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OKpowdah

Weekend winter storm

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Sunday night could be very interesting.  Usually, I'm skeptical of much frozen mischief south of Hearne, but the timing could be just right...

 

possibility of freezing rain in the forecast for CLL now.  getting the slightest bit optimistic that i could get out of class monday.

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Easily have over a quarter inch of ice on elevated surfaces in Southeast Norman now. I measured 0.20" at 4:20 PM and we've been in moderate freezing rain for the past 2 hours. Guess I'm going to have to get the ice off my car again. :(

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Easily have over a quarter inch of ice on elevated surfaces in Southeast Norman now. I measured 0.20" at 4:20 PM and we've been in moderate freezing rain for the past 2 hours. Guess I'm going to have to get the ice off my car again. :(

I measured 1/3" (as did a few others) in southeast Norman around 830PM and it was pouring. Oof.

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Moved to DFW from Illinois this summer, didn't expect I'd see ice this soon... looks like it'll be rather interesting Monday morning going to work down here.. at least I have an actual ice scraper, unlike a lot of people here

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Moved to DFW from Illinois this summer, didn't expect I'd see ice this soon... looks like it'll be rather interesting Monday morning going to work down here.. at least I have an actual ice scraper, unlike a lot of people here

The vast majority of people down here havent the foggiest notion on how to drive in ice. 2003 sleet storm turned a trip to the gym into an 8 hour odessey.

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GFS is a bit warmer, and quite a bit drier than NAM for DFW.  2 meter temps right on the limits for freezing rain in DFW per GFS, which probably means there will be freezing/frozen.  Not sure which is worse, NAM sleet or snow pellets, but heavier, or GFS lighter but probably freezing rain.

 

GFS does have a small little bullseye of higher precip somewhere between DFW and ACT.  Maybe Hillsboro, small bullseye, but a potentially epic ice storm.

 

I'm sure models will change, IMBY will not be affected, but it is interesting to see weather like this only a couple of hours away.

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The nice thing is when the roads are really bad they all just stay home, so it's actually pretty relaxing driving around with the few other competent folks who know where they're going, what they're doing, how to do it.

 

I'm not used to this cold though.

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Winter Storm Watch issued for Austin Metro and Winter Storm Warnings issued for Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex for Sunday into Monday.

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Keep an eye on the deepening short wave and secondary 1051mb surge of Arctic air dropping S from Canada during the day into tomorrow as the U/L in S California/Arizona moves E across New Mexico and then turns SE across the Lubbock area and heads across Central/SE Texas late on Monday. The 03Z SREF as well as the 06Z HIRES NAM/NAM and the 00Z Euro have been steady with this solution for a couple of cycles. I would not be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories hoisted for portions of SE and E Texas mainly N off I-10 later today if the trends continue. Also as the U/L/trough swings thru, there may be a chance of some light to moderate snow as the column cools sufficiently before the Winter precip ends late Monday into early Tuesday. It is concerning to see the QPF generation output via some of the guidance and the HPC/WPC did cut the QPF of the NAM almost in half to the .50/1.00 inch range as their in house blend suggests the QPF may be a bit to high. The fly in the ointment continues to be the Coastal Low development offshore of the Lower/Middle Texas Coast and if it will be far enough offshore to allow for the mid levels to sufficiently cool. Regardless this looks like a very messy and rather widespread event and is unseasonly early to see such an event for a large portion of Texas extending E into Arkansas and NW Louisiana. HGX is mentioning they may need to issue a Winter Weather Advisory of areas along and N of a Brenham/Conroe/Huntsville/Lake Livingston line later today or early tomorrow. It is also noteworthy that HGX is mentioning the possibility of snow/sleet/freezing rain into Metro Houston early on Tuesday as the upper low phases with the Northern stream as the precip begins to end. Right now no accumulation is expected. 1-2 inch rainfall amounts area expected as a strong short wave and the Coastal Low pass to our S.

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12Z GFS and NAM just not quite as fun as earlier runs, with heavier precip developing a bit too far East of I-35 on both models to crush the big cities..

 

 

Not all bad, the heavier precip is near IMBY.  And the GFS gradient between the cold high and the developing storm in the Gulf looks like some uncomforably strong winds (nothing severe) possible to go with the heavy, cold rain.

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Good pics. Sun shining through trees with ice on them is quite a sight. I assume the ground didn't ice up? Walking on that is like walking on shards of crunchy glass. 

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Good pics. Sun shining through trees with ice on them is quite a sight. I assume the ground didn't ice up? Walking on that is like walking on shards of crunchy glass.

The grass froze up good, but luckily except for some patches of regular black ice the sidewalk and pavement didn't glaze over, which was a real saver for us.

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Major NW trend on the 18z modeling coming in for the precip shield in OK tomorrow. Sharp gradient is 20-40 mi. NW of I-44 now on the NAM and NAM-4km.

 

When it comes to snow in this region, fight climo at your own peril, no matter what models suggest in the medium range.

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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

VALID 00Z SUN NOV 24 2013 - 00Z WED NOV 27 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

...SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INA  ZONE OF STRONG 700 MB WARM./MOIST ADVECTION. FURTHER SOUTH
FROM SOUTHWEST TX ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
ABOVE FREEZING CAUSES FALLING SNOW TO MELT...WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MORE PREVALENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CO/NM ROCKIES...WITH THE SREF/GEFS
MEANS BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO DERIVE
THE SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH MAXIMA IN EACH OF THE RANGES FROM THE SAN
JUANS OF CO/ADJACENT NM ON SOUTH ACROSS NM.

AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS NEW MEXICO...THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TO
REINFORCE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN NORTH TO CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ON DAY 2...PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX.
THE SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS SMALL
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER...THE THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN A
PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AS 06Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS OF
-2 TO -3C BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850 MB IN CENTRAL TX...SUPPORTING
SLEET...AND NOT JUST FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL QPF VALUES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 0.75
INCHES BETWEEN SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION AND FORT HOOD TX.
...TAPERING OFF TO LOWER VALUES HEADING ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO
THE ARKLATEX.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGH IF SLEET LASTS FOR A
LONGER PERIOD. THE HIGH PROBABILITIES REFLECT THAT OUTPUT FROM THE
12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z GEFS MEAN/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ALL EXCEED A
QUARTER INCH IN THIS AREA.  GIVEN THE HIGH 12Z NAM QPF...MORE
WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN THE ECMWF/UKMET/09Z SREF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN
QPF AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.


 

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Major NW trend on the 18z modeling coming in for the precip shield in OK tomorrow. Sharp gradient is 20-40 mi. NW of I-44 now on the NAM and NAM-4km.

 

When it comes to snow in this region, fight climo at your own peril, no matter what models suggest in the medium range.

 

I think the south trend for the 2nd portion of the event Monday over N Texas makes sense, the first half tomorrow which is almost entirely overrunning induced I've been suspicious about the lack of QPF generated by the larger scale models like the GFS/Euro, the NAM/SPC WRF seem way more aggressive on the QPF for most of OK and to an extent even NRN TX...I never trust any sort of upper energy or deep SW flow slamming into a 1040mb + high, you often end up with a much more expansive area of precip than you think or most models indicate...I could easily see some big amounts tomorrow over WRN OK, I think the elevation dropoff will cause some subsidence as you approach I-35 though.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU UNTIL 6 PM CST TODAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU FROM 6 PM CST TODAY UNTIL NOON MONDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
NEW BRAUNFELS FROM 2 PM SUNDAY UNTIL NOON MONDAY...

.MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON
MONDAY.

THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2
PM SUNDAY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
WARNING INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO...SAN MARCOS AND NEW BRAUNFELS
AREAS. ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET. AT THIS TIME...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH...BUT EVEN THESE AMOUNTS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
THROUGHOUT THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

 

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Dendritic growth zone is right around 500mb, and there's a nice deformation zone at 500mb aligned from C KS down into NE OK. There's a band of stronger lift on the warm side, and you can also see the RH gradient tightening toward the axis of dilatation. Need to overcome dry air at the sfc, but once that happens, there's probably a good burst of snow in the late morning across C OK.

 

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Is anybody out there near Clinton, OK or points west? I am curious what, if anything, is happening under that blob on the radar. If it is snow and it is reaching the ground in any quantity, it might give a couple us along I-40 a quick dusting to a half inch of snow ahead of the real show tomorrow.

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Is anybody out there near Clinton, OK or points west? I am curious what, if anything, is happening under that blob on the radar. If it is snow and it is reaching the ground in any quantity, it might give a couple us along I-40 a quick dusting to a half inch of snow ahead of the real show tomorrow.

 

There's light snow being reported in the TX panhandle at 26/23, but with conditions like 32/20 in western OK, I'm guessing nothing is reaching the ground there right now.

 

 

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New NAM a tad warmer.  Looks like sleet with temps between 32F and 33F verbatim Monday morning at DFW.  Not sure if local school districts have entire week off like my wife's school district does.

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The last few runs of the HRRR are not promising at all for OK and even iffy for NRN TX at least as you approach DFW, they show the precip just drying up late night as it crosses through WRN OK

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Last nights GFS also nailed just South of DFW, not DFW itself, with impressive ice.

 

I'm all about the Monday and possible work/school 3 day weekends.

 

Obviously, with family in Bedford and Irving, hoping for the Monday DFW miracle, near the 20th anniversary of the Leon Lett T-Day Cowboys losing to Miami snow/sleet/thunder miracle.  Yes, thunder-sleet and snow pellets in Bedford.  I was there.

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Last nights GFS also nailed just South of DFW, not DFW itself, with impressive ice.

 

I'm all about the Monday and possible work/school 3 day weekends.

 

Obviously, with family in Bedford and Irving, hoping for the Monday DFW miracle, near the 20th anniversary of the Leon Lett T-Day Cowboys losing to Miami snow/sleet/thunder miracle.  Yes, thunder-sleet and snow pellets in Bedford.  I was there.

 

Living in Benbrook and commuting to Hurst is not looking fun Monday morning if that happens lol 

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The radar looks pretty darn impressive with snow almost on the doorstep of Oklahoma City at this hour. Unfortunately, it is really dry out there and I can't find a single observation from anybody in the state of Oklahoma reporting snow (including points to my southwest who seemingly have been under those darker returns for several hours now). Oh well, nothing to do but wait and hope it can overcome the dry air.

EDIT: Altus has been reporting snow for several hours now with, perhaps an inch having fallen so far. Now let's see if we can get it to keep working north and east. That dry air is really fighting tooth and nail.

EDIT NO. 2: As of 6:45 am, snow is now being reported over much of southwest OK including Lawton and Clinton. It is as close to OKC as Chickasha so if things keep progressing the immediate metro might start seeing flakes in the next few hours.

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