AllWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 After an underperforming first wave to this frontal complex, the next wave holds *some* promise...especially for those who have seen virtually nothing so far this year in terms of snowfall (Lower Susquehanna Valley). First of all, overrunning events are notorious for surprising us and being under-modeled...also many times the northward extent the initial precipitation shield is almost always farther north than guidance suggests. Secondly, the models are also not keen on modeling CAD events accurately. From the Alleghenies eastward to I-83...and possibly as far east as Lancaster/Reading...I would imagine the cold air holds on longer than expected. Could be some significant icing from I-81 westward toward I-99 after the initial shot of a coating-2" of snow. Also, there's the factor of any accumulating snows to start will help hold some cold air at the surface for a bit longer. I'll be curious to see if the higher-res models are picking up on some mesoscale dynamics with the jet stream that the globals are having a harder time seeing. Honestly, I'd be happy to see some...ANY accumulations down here in the LSV, because it has been lack-luster so far this season. I have a new puppy who I'd LOVE to introduce to snow...we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 After an underperforming first wave to this frontal complex, the next wave holds *some* promise...especially for those who have seen virtually nothing so far this year in terms of snowfall (Lower Susquehanna Valley). First of all, overrunning events are notorious for surprising us and being under-modeled...also many times the northward extent the initial precipitation shield is almost always farther north than guidance suggests. Secondly, the models are also not keen on modeling CAD events accurately. From the Alleghenies eastward to I-83...and possibly as far east as Lancaster/Reading...I would imagine the cold air holds on longer than expected. Could be some significant icing from I-81 westward toward I-99 after the initial shot of a coating-2" of snow. Also, there's the factor of any accumulating snows to start will help hold some cold air at the surface for a bit longer. I'll be curious to see if the higher-res models are picking up on some mesoscale dynamics with the jet stream that the globals are having a harder time seeing. Honestly, I'd be happy to see some...ANY accumulations down here in the LSV, because it has been lack-luster so far this season. I have a new puppy who I'd LOVE to introduce to snow...we'll see! i was hoping last nights storm would over perform, but it really fell apart in our area. I too hope the CAD helps to hold us into something frozen longer than modeled as that often is the case even here in Lanc. My worry is that the cold is not deep enough to do anything meaningful for us by way of snow, a flip to sleet is ok, but ZR sucks. Maybe we get our turn in the next 2 weeks as it sounds like Christmas has the chance at being warmish... Hope your right about tomorrow. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Oh great.. I can post again... lol Stay out of trouble! We can't have you getting timeouts in the busy time of the month. Snow didn't impress here....Grass is covered but roads are bare. Far less than what they was calling for. Blackrock We will look forward to having you join us here. Maybe you will bring us some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well we got our foot of snow yesterday only it was 1.20" of liquid. It looks like the LSV will get on the board tomorrow with some real snow and hopefully not too much ice! It is hard for me to get excited about front end snow that will be washed away by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Stay out of trouble! We can't have you getting timeouts in the busy time of the month. Snow didn't impress here....Grass is covered but roads are bare. Far less than what they was calling for. Blackrock We will look forward to having you join us here. Maybe you will bring us some snow. I'll try my best. lol. Final call coming out this afternoon. I expect watches or warnings from CTP at some point today. They have an ice map with warning criteria for 7 counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 After an underperforming first wave to this frontal complex... Great points to keep in mind as we get closer to the event. Hopefully we get enough precip in while it’s still cold enough aloft. I’ve seen enough precip eating dry air through the years to be cautious. Seems like it’s that kind of set-up. Enjoyed reading your analysis, thanks for sharing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I just got back from a party. WTF happened to all the snow we were supposed to get? We are saving it for a bigger return later this winter...:-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Just saw the 06Z NAM and am wondering why no one is talking about the six+ inch snowstorm it is now forecasting for Tuesday???? WOW -- It looks incredible for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Just saw the 06Z NAM and am wondering why no one is talking about the six+ inch snowstorm it is now forecasting for Tuesday???? WOW -- It looks incredible for all of us. I saw that, but one...it is the NAM, and two...it has no support from the Euro. I guess it's something to watch, though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Stay out of trouble! We can't have you getting timeouts in the busy time of the month. Snow didn't impress here....Grass is covered but roads are bare. Far less than what they was calling for. Blackrock We will look forward to having you join us here. Maybe you will bring us some snow. Thanks...my family lives in Danville, so we will be there for Christmas. We have family in DuBois, Lancaster, Indiana PA, and the Pittsburgh area...so we will be all over the state! Unfortunately, Michigan has been in a dry and cold pattern, but I have a couple inches of snow thanks to Lake Michigan! Big fluffy flakes coming down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If you're into following the run-to-runs of the different models, FWIW the 12z GFS took a step towards the NAM with the northward extent of precip (minus the 12z NAM). Also the second wave is more evident than before on Tuesday and brings a swath of 1-2" for those east and especially southeast of I-81. For those outside of the LSV, looks like an initial C-1" with the precip shield's arrival, then over to PL and quickly to ZR. Starting to become more concerned with icing around I-99 and as far east as a line from Franklin county up to around Selinsgrove. Altoona records nearly a half inch of freezing rain after the initial snow start. Johnstown goes to 0.1c right as the heavy precip arrives. Like I said earlier, if the CAD is stronger than modeled (a real possibility with how