Jim Marusak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 South central and north central. Talking about pa here, lol. sorry. I know it's PA, but usually I have the state abbreviations and/or observations sites in caps and sections spelled out or in small letters to keep the confusion to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Legendary and I hope anyone who posts a prediction map these days at least uses Paint Shop Pro or GIMP for the layered imagery than can have opacity turned down to appropriate levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Euro solid hit for south central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 interesting. looks like the GFS and the EURO are almost exactly on the same path through 144 while the Canadian is further inland but faster. as well at 850, Euro sees the coldest, then the Canadian a bit warmer, then the GFS the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 naah. it'll be state college gets some, i-81 gets clocked, i-78 gets iced over like no tomorrow, and the philly/central NJ people complain because they'll get slushed out. Is this just a tongue-in-cheek post, or is this a scenario that has real potential? I'm right in the heart of the I-81 corridor and have a very busy Thanksgiving week planned as my mother is visiting us from Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It was mentioned before but be careful with those snowfall maps. They often don't jive with 1000-850 mb thicknesses or temperature profiles in the warmer areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 FWIW, the Coolwx graphics show a mostly frozen event for Harrisburg, Reading, and Scranton, while Allentown is split 50/50 with freezing/frozen for the event. On the IPS MeteoStar site, it seems the 850's are at 0c or below for most of the event for the four metro areas I mentioned, with the exception of Allentown, where the 850's rise to +2c for a period of time. I don't know if those are exactly the best sites to use, but for me it gives me a quick "down and dirty" instead of navigating through the maps on the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like the gap was narrowed between the Euro and GFS last night. I think we'll get the precip with this one. As always, 50-75 miles in track will be a huge difference maker and I'd much rather be sitting in UNV than LNS right now since temps will most likely be borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like Monday we (Lower Susq. Valley) could see our first teens. Damn it looks cold Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Best sign: DGEX STILL hasn't caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 This has higher elevation I 81 special written all over it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks like Monday we (Lower Susq. Valley) could see our first teens. Damn it looks cold Sunday/Monday.qNo joke. Gonna need to drink extra bourbon that day to stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Shut up Jamie, your climate IS stupid. You're right though, we're more midatlantic than cpa. I'd normally be playing the GFS southeast bias card heavily with this type of deal at this range but I also wonder if the progressive theme to the pattern could be playing more into the GFS's wheelhouse over the more wound up Euro... esp after the GFS scored on the busted coastal threat earlier in the month. Should be interesting to watch. Yeah, climo is far more unfavorable right now in the far SE corner of CTP's area so it's tough for us but I did cash in on the October 29th 2011 storm so I'm always hopeful. We all have a chance with this one, possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You can pretty much lock this up since most of the weather weenies (myself included) will be on Turkey Day break and away from State College! But seriously, solid agreement between the GFS, EURO, and GGEM at 5.5 days out is actually meaningful. It's just unfortunate that there is a lack of cold pre-storm. Afterwards, there will be no shortage of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 06z GFS @ KMDT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 FWIW, the Coolwx graphics show a mostly frozen event for Harrisburg, Reading, and Scranton, while Allentown is split 50/50 with freezing/frozen for the event. On the IPS MeteoStar site, it seems the 850's are at 0c or below for most of the event for the four metro areas I mentioned, with the exception of Allentown, where the 850's rise to +2c for a period of time. I don't know if those are exactly the best sites to use, but for me it gives me a quick "down and dirty" instead of navigating through the maps on the NCEP site. I am still concerned about ice potential for at least the LSV region, especially if timing is early morning or late evening/overnight - ocean surface temps are still quite warm as well so even with more easterly than southerly flow into the region as the system approaches I believe it ends up slightly too warm aloft to support any major snow before the last hour or so before departure. Surface temperatures will be in the 30s, just a matter of upper 30s and a cold rain or low 30s and some ice. This could very well be one of those early season systems here that we see rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow all in a 24 hour period. As for the central part of the state, it is going to be flat out cold this weekend. I am curious to see how well any LES bands develop with the dry air mass/strong northwesterly winds. If the JST/AOO/State College cooridor can get any LES or or orographic enhanced accumulations then temperatures could very well be held in the 30s at best when the high pressure moves in early next week. MOS numbers currently predict highs in the 40s for much of the state on Tuesday, but I believe at this range it is still relying on the fact that climatological normals are there. With weak warm air advection associated with that high, the cold air could very well hang around long enough to cause issues. Anyone else thinking the same thing/something similar? