Central PA - December 2013

[sauss06]

My bad. I thought you had to drive up into York county to see snow.

Enjoy the game Sunday. May be a fun Turnpike ride back!

[Fozz]

My bad. I thought you had to drive up into York county to see snow.

 

I saw a little bit of snow IMBY but also had lots of mixing and rain.... just a little further north, especially Parkton north, it was a legit snowstorm.

[sauss06]

Fozz, how long are you at Millersville, Just this year?

[Atomixwx]

But the $64,000 is; where does the precip **** off?

[Fozz]

Fozz, how long are you at Millersville, Just this year?

 

This year and next year.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Yes. We have ****ty radar coverage too. Lowest level 2/3 beam is several thousand feet high.

 

Yep, on radarscope I can't tell whether I should use LWX or central PA radar. Doesn't seem great either way.

6 of one, half dozen of the other. I usually use the one closer to the origin of the precip, just so I can see what's going on. The terminal Doppler at bwi also reaches us, as does Dover.

For local reflectivity, wgal's super Doppler 8 is your best bet. I believe it's in eastern York somewhere.

[Itstrainingtime]

Enjoy the game Sunday. May be a fun Turnpike ride back!

Thanks Jon. We go out once a year. I always pick games with significant weather. Last year we saw the Skins the day before Sandy hit. I'm fully expecting a long, tedious drive back home.

So, any thoughts on when the mess arrives in the southern counties?

[sauss06]

This year and next year.

i'll make sure not to tell you where my daughter is

 

Thanks Jon. We go out once a year. I always pick games with significant weather. Last year we saw the Skins the day before Sandy hit. I'm fully expecting a long, tedious drive back home.

So, any thoughts on when the mess arrives in the southern counties?

I think Probably mid morning to start.

[AllWeather]

6 of one, half dozen of the other. I usually use the one closer to the origin of the precip, just so I can see what's going on. The terminal Doppler at bwi also reaches us, as does Dover.

For local reflectivity, wgal's super Doppler 8 is your best bet. I believe it's in eastern York somewhere.

Hallam, in York County, to be exact!

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

*ahem*

You are not alone! Our micro climate has several weenies, not much in terms of interesting weather the last several seasons though.

[CarlislePaWx]

Hi Guys...

 

I hope you don't mind me chiming in here about Voyager's original statement earlier this morning.  I was surprised when I read that because it was only just yesterday that I read a couple of posts that mentioned "true central pa" and I stopped for a moment and thought about how much that particular comment was annoying me.  Since I typically do not post anything that could be construed as confrontational, I was almost going to post a reply back right then and there while I was feeling a little bit angry.  I decided to hold off for a while.

 

It was obvious that there are many in here that feel a bit left out when the State College posters primarily post data for the immediately surrounding State College area.  I am sure this is completely unintentional on those posters' part, so I am not trying to pick on any single person from the PSU area.

 

I would like to propose a suggestion to be considered.  When someone with a comprehensive met background (not necessarily degreed) decides to post the output of the models...particularly the Euro...could they please take a moment to also include MDT data?  For many of us in the lower Susquehanna valley it would be much easier to extrapolate the anticipated conditions for a large swath of the south-central and even east-central (Voyager's) areas.  I am only using MDT because I don't know if there are any other specific weather sites northeast of Harrisburg or southeast that would be more meaningful to us.

 

To the poster(s) who were talking about the term central Pennsylvania and who live in York or Lancaster, I believe you are thinking you shouldn't be included in that region because you live in southern portions of the state.  However, I believe that the definition of central PA refers to the state being geographically divided into vertical thirds, not horizontal thirds.  If that is the case then your areas would still be included in the central region.  So, York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, etc could still be considered south-central Pennsylvania.  When the term "true central pa" is referenced I believe they are referring to a geographical area in which the state is divided both into horizontal thirds and vertical thirds.  That creates 9 specific areas in the state, and I am thinking that they mean the region that would literally be the one-ninth portion directly in the center of the state.  Think of a tic-tac-toe board.  True central PA would be the center square.

 

Finally, while not trying to excluded any one met poster, I do believe that MAG tends to do the best job of including the LSV region in his discussions, and I thank him for that very much.  (See his post from around midnight last night).

