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Central PA - December 2013


PennMan

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Yeah.  They would murder me for sure.  I feel bad, but I used to live in the city of Baltimore so I understand their pain.  Sad part is the conditions are the same 5 miles down the road from here which is officially in the mid atlantic forum proper!  North Harford, Baltimore, and Caroll look about the same.   The cities got screwed and the north was screwed.  We need a region wide KU soon.  

Great, great shots. Thanks for posting them. Hope you and the kiddo enjoy the playday!

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Thanks guys!   PSU Hoffman before his move from Manchester, MD made it clear that if there was a bigger snow that hit him in Manchester but missed the cities he would only post the pictures here not in the MA forum.  People are on edge after the last couple of winters especially around DC proper. For me I really ignore some of the more snarky people down there because there are some great posts and insight from the pros and other good hobbyists.  From my perspective I work at the harbor in Baltimore so the MA forum is the proper place to be.  Our location here is off of exit 4 on I-83 just 3 miles from the "Magic/ Arbitrary line".  I am east just 3 miles above the intersection of York, Harford, and Baltimore County.  In laws have a farm in Baltimore County MD 8 miles to my southwest.  We watch Baltimore and Cent PA news.  Anyone who lives or works in a particular sub forum belongs there period.   Now with that said people up here are much more reasonable, open to ideas, and appear to be happier in life.  Maybe the stress of DC/Balt hustle gets people more edgy and defensive, but that is not NeffsvilleWx's problem or mine.  We have work interests there.  

 

The reality of these artificial forum created boundaries does not coincide with the commuting and working patterns of most people in Baltimore and Washington.  Almost all of southern York, Adams, and Lancaster is a rural suburb of Baltimore/DC job market.  Whereas the distant mountains of WV or coastal tide waters of central VA are not.  This is a weather and information share board and I like to hear the observations of people 100 miles to my south and north because odds are their weather or some form of it is heading my way be it a cold front or moisture.

 

Central Pa and the MA Forum are both home to me weather wise, and many others similarly situated.  It is our duty to resist the tyranny of random ......holes where ever they might be found!  If you have something to share or add that has bearing on the weather in a certain region then most "reasonable" people want to know, the opinion of the rest is immaterial.  :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana::pepsi:        

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read on other forums new Euro is looking good for mostly frozen this weekend. Sounds like it could be a pretty significant storm.

 

Looks to transfer the energy to the developing coastal  low faster than 12z GFS... text output just now reaching that period so I will edit in a few minutes...

 

12z GFS has 850mb temps drop from about 50F to 10F over a 12 hour period during Christmas Eve to Christmas morning for MDT! lol

 

MDT

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -9.3    -9.2    1033      84      96    0.01     555     530   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -5.7    -8.5    1030      75      97    0.04     554     531   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -6.2    -5.5    1024      89      99    0.16     553     534   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -3.0    -0.7    1012      92      94    0.25     549     539   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -2.2    -0.5    1006      93      80    0.44     543     538   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   1.3    -3.9    1006      84      64    0.04     542     537   

LNS

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -9.3    -9.1    1033      81      95    0.01     555     530   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -5.7    -8.3    1030      75      97    0.04     554     531   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -6.1    -5.2    1024      88     100    0.14     553     535   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -1.7    -0.5    1012      93      95    0.26     550     541   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -1.1    -0.4    1005      94      75    0.52     543     539   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   0.8    -3.5    1006      85      65    0.06     542     537   

UNV

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -10.9   -10.0    1033      86      90    0.02     553     529   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -8.0    -9.2    1029      79      98    0.05     552     530   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -8.0    -6.7    1023      89      98    0.17     550     533   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -6.5    -2.9    1014      91     100    0.21     546     535   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -5.1    -2.7    1008      93      96    0.20     542     536   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   0.8    -6.6    1006      80      44    0.02     539     534   

MON 00Z 16-DEC  -2.0    -9.6    1009      80      89    0.01     537     530   

AOO

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -9.0    -8.5    1031      89      98    0.02     555     531   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -7.3    -8.1    1028      83      98    0.05     553     532   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -7.2    -6.0    1022      92      99    0.22     551     534   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -5.8    -2.6    1013      93      97    0.24     546     536   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -4.3    -2.8    1008      93      73    0.20     543     537   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   0.8    -6.9    1008      78      32    0.01     541     535   

MON 00Z 16-DEC  -2.1    -9.6    1010      81      75    0.01     540     532   

AVP

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -14.7   -12.2    1034      81      98    0.00     552     526   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -8.8   -10.8    1032      64      97    0.03     552     528   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC -10.9    -7.3    1027      82     100    0.08     550     530   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -9.4    -4.2    1017      86      97    0.20     547     535   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -5.7     0.2    1007      90      98    0.30     542     536   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC  -2.2    -3.9    1005      89      94    0.19     539     535   

