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Lower hudson valley winter 13' discussion


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 Yeah it just looks like the whole thing is moving SE kind of...not good if youre hoping for the NAMS half foot but Ill take whatever I can get

NAM busted around dinner time. Hoping for the EUROs 2-3 but right now I'm having sleet fest. Usually I do a bit better than most as I'm almost 1,000 ft up so I'm not nearly as optimistic as I was earlier. Amazing how the precip shield shifted from Indianapolis to E.PA since dinner time

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I went out around 8pm last night and there was sleet mixing with the rain and I thought maybe we had a shot. I came home around 9:30 and it was just rain again. I knew I was cooked at that point at least IMBY.

It was strange as it had characteristics of a BD cold front in that you saw places like White Plains with a DP of 35 early in the evening while Newburgh was at 41. KSWF also reported a temp of 147 around 9 pm last night as their sensor obviously went haywire. LoL

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One aspect of this weekend’s storms reminds me of the boxing day event in from a few years ago, the nearer to the event we get, the better the models get (if you want snow). As per usual with lows transitioning from inland to the coast  the Mid-Hudson Valley is sitting just north of the precip transition zone so low placement, depth and timing will determine actual weather. Regardless, it’s the first descent local system to track of the winter season and its coming  on a holiday season weekend so most of us will be able to enjoy the holiday appropriate weather.

 

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While we might not end up with the highest QPF from this upcoming event in ALB, these soundings suggest a very moist and deep snow growth region... snowfall to liquid ratios in ALB will probably be in the 15-20:1 range in the early portion of the event. I wouldn't underestimate the snow accumulation potential in the early portion of this event, especially if we get a frontogenetically forced band over the region.

 

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While we might not end up with the highest QPF from this upcoming event in ALB, these soundings suggest a very moist and deep snow growth region... snowfall to liquid ratios in ALB will probably be in the 15-20:1 range in the early portion of the event. I wouldn't underestimate the snow accumulation potential in the early portion of this event, especially if we get a frontogenetically forced band over the region.

 

Definitely. The 12z GFS suggests an area of 850 mb frontogenesis over ENY 18z Saturday so there may be some mesoscale lift along with the background synoptic lift from warm air advection.

 

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One aspect of this weekend’s storms reminds me of the boxing day event in from a few years ago, the nearer to the event we get, the better the models get (if you want snow). As per usual with lows transitioning from inland to the coast  the Mid-Hudson Valley is sitting just north of the precip transition zone so low placement, depth and timing will determine actual weather. Regardless, it’s the first descent local system to track of the winter season and its coming  on a holiday season weekend so most of us will be able to enjoy the holiday appropriate weather.

Yeah, this is the first system that had my interest this season.  Needless to say I'm glad we will see something out of this, just a question of how much and the trend has been our friend for better snows.  I'm looking foward to watching the Army Navy game with some buddies and my sons with snow flying and spread some holiday cheer well into the evening.  Maybe, just maybe, Army will break the streak...it would be another Festivus miracle!

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Yeah, this is the first system that had my interest this season.  Needless to say I'm glad we will see something out of this, just a question of how much and the trend has been our friend for better snows.  I'm looking foward to watching the Army Navy game with some buddies and my sons with snow flying and spread some holiday cheer well into the evening.  Maybe, just maybe, Army will break the streak...it would be another Festivus miracle!

 

Go ARMY! Keep an ear our for thunder snow

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Too bad the game ended like it has for far too long now... Sitting at 14 now and my beer outside is more like a slushy, had to move the beer inside to the fridge to warm up LOL

 

Yes it has gone on too long, maybe next year... Put the beer in the fridge to warm up? :lol: We just started cranking the heavy snow last night and that warm layer came in and crashed the party. What were everyone’s totals? I didn’t measure but it looks to be around 7 to 8 inches. EDIT measured 7.1 on the deck @ 2:00pm

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Yes it has gone on too long, maybe next year... Put the beer in the fridge to warm up? :lol: We just started cranking the heavy snow last night and that warm layer came in and crashed the party. What were everyone’s totals? I didn’t measure but it looks to be around 7 to 8 inches. EDIT measured 7.1 on the deck @ 2:00pm

7-8 for me too, I think my snow board is in a spot affecting by the wind just a touch.  I didn't think there was much wind until I went out yesterday and saw drifting on house roofs out near me. 

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A belated Merry Christmas to you too! Those squalls that came through on Christmas Eve were a pain in my ass, my son hit the guiderail in my wifes car. Luckily my sons are ok but I need a new front bumper and quarter panel.

Sorry to hear that. At least they are ok. As the saying goes.... Cars can be replaced.... People can't.

Looking like some snow and bitter cold coming up.

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A belated Merry Christmas to you too!  Those squalls that came through on Christmas Eve were a pain in my ass, my son hit the guiderail in my wifes car.  Luckily my sons are ok but I need a new front bumper and quarter panel.  

 

Sorry to hear that Rob, glad he's ok, what are your thoughts on this storm? Not very excited as of yet over the snow amount but the cold is and will be impressive

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Sorry to hear that Rob, glad he's ok, what are your thoughts on this storm? Not very excited as of yet over the snow amount but the cold is and will be impressive

I'm not sure, I see what looks like a dry slot developing to the SW and could be pointing in our direction. The cold won't disappoint though.

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