 

I hope this can be helpful in trying to expand outward the focus of wx analysis in the future.

 

Thanks...

 

Stephen

[PennMan]

Let's move the "Central or not" discussion to the banter thread and try to keep this one for the upcoming storm threats.

[Atomixwx]

Also, does anybody else seem as if there are a LOT of events being talked about right now? Margusity just mentioned "twin coastals" on the 14th and 16th. Ugh. Are you serious, bro?

[Voyager]

Yep, on radarscope I can't tell whether I should use LWX or central PA radar. Doesn't seem great either way.

 

I get that same situation here. Kind of on the edge of both CTP's and PHL's beam.

[JamieOber]

Hi Guys...

 

I hope you don't mind me chiming in here about Voyager's original statement earlier this morning.  I was surprised when I read that because it was only just yesterday that I read a couple of posts that mentioned "true central pa" and I stopped for a moment and thought about how much that particular comment was annoying me.  Since I typically do not post anything that could be construed as confrontational, I was almost going to post a reply back right then and there while I was feeling a little bit angry.  I decided to hold off for a while.

 

It was obvious that there are many in here that feel a bit left out when the State College posters primarily post data for the immediately surrounding State College area.  I am sure this is completely unintentional on those posters' part, so I am not trying to pick on any single person from the PSU area.

 

I would like to propose a suggestion to be considered.  When someone with a comprehensive met background (not necessarily degreed) decides to post the output of the models...particularly the Euro...could they please take a moment to also include MDT data?  For many of us in the lower Susquehanna valley it would be much easier to extrapolate the anticipated conditions for a large swath of the south-central and even east-central (Voyager's) areas.  I am only using MDT because I don't know if there are any other specific weather sites northeast of Harrisburg or southeast that would be more meaningful to us.

 

To the poster(s) who were talking about the term central Pennsylvania and who live in York or Lancaster, I believe you are thinking you shouldn't be included in that region because you live in southern portions of the state.  However, I believe that the definition of central PA refers to the state being geographically divided into vertical thirds, not horizontal thirds.  If that is the case then your areas would still be included in the central region.  So, York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, etc could still be considered south-central Pennsylvania.  When the term "true central pa" is referenced I believe they are referring to a geographical area in which the state is divided both into horizontal thirds and vertical thirds.  That creates 9 specific areas in the state, and I am thinking that they mean the region that would literally be the one-ninth portion directly in the center of the state.  Think of a tic-tac-toe board.  True central PA would be the center square.

 

Finally, while not trying to excluded any one met poster, I do believe that MAG tends to do the best job of including the LSV region in his discussions, and I thank him for that very much.  (See his post from around midnight last night).

 

I hope this can be helpful in trying to expand outward the focus of wx analysis in the future.

 

Thanks...

 

Stephen

The overwhelming majority of time, I do, unless there's nothing interesting happening in MDT. I've from the area, so I get it. 

[djr5001]

Hi Guys...

 

I hope you don't mind me chiming in here about Voyager's original statement earlier this morning.  I was surprised when I read that because it was only just yesterday that I read a couple of posts that mentioned "true central pa" and I stopped for a moment and thought about how much that particular comment was annoying me.  Since I typically do not post anything that could be construed as confrontational, I was almost going to post a reply back right then and there while I was feeling a little bit angry.  I decided to hold off for a while.

 

It was obvious that there are many in here that feel a bit left out when the State College posters primarily post data for the immediately surrounding State College area.  I am sure this is completely unintentional on those posters' part, so I am not trying to pick on any single person from the PSU area.

 

I would like to propose a suggestion to be considered.  When someone with a comprehensive met background (not necessarily degreed) decides to post the output of the models...particularly the Euro...could they please take a moment to also include MDT data?  For many of us in the lower Susquehanna valley it would be much easier to extrapolate the anticipated conditions for a large swath of the south-central and even east-central (Voyager's) areas.  I am only using MDT because I don't know if there are any other specific weather sites northeast of Harrisburg or southeast that would be more meaningful to us.

