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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I didn't imply that it was crucial; I merely asked why the model was doing that so I could learn.

Who knows why its not showing more...maybe some interference with that pv trying to phase in, but its doubtful we'd get little qpf if the low does what it does on that run.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I didn't imply that it was crucial; I merely asked why the model was doing that so I could learn.

It could come back balls to the wall at 00z. For whatever reason, perhaps it doesn't like the forcing/waa with it. I've seen models do this before...you think it would have more qpf than it shows. Usually, they increase a little as the event gets closer so I don't worry about it when we are a week out. I'm just speculating since I can't look at any detailed stuff on the euro.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

It could come back balls to the wall at 00z. For whatever reason, perhaps it doesn't like the forcing/waa with it. I've seen models do this before...you think it would have more qpf than it shows. Usually, they increase a little as the event gets closer so I don't worry about it when we are a week out. I'm just speculating since I can't look at any detailed stuff on the euro.

Thanks....just curious; obviously QPF isn't crucial at day 7.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I guess the Euro never really bought on this current event until those two errant runs within 4 days... So it's good to see it showing a real threat at day 7 maybe.

At this point, you just want to see something close...and hope it stays close until a few days out. Even then, we see how bad it can go wrong when the Euro is gung ho at 90 hours...

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Posted
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I guess the Euro never really bought on this current event until those two errant runs within 4 days... So it's good to see it showing a real threat at day 7 maybe.

I'm confident in this one, Rick.....not just playing a hunch, either.

Been consistently modeled and I just can't fathom coming out of this month without one appreciable event.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

.3", here....only in 2010 can we have a 984 mb low crawling just under the BM producing only an advisory event. :lol:

Are you seriously complaining? Only in 2010 would complain that a model is not showing a blizzard one week out. Given the threats we've had and missed from 7-10 days out, you should be happy it's not showing one.

29.0/17

Edit: apologies, Ray. I just read your other posts.

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Posted
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Are you seriously complaining? Only in 2010 would complain that a model is not showing a blizzard one week out. Given the threats we've had and missed from 7-10 days out, you should be happy it's not showing one.

29.0/17

Edit: apologies, Ray. I just read your other posts.

Yea, that was kind of a tongue-in-cheek post, but if any year could pull that off.....:lol: I mean, take a look back at some of the set ups we have had and what transipred.

I do think this one will come through...not a HECS, but a nice mod event.

Many great years didn't kickoff until just after xmas, most notably Jerry's ultimate fetish season of 1993-94.

2004-05, other than the one fluke November event around Vet's day, didn't get going until the same day this one is modeled.

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Posted
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The 12z GFS is simply awe inspiring; perfectly situated 1036 mb high couples with a 975 mb low just inside the BM to create a 1978 esc PG, all the while dumping over a foot inside of rt 495 (likely extending further in actuality).

That chart probably implies about a 2' for someone just to the poleward side of the cf front along the immediate N shore and through Boston into the S shore, with some OES contribution to boot, along the n and s shores, respectively.

Cf would not sniff rt 128 with that pp pattern...no way; heavy, heavy ageostrophic flow.

That is a more intense version of December 2003.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS is simply awe inspiring; perfectly situated 1036 mb high couples with a 975 mb low just inside the BM to create a 1978 esc PG, all the while dumping over a foot inside of rt 495 (likely extending further in actuality).

That chart probably implies about a 2' for someone just to the poleward side of the cf front along the immediate N shore and through Boston into the S shore, with some OES contribution to boot, along the n and s shores, respectively.

Cf would not sniff rt 128 with that pp pattern...no way; heavy, heavy ageostrophic flow.

That is a more intense version of December 2003.

Yeah 12z GFS is beautiful. Widespread 10-20" from HFD-PVD-BOS. Nice winds too.

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