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am still concerned about ice potential for at least the LSV region, especially if timing is early morning or late evening/overnight - ocean surface temps are still quite warm as well so even with more easterly than southerly flow into the region as the system approaches I believe it ends up slightly too warm aloft to support any major snow before the last hour or so before departure. Surface temperatures will be in the 30s, just a matter of upper 30s and a cold rain or low 30s and some ice. This could very well be one of those early season systems here that we see rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow all in a 24 hour period. As for the central part of the state, it is going to be flat out cold this weekend. I am curious to see how well any LES bands develop with the dry air mass/strong northwesterly winds. If the JST/AOO/State College cooridor can get any LES or or orographic enhanced accumulations then temperatures could very well be held in the 30s at best when the high pressure moves in early next week. MOS numbers currently predict highs in the 40s for much of the state on Tuesday, but I believe at this range it is still relying on the fact that climatological normals are there. With weak warm air advection associated with that high, the cold air could very well hang around long enough to cause issues. Anyone else thinking the same thing/something similar? Thoughts? South of I-78 there will be no travel problems. With warm grounds and warm ocean it would be conversational snowflakes on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am still concerned about ice potential for at least the LSV region, especially if timing is early morning or late evening/overnight - ocean surface temps are still quite warm as well so even with more easterly than southerly flow into the region as the system approaches I believe it ends up slightly too warm aloft to support any major snow before the last hour or so before departure. Surface temperatures will be in the 30s, just a matter of upper 30s and a cold rain or low 30s and some ice. This could very well be one of those early season systems here that we see rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow all in a 24 hour period. As for the central part of the state, it is going to be flat out cold this weekend. I am curious to see how well any LES bands develop with the dry air mass/strong northwesterly winds. If the JST/AOO/State College cooridor can get any LES or or orographic enhanced accumulations then temperatures could very well be held in the 30s at best when the high pressure moves in early next week. MOS numbers currently predict highs in the 40s for much of the state on Tuesday, but I believe at this range it is still relying on the fact that climatological normals are there. With weak warm air advection associated with that high, the cold air could very well hang around long enough to cause issues. Anyone else thinking the same thing/something similar? Thoughts? Good thoughts. I think we see our usual pennies-n-nickels 1/2" but nearby could see more and have a pretty solid snowcover. That could help here. FWIW the Euro is not as warm Tues, looks like mid-30s here, upper 30s down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 South of I-78 there will be no travel problems. With warm grounds and warm ocean it would be conversational snowflakes on the back end. There's not going to be much warm ground after the frigid Sunday-Monday period. Up here the ground is already pretty cold, even frozen a bit in the shade the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm just glad we get some precip in here finally!! Something interesting to track is all I ask lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 South of I-78 there will be no travel problems. With warm grounds and warm ocean it would be conversational snowflakes on the back end. That's a good cutoff, makes sense. Although not sure on the warm ground part, even down there. 36 hours of subfreezing temps, mid-upper 30s Mon, even with 40s Tue...that would take that out the window. The warm ocean is the bigger factor, imo. Speaking of ground temps, our ground is in the process of freezing. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 There's not going to be much warm ground after the frigid Sunday-Monday period. Up here the ground is already pretty cold, even frozen a bit in the shade the past few days. Kai'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 That's a good cutoff, makes sense. Although not sure on the warm ground part, even down there. 36 hours of subfreezing temps, mid-upper 30s Mon, even with 40s Tue...that would take that out the window. The warm ocean is the bigger factor, imo. Speaking of ground temps, our ground is in the process of freezing. Crazy. Yeah. SSTs running in the upper 40s and low 50s right on the coast, with mid to upper 50's a little further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 True central PA could have a decent hit of snow...JST / AOO / UNV / SEG / IPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 True central PA could have a decent hit of snow...JST / AOO / UNV / SEG / IPT. Yeah, way it looks now. Looking at the map, 78 is solid for a cutoff right now, the way the highway is situated. I could see stuff like the northern suburbs of Harrisburg and Reading as the start of snowcover when this ends. That is, based on how it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Right now the UNV to SEG to AVP corridor look like a possibility of advisory type snows. This could be a nightmare for the day before thanksgiving though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It was mentioned before but be careful with those snowfall maps. They often don't jive with 1000-850 mb thicknesses or temperature profiles in the warmer areas. This times a million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Low sun angle certainly could cause freezing rain issues in LSV....esp after early next week temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 True central PA could have a decent hit of snow...JST / AOO / UNV / SEG / IPT. It's not Central PA, but would you include AVP or MPO on the list of possible decent snow locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Jamie, any chance you guys up there go single digits, Sunday/Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.