.  Some light snow continues to fall.  Very light.

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Central Park with 0.05 LE so far, so that should have broken the seal as far as first measurable snow of the year...but you never know.

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it would have to fly to get here by midnight-I'd say more like 3am and we're likely torched aloft by then?

 

Mesoscale analysis puts the current 850 0C line through ACY. We're already seeing strong WAA at those levels. For the coast if the winds don't change east by then, then we might see a small period of freezing rain before winds change and temps warm at the surface.

 

(Time sensitive):

tadv.gif?1386551178934

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Upstream soundings show dry air aloft which means we're going directly to freezing drizzle especially near the coast. We'll see if things can improve some for a period of snow or sleet across the interior. But with no ice crystals I think freezing drizzle is likely -- and bad for travel if you're not near the warmer coastal areas. We'll see.

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I thought the radar was supposed to fill in & the rap had show by 10ish? We shall see

I'm not trying to be a downer or make anyone mad.. But my own personal opinion is that coastal is too Far East and the energy transfer is happening to far off the coast to push any moisture back in.. Anything we see will be from the tail end currently in Tenn, and that won't happen till atleast 3-4 am... Again just my guess

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I'm not trying to be a downer or make anyone mad.. But my own personal opinion is that coastal is too Far East and the energy transfer is happening to far off the coast to push any moisture back in.. Anything we see will be from the tail end currently in Tenn, and that won't happen till atleast 3-4 am... Again just my guess

sounds reasonable since this system hasn't gone as planned so far - makes you wonder what surprises we will encounter on Tuesday..

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Mesoscale analysis puts the current 850 0C line through ACY. We're already seeing strong WAA at those levels. For the coast if the winds don't change east by then, then we might see a small period of freezing rain before winds change and temps warm at the surface.

 

(Time sensitive):

tadv.gif?1386551178934

Here`s the issue , temps are in the mid to upper 20`s , with all that snow cover the models didn't assume was in place . a lot of people who`s 850`s go to plus 2 ,

the precip turns out to be frezzing rain , not just rain . Yesterday , the models assumed that the surfaces were 5 degrees warmer than they are now .

I Thnk  theres a real danger of a lot more ice than people think just away from the coast . but no that far either .

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Here`s the issue , temps are in the mid to upper 20`s , with all that snow cover the models didn't assume was in place . a lot of people who`s 850`s go to plus 2 ,

the precip turns out to be frezzing rain , not just rain . Yesterday , the models assumed that the surfaces were 5 degrees warmer than they are now .

I Thnk  theres a real danger of a lot more ice than people think just away from the coast . but no that far either .

 

I agree 100%. There's a much higher chance of freezing rain than there was before. The models have underestimated the low level cold and there's now snow cover on top of that.

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Here`s the issue , temps are in the mid to upper 20`s , with all that snow cover the models didn't assume was in place . a lot of people who`s 850`s go to plus 2 ,

the precip turns out to be frezzing rain , not just rain . Yesterday , the models assumed that the surfaces were 5 degrees warmer than they are now .

I Thnk theres a real danger of a lot more ice than people think just away from the coast . but no that far either .

At what point tho?? Where is that moisture coming from?I just don't see a 1020 coastal taking over and backfilling what looks like a terrible radar currently

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At what point tho?? Where is that moisture coming from?I just don't see a 1020 coastal taking over and backfilling what looks like a terrible radar currently

 

this has happened LOTS of times with our recent coastal transfer events. the transfer causes the holes in the radar and widespread panic and weenie-suicides often occur. there will be a second wave from the developing low, just sit back and watch it unfold :pimp:

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