 

To the poster(s) who were talking about the term central Pennsylvania and who live in York or Lancaster, I believe you are thinking you shouldn't be included in that region because you live in southern portions of the state.  However, I believe that the definition of central PA refers to the state being geographically divided into vertical thirds, not horizontal thirds.  If that is the case then your areas would still be included in the central region.  So, York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, etc could still be considered south-central Pennsylvania.  When the term "true central pa" is referenced I believe they are referring to a geographical area in which the state is divided both into horizontal thirds and vertical thirds.  That creates 9 specific areas in the state, and I am thinking that they mean the region that would literally be the one-ninth portion directly in the center of the state.  Think of a tic-tac-toe board.  True central PA would be the center square.

 

Finally, while not trying to excluded any one met poster, I do believe that MAG tends to do the best job of including the LSV region in his discussions, and I thank him for that very much.  (See his post from around midnight last night).

 

I hope this can be helpful in trying to expand outward the focus of wx analysis in the future.

 

Thanks...

 

Stephen

Including MDT not a problem at all... I have access to Euro text data so I can post it when needed... I know Jamie and MAG have included MDT in the past as well, just wasn't relevent last week to include too often when the focus was more to Altoona, Johnstown, and State College areas... just takes us longer into the season to get into true threats... also tough to cover all locations for each model run because it just ends up a mess of a cluster of data... but here is a list of what I feel are key airport codes for our subforum - feel free to add if I am missing one that suits your location better so we have an idea of where all to try and cover:

 

KJST - Johnstown

KAOO - Altoona

KDUJ - DuBois

KFIG - Clearfield

KUNV - State College

KIPT - Williamsport

KSEG - Selinsgrove

KMDT - Harrisburg

KTHV - York

KLNS - Lancaster

KRDG - Reading

KAVP - Wilkes-Barre Scranton

KMPO - Mount Pocono

KABE - Allentown

[jm1220]

Also, does anybody else seem as if there are a LOT of events being talked about right now? Margusity just mentioned "twin coastals" on the 14th and 16th. Ugh. Are you serious, bro?

I don't think I've read one column from him in 2-3 winters.

[Atomixwx]

I don't think I've read one column from him in 2-3 winters.

I'm right there with you. I still have him "liked" on fb for some reason.

[AllWeather]

I'm right there with you. I still have him "liked" on fb for some reason.

I follow him too. For the sole reason of watching weenies being fed in their natural environment.

[north pgh]

I hate when the mets use the term "Wintry mix"

[Cashtown_Coop]

I follow him too. For the sole reason of watching weenies being fed in their natural environment.

haha exactly!

[NortheastPAWx]

I hate to be that guy but could we go on to some storm discussion? I mean, we've got 2-3 storms coming and there's barely any discussion...

[NeffsvilleWx]

I hate to be that guy but could we go on to some storm discussion? I mean, we've got 2-3 storms coming and there's barely any discussion...

 

I cancelled winter for the LSV, remember? You "True central PA" guys, feel free to chat it up.

[Rdd9108]

Its funny my local met doesnt even want to say amounts. He keeps saying "wintry mix". Funny though his temperatures are way off from the various models that have surface.

[Mallow]

I hate to be that guy but could we go on to some storm discussion? I mean, we've got 2-3 storms coming and there's barely any discussion...

 

Friday night's storm is looking good to me. 09z SREF mean/max snow was 0.04/0.35, and the 15z bumped it up to 0.32/0.95. I think 2-4 inches, with 6"+ not out of the question.

[NeffsvilleWx]

NAM has rain for RDG and MDT, GFS has a few inches of snow after some rain on friday.

[MAG5035]

Hi Guys...

 

I hope you don't mind me chiming in here about Voyager's original statement earlier this morning.  I was surprised when I read that because it was only just yesterday that I read a couple of posts that mentioned "true central pa" and I stopped for a moment and thought about how much that particular comment was annoying me.  Since I typically do not post anything that could be construed as confrontational, I was almost going to post a reply back right then and there while I was feeling a little bit angry.  I decided to hold off for a while.

 

It was obvious that there are many in here that feel a bit left out when the State College posters primarily post data for the immediately surrounding State College area.  I am sure this is completely unintentional on those posters' part, so I am not trying to pick on any single person from the PSU area.