IPT

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -12.1   -11.8    1034      83      91    0.01     552     527   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -7.8   -10.4    1030      73      96    0.05     552     529   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -8.5    -8.0    1025      88      97    0.13     550     531   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -6.5    -3.6    1015      90      98    0.21     546     535   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -4.9    -1.6    1007      92      97    0.16     542     536   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC  -0.3    -4.8    1006      84      63    0.06     538     534

THV

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -8.4    -8.6    1032      84      99    0.01     556     531   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -5.2    -8.1    1029      77      97    0.04     554     532   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -5.2    -4.9    1023      90     100    0.17     553     535   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -2.0     0.1    1011      93      96    0.28     549     540   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -1.8    -0.6    1006      93      70    0.44     543     538   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   2.1    -3.9    1007      81      56    0.02     543     537   

  

order is 2m temp / 850mb temp / surface pressure / surface relative humidity / 700mb relative humidity / 6 HR QPF / 500m height (dm) / 1000-500mb thickness

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Looks to transfer the energy to the developing coastal  low faster than 12z GFS... text output just now reaching that period so I will edit in a few minutes...

 

12z GFS has 850mb temps drop from about 50F to 10F over a 12 hour period during Christmas Eve to Christmas morning for MDT! lol

NYC forum on the Euro play by play sounds really good for us. GFS was good with a front end thump sounds like models are getting colder with each run I just hope it doesn't end up being too far east for us.

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Thanks guys!   PSU Hoffman before his move from Manchester, MD made it clear that if there was a bigger snow that hit him in Manchester but missed the cities he would only post the pictures here not in the MA forum.  People are on edge after the last couple of winters especially around DC proper. For me I really ignore some of the more snarky people down there because there are some great posts and insight from the pros and other good hobbyists.  From my perspective I work at the harbor in Baltimore so the MA forum is the proper place to be.  Our location here is off of exit 4 on I-83 just 3 miles from the "Magic/ Arbitrary line".  I am east just 3 miles above the intersection of York, Harford, and Baltimore County.  In laws have a farm in Baltimore County MD 8 miles to my southwest.  We watch Baltimore and Cent PA news.  Anyone who lives or works in a particular sub forum belongs there period.   Now with that said people up here are much more reasonable, open to ideas, and appear to be happier in life.  Maybe the stress of DC/Balt hustle gets people more edgy and defensive, but that is not NeffsvilleWx's problem or mine.  We have work interests there.  

 

The reality of these artificial forum created boundaries does not coincide with the commuting and working patterns of most people in Baltimore and Washington.  Almost all of southern York, Adams, and Lancaster is a rural suburb of Baltimore/DC job market.  Whereas the distant mountains of WV or coastal tide waters of central VA are not.  This is a weather and information share board and I like to hear the observations of people 100 miles to my south and north because odds are their weather or some form of it is heading my way be it a cold front or moisture.

 

Central Pa and the MA Forum are both home to me weather wise, and many others similarly situated.  It is our duty to resist the tyranny of random ......holes where ever they might be found!  If you have something to share or add that has bearing on the weather in a certain region then most "reasonable" people want to know, the opinion of the rest is immaterial.  :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana::pepsi:        

 

 

pepsi. gross.

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NYC forum on the Euro play by play sounds really good for us. GFS was good with a front end thump sounds like models are getting colder with each run I just hope it doesn't end up being too far east for us.

a 1032+ mb high to the north and east similar to these runs today would keep it from going too far east

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Looks to transfer the energy to the developing coastal  low faster than 12z GFS... text output just now reaching that period so I will edit in a few minutes...

 

12z GFS has 850mb temps drop from about 50F to 10F over a 12 hour period during Christmas Eve to Christmas morning for MDT! lol

 

MDT

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -9.3    -9.2    1033      84      96    0.01     555     530   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -5.7    -8.5    1030      75      97    0.04     554     531   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -6.2    -5.5    1024      89      99    0.16     553     534   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -3.0    -0.7    1012      92      94    0.25     549     539   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -2.2    -0.5    1006      93      80    0.44     543     538   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   1.3    -3.9    1006      84      64    0.04     542     537   

LNS

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -9.3    -9.1    1033      81      95    0.01     555     530   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -5.7    -8.3    1030      75      97    0.04     554     531   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -6.1    -5.2    1024      88     100    0.14     553     535   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -1.7    -0.5    1012      93      95    0.26     550     541   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -1.1    -0.4    1005      94      75    0.52     543     539   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   0.8    -3.5    1006      85      65    0.06     542     537   

UNV

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -10.9   -10.0    1033      86      90    0.02     553     529   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -8.0    -9.2    1029      79      98    0.05     552     530   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -8.0    -6.7    1023      89      98    0.17     550     533   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -6.5    -2.9    1014      91     100    0.21     546     535   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -5.1    -2.7    1008      93      96    0.20     542     536   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   0.8    -6.6    1006      80      44    0.02     539     534   

