CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Miller A brewing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Miller A brewing? With an injection of northern stream energy. I love watching these thing unfold on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 With an injection of northern stream energy. I love watching these thing unfold on the models. Looks like some convection trying to rob us of a low, but precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Some snow in the air Monday night. Lets enjoy this earlier than recent years taste of deep winter! YUP, too much worrying about the distant future when we have legit early season winter weather right in front of us. The GFS yet again did a good job at pinpointing the potential threat next week even in the 10-15 day range. Whether it plays out or not remains to be seen but at least when it seems to have a threat window something occurs in that period. Major improvement over just a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 As fast as everything is moving..and the cold front clearing coast early morn Sat and cold air coming quicker..it seems the timeframe of the coastal should also move up..So instead of T day..Maybe it's Tuesday night into Wed. I highly doubt there will be a clipper Tuesday nite and a big coastal 24 hours later. It's one or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like some convection trying to rob us of a low, but precarious. Yeah, meaningless discussion to be honest. That one will be fun to watch unfold over the weekend between yard work and football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 YUP, too much worrying about the distant future when we have legit early season winter weather right in front of us. The GFS yet again did a good job at pinpointing the potential threat next week even in the 10-15 day range. Whether it plays out or not remains to be seen but at least when it seems to have a threat window something occurs in that period. Major improvement over just a few years ago. Guess you missed the last page of discussion for this weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 As fast as everything is moving..and the cold front clearing coast early morn Sat and cold air coming quicker..it seems the timeframe of the coastal should also move up..So instead of T day..Maybe it's Tuesday night into Wed. I highly doubt there will be a clipper Tuesday nite and a big coastal 24 hours later. It's one or the other There is a little something Monday night bringing a little ra and/or snow for some. The T-day storm is highly dependent on what happens with the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 There is a little something Monday night bringing a little ra and/or snow for some. The T-day storm is highly dependent on what happens with the cutoff. Yup, they are mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS looks like a complete miss wide-right on the Thanksgiving system. Would be a long period of dry cold if that misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS looks like a complete miss wide-right on the Thanksgiving system. Would be a long period of dry cold if that misses. Dry, cold picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yup, they are mutually exclusive. As you might expect, nothing really solved obviously at this stage. GFS op almost looks like the 00z EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS looks like a complete miss wide-right on the Thanksgiving system. Would be a long period of dry cold if that misses. I hate being in a 7 day out bulls eye, Good spot for this one right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nice hit for the fish on this 12z GFS run. It seems to hold back the southern stream energy for decent phasing. In fact that southern stream piece is why you see almost a secondary low form behind the initial one. It leaves the whole thing baggy and weak and doesn't support a real bomb. Timing is everything as always. We will see what future runs have in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Dry, cold picnic tables. Eating a PB&J sandwich at the tables, in a sweater from the 1950s, looking at the frozen barren landscape, counting the upslope flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I hate being in a 7 day out bulls eye, Good spot for this one right now lol. I never really subscribed to that line of thought. I want to be in the bullseye for 7 straight days, haha. But alas, models don't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Eating a PB&J sandwich at the tables, looking at the frozen barren landscape, counting the upslope flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Man the GFS ends on a freezing note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Man the GFS ends on a freezing note. Another massive storm the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 There is a little something Monday night bringing a little ra and/or snow for some. The T-day storm is highly dependent on what happens with the cutoff. IMO it's one or the other..or one morphs into the other or helps/hurts depending on how it plays out. We see this many times where models have 2 separate systems and it ends up morphing into 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 IMO it's one or the other..or one morphs into the other or helps/hurts depending on how it plays out. We see this many times where models have 2 separate systems and it ends up morphing into 1 Well these are separate so they won't really morph. It's either the storm comes up, or goes out to sea. The same trough in the nrn stream that brings a weak system through Monday Night has a back side s/w that will try to dance with the srn stream...but the Monday Night system IMHO won't really have too much of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Northern stream out of phase on this run of the oper. GFS. Lots of time to have features morph around a bit on future charts before the truth comes into better focus. Cautionaries ... The GFS has an E-W bias to some degree, much in the same way the Euro has a N-S bias, for that time range. Hard to say if that is in play on this run, but zipping the northern stream amplitude on a shallow trajectory so quickly up toward NS and beyond, does hearken to that. The other thing is, in spite of that, the GFS schooled the Euro on a system three weeks ago for this type of time range, when it abandoned a coastal idea and the Euro held onto it for 2 full additional days. That could very well have been a fluke, less seasonal and/or inherent model performance trends. Have to wait and see... Seems about even, 50% pros and cons butting heads here. The overall theme around that though is an interesting apparent periodicity with EPO cold dumbs that cut into the GL-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Well these are separate so they won't really morph. It's either the storm comes up, or goes out to sea. The same trough in the nrn stream that brings a weak system through Monday Night has a back side s/w that will try to dance with the srn stream...but the Monday Night system IMHO won't really have too much of an effect. Yea many times like Jan 05 we get this Arctic intrusion with a good windex event then the big dog. Pretty cool when that happens, sets the stage sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Miller A brewing? God I hope not....they typically suck up here...very tough to get a good track. Phil on the other hand... In Waterbury ct. 39 here, stii 34/14 St the pit. Off to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Not only is the 12z GEFS ensemble mean faster at ejecting the southern stream than the op but it's also more amplified so far through hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Guess you missed the last page of discussion for this weekend and early next week. In the November discussion there's a lot of December talk I was just worried about running afoul of the moderating rules. There really has been so much talk of what can go wrong. We're muting out the mild and the cold shots are impressive and are accompanied by potential flakeage. It's been a rough few years so everyone is in the "what can go wrong" mindset, but this has looked for some time to be a more traditional winter at least for the foreseeable future. <--(bad choice of words, but I thought it was pretty clear that we're looking good and have been for some time. Some threats will work out, others won't obviously, but it's predominantly cool/cold) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Canadian FWIW is OTS too, but not like it matters a whole lot either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 In the November discussion there's a lot of December talk I was just worried about running afoul of the moderating rules. There really has been so much talk of what can go wrong. We're muting out the mild and the cold shots are impressive and are accompanied by potential flakeage. It's been a rough few years so everyone is in the "what can go wrong" mindset, but this has looked for some time to be a more traditional winter at least for the foreseeable future. <--(bad choice of words, but I thought it was pretty clear that we're looking good and have been for some time. Some threats will work out, others won't obviously, but it's predominantly cool/cold) A rough couple of years? Huh? It's been a great couple of years winter wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 GEFS look pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Canadian FWIW is OTS too, but not like it matters a whole lot either way. Completely misses the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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