 

I would like to propose a suggestion to be considered.  When someone with a comprehensive met background (not necessarily degreed) decides to post the output of the models...particularly the Euro...could they please take a moment to also include MDT data?  For many of us in the lower Susquehanna valley it would be much easier to extrapolate the anticipated conditions for a large swath of the south-central and even east-central (Voyager's) areas.  I am only using MDT because I don't know if there are any other specific weather sites northeast of Harrisburg or southeast that would be more meaningful to us.

 

To the poster(s) who were talking about the term central Pennsylvania and who live in York or Lancaster, I believe you are thinking you shouldn't be included in that region because you live in southern portions of the state.  However, I believe that the definition of central PA refers to the state being geographically divided into vertical thirds, not horizontal thirds.  If that is the case then your areas would still be included in the central region.  So, York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, etc could still be considered south-central Pennsylvania.  When the term "true central pa" is referenced I believe they are referring to a geographical area in which the state is divided both into horizontal thirds and vertical thirds.  That creates 9 specific areas in the state, and I am thinking that they mean the region that would literally be the one-ninth portion directly in the center of the state.  Think of a tic-tac-toe board.  True central PA would be the center square.

 

Finally, while not trying to excluded any one met poster, I do believe that MAG tends to do the best job of including the LSV region in his discussions, and I thank him for that very much.  (See his post from around midnight last night).

 

I hope this can be helpful in trying to expand outward the focus of wx analysis in the future.

 

Thanks...

 

Stephen

 

Your quite welcome, though I'll be the first one to admit that I throw around the true central PA term as much as anyone in here or more so haha.

 

When I discuss the different areas that make up our overall subforum area, I generally consider "true central" as if you would divide PA into thirds vertically. So places like Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Williamsport, Clearfield, Lewistown, etc are in this region. Thats a rough way to describe it I guess.. I thought about going into a long drawn out explanation but instead I decided to make a map of my take on major regions in PA are when I discuss weather things. Please note that I am NOT specifying regions in which posters should post or make threads for and etc.. nor is it an exact science where I drew the lines.

 

 

You'll see that there is a dashed line and below that dashed line is what I would call south central PA. Certain weather events are better served making that distinction, such as snow events that favor the half of PA for example. 

[skiier04]

Friday night's storm is looking good to me. 09z SREF mean/max snow was 0.04/0.35, and the 15z bumped it up to 0.32/0.95. I think 2-4 inches, with 6"+ not out of the question.

 

Well that's pretty awesome!!  NWS seems quite bullish now, calling for rain/snow friday, but .50-.75 precip all snow friday night!!  Could be a nice surprise.  With the slop storm Sunday followed by a deep freeze, could be looking at a nice snow pack for quite a while 

[canderson]

Just realized my parents in NE Texas are about to get a major ice storm. Bad thing for that whole area that is heavily forested. Ugh.

To our weather, I doubt Friday MDT sees accumulation since temps need to crash quickly.

[MAG5035]

Just realized my parents in NE Texas are about to get a major ice storm. Bad thing for that whole area that is heavily forested. Ugh.

To our weather, I doubt Friday MDT sees accumulation since temps need to crash quickly.

 

We have quite a lively map of the US currently with a ton of winter/ice storm headlines. 

 

 

I think MDT will see some snow Friday night but I do agree that it may not happen with enough precip left to do much in the way of accumulations. Most of the model guidance I've seen focuses the axis of heavier snows near or just north of Pittsburgh and runs it northeastward from there, actually leaving most of the central areas with more of a 1-2 type event. The Euro curiously has a much more expansive area of decent snowfall, covering much of Pennsylvania within it's 3 inch contour (except for a small portion of the north central and SE PA).

 

CTP has a snow map out for this, with 1-2" for the northern part of the LSV above Harrisburg and <1" south of there. Widespread 2-4 encompasses the central and the southern Laurels have 4-6" attm. I'm sure CTP will be eventually entertaining advisories for at least the western part of CWA. 

 

I think the bigger event is going to be the Sun into Monday one. With the support of a strong high up north, it has the look of an event where most folks see a few inches on the front end before transitioning to a mix and in some cases plain rain. The true central PA region (AOO/UNV/IPT) could see quite a prolonged sleet/freezing rain event out of this.