guidance interprets CAD), then there could be some serious icing issues Sunday night into Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If you're into following the run-to-runs of the different models, FWIW the 12z GFS took a step towards the NAM with the northward extent of precip (minus the 12z NAM). Also the second wave is more evident than before on Tuesday and brings a swath of 1-2" for those east and especially southeast of I-81. For those outside of the LSV, looks like an initial C-1" with the precip shield's arrival, then over to PL and quickly to ZR. Starting to become more concerned with icing around I-99 and as far east as a line from Franklin county up to around Selinsgrove. Altoona records nearly a half inch of freezing rain after the initial snow start. Johnstown goes to 0.1c right as the heavy precip arrives. Like I said earlier, if the CAD is stronger than modeled (a real possibility with how guidance interprets CAD), then there could be some serious icing issues Sunday night into Monday AM. Thanks for the analysis, always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If you're into following the run-to-runs of the different models, FWIW the 12z GFS took a step towards the NAM with the northward extent of precip (minus the 12z NAM). Also the second wave is more evident than before on Tuesday and brings a swath of 1-2" for those east and especially southeast of I-81. For those outside of the LSV, looks like an initial C-1" with the precip shield's arrival, then over to PL and quickly to ZR. Starting to become more concerned with icing around I-99 and as far east as a line from Franklin county up to around Selinsgrove. Altoona records nearly a half inch of freezing rain after the initial snow start. Johnstown goes to 0.1c right as the heavy precip arrives. Like I said earlier, if the CAD is stronger than modeled (a real possibility with how guidance interprets CAD), then there could be some serious icing issues Sunday night into Monday AM. How does icing look for Lancaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 How does icing look for Lancaster? According to the grids on the 12z GFS, looks close to 0.10" of ZR for Lancaster. Not enough to cause power outages, but enough to cause some travel headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 And now WSWatches are up for many in this forum until Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Just saw the 06Z NAM and am wondering why no one is talking about the six+ inch snowstorm it is now forecasting for Tuesday???? WOW -- It looks incredible for all of us. It's the NAM...it's never right. EDIT: Watch text URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1119 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-056-063>065-080430- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0009.131208T1800Z-131209T1500Z/ CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR- HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG... STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION... LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK 1119 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ON SUNDAY. FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. * TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. FREEZING RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND ICY CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 And now WSWatches are up for many in this forum until Monday morning What are your/their thoughts on locations east of those currently in the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Ended up with 2.6, puts me at 10.2 for the season. I see UNV officially got 2, so they are at 6 for the season. A bit above normal for the season so far. 5.7 to go for a normal Dec. Doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Reading over on PhillyWx that the Euro ensemble mean continues to mute the big second half of December warmup and shorten its length. The seasonal trend of the models advertising big extended range warmups, then losing them, continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Reading over on PhillyWx that the Euro ensemble mean continues to mute the big second half of December warmup and shorten its length. The seasonal trend of the models advertising big extended range warmups, then losing them, continues. Jamie sorry for off topic how do I get to phillywx? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Jamie sorry for off topic how do I get to phillywx? Thanks phillywx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 phillywx.com Thanks duh sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 SREFS/RGEM and GFS nasty ice storm for SC PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Reading over on PhillyWx that the Euro ensemble mean continues to mute the big second half of December warmup and shorten its length. The seasonal trend of the models advertising big extended range warmups, then losing them, continues. Hi Jamie, I read that as well and mentioned a few days ago how it seems like pattern changes are often modeled in the 10-15 day window but are consistently pushed back. Hopefully that's what we're seeing right now. The cold and active pattern has made for fun tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Reading over on PhillyWx that the Euro ensemble mean continues to mute the big second half of December warmup and shorten its length. The seasonal trend of the models advertising big extended range warmups, then losing them, continues. Well that is good news and a nice change. We have been through many winters where it seems the cold and favorable pattern is always in the 10-14 day range only to keep getting pushed back, or when it does arrive be only temporary and severely muted vs what guidance suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Those ice amounts have been slowly creeping north with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What are your/their thoughts on locations east of those currently in the watch. East of the watch area will likely see an inch or two at the onset with roughly .10-.25" freezing rain accumulations, depending on how far east or west you are. The reason there are watches there is mainly for the potential of freezing rain accumulating above warning levels. I would imagine advisories may be posted farther east, but CTP is likely playing the cards right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Ice forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM looks pretty dry, not seeing warning criteria ice from this one here, but the low temperatures should make anything that does fall pretty messy on the roads / sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Agree this has regionwide wwa written all over it!! Not a lot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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