MON 00Z 16-DEC  -2.0    -9.6    1009      80      89    0.01     537     530   

AOO

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -9.0    -8.5    1031      89      98    0.02     555     531   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -7.3    -8.1    1028      83      98    0.05     553     532   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -7.2    -6.0    1022      92      99    0.22     551     534   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -5.8    -2.6    1013      93      97    0.24     546     536   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -4.3    -2.8    1008      93      73    0.20     543     537   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   0.8    -6.9    1008      78      32    0.01     541     535   

MON 00Z 16-DEC  -2.1    -9.6    1010      81      75    0.01     540     532   

AVP

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -14.7   -12.2    1034      81      98    0.00     552     526   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -8.8   -10.8    1032      64      97    0.03     552     528   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC -10.9    -7.3    1027      82     100    0.08     550     530   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -9.4    -4.2    1017      86      97    0.20     547     535   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -5.7     0.2    1007      90      98    0.30     542     536   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC  -2.2    -3.9    1005      89      94    0.19     539     535   

IPT

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -12.1   -11.8    1034      83      91    0.01     552     527   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -7.8   -10.4    1030      73      96    0.05     552     529   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -8.5    -8.0    1025      88      97    0.13     550     531   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -6.5    -3.6    1015      90      98    0.21     546     535   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -4.9    -1.6    1007      92      97    0.16     542     536   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC  -0.3    -4.8    1006      84      63    0.06     538     534

THV

SAT 12Z 14-DEC  -8.4    -8.6    1032      84      99    0.01     556     531   

SAT 18Z 14-DEC  -5.2    -8.1    1029      77      97    0.04     554     532   

SUN 00Z 15-DEC  -5.2    -4.9    1023      90     100    0.17     553     535   

SUN 06Z 15-DEC  -2.0     0.1    1011      93      96    0.28     549     540   

SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -1.8    -0.6    1006      93      70    0.44     543     538   

SUN 18Z 15-DEC   2.1    -3.9    1007      81      56    0.02     543     537   

  

order is 2m temp / 850mb temp / surface pressure /

Shades of Xmas 1983, although it wasn't quite that warm when it plunged. 

 

NYC forum on the Euro play by play sounds really good for us. GFS was good with a front end thump sounds like models are getting colder with each run I just hope it doesn't end up being too far east for us.

MDT:

 

SAT 06Z 14-DEC -9.2 -8.3 1029 86 85 0.00 555 532

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -9.3 -9.2 1033 84 96 0.01 555 530

SAT 18Z 14-DEC -5.7 -8.5 1030 75 97 0.04 554 531

SUN 00Z 15-DEC -6.2 -5.5 1024 89 99 0.16 553 534

SUN 06Z 15-DEC -3.0 -0.7 1012 92 94 0.25 549 539

SUN 12Z 15-DEC -2.2 -0.5 1006 93 80 0.44 543 538

SUN 18Z 15-DEC 1.3 -3.9 1006 84 64 0.04 542 537 

 

UNV:

 

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -10.9 -10.0 1033 86 90 0.02 553 529

SAT 18Z 14-DEC -8.0 -9.2 1029 79 98 0.05 552 530

SUN 00Z 15-DEC -8.0 -6.7 1023 89 98 0.17 550 533

SUN 06Z 15-DEC -6.5 -2.9 1014 91 100 0.21 546 535

SUN 12Z 15-DEC -5.1 -2.7 1008 93 96 0.20 542 536

SUN 18Z 15-DEC 0.8 -6.6 1006 80 44 0.02 539 534

MON 00Z 16-DEC -2.0 -9.6 1009 80 89 0.01 537 530

MON 06Z 16-DEC -11.0 -18.4 1016 74 10 0.01 532 520

 

IPT: 

 

SAT 06Z 14-DEC -12.9 -12.8 1031 86 83 0.00 551 528

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -12.1 -11.8 1034 83 91 0.01 552 527

SAT 18Z 14-DEC -7.8 -10.4 1030 73 96 0.05 552 529

SUN 00Z 15-DEC -8.5 -8.0 1025 88 97 0.13 550 531

SUN 06Z 15-DEC -6.5 -3.6 1015 90 98 0.21 546 535

SUN 12Z 15-DEC -4.9 -1.6 1007 92 97 0.16 542 536

SUN 18Z 15-DEC -0.3 -4.8 1006 84 63 0.06 538 534

 

Yeah, that looks nice. 

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I hear you guys. Sometimes I feel I have no affiliation. I live in Lancaster and work in Cecil County MD who is caught between Philly and BWI.

I tend to post in all three (CPA, MidAtl and Philly). I don't even pay much attention to NWS since we are on the fringe of their coverage. I rely more on Eric Horst's analysis and WGAL.

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