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ORH_wxman

November weather dicsussion

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Well 18z GFS has no frozen precip from the synoptic storm this weekend, even up here. Decent upslope response still progged though, which I'm sure will make many feel better, lol.

Just another in the wide range of possibilities.

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Yeah that's what I thought too..hence the north of 40 look..Phew

 

Many energy mets fear an Aleutian ridge for the east, but that doesn't necessarily apply for 40N. Of course that is assuming they are correct.

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Many energy mets fear an Aleutian ridge for the east, but that doesn't necessarily apply for 40N. Of course that is assuming they are correct.

How did they look week by week?

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Caution, this is an op run and I am not a pro at this lol...

 

We may be seeing the Strat PV trying to split o the euro op out by day 10.

 

 

 

 

This may be due to a wave 2 response as shown here that will try and disrupt the PV.

 

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Caution, this is an op run and I am not a pro at this lol...

 

We may be seeing the Strat PV trying to split o the euro op out by day 10.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf50f240.gif

 

 

 

This may be due to a wave 2 response as shown here that will try and disrupt the PV.

 

attachicon.gifecmwfzm_ha2_f216.gif

That would be nice if it happened. HM was mentioning this potential. Another factor to consider for December.

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That would be nice if it happened. HM was mentioning this potential. Another factor to consider for December.

Well the ensembles don't seem as enthusiastic with a PV split. There is a hint at it, but not as clear as the op.

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Well the ensembles don't seem as enthusiastic with a PV split. There is a hint at it, but not as clear as the op.

But isn't something like that smoothed out in an ensemble mean?

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Well I think there's reason to be optimistic given everything. Things could fall apart but I like where we sit the night of 11/18.

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Well my fault for posting a lot...some of it probably gets missed. :lol:

 

I know you are kidding...so was I with the cutter then cold comment. I'm only discussing the possibilities of why we should be more patient. Gun to head....the pattern really is pretty good over the next couple of weeks I think. Maybe it rains on the coast, but I think the interior is looking at a good potential for at least a moderate snowstorm over the next two weeks.

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Those indices look good. I was thinking (not recommended) Is early season arctic air release into CONUS more dependent on +PNA or -NAO? Or a combination? 
 

First you need the bottled up frigidity and climo-wise is gaining strength, so usually that's a given. Secondly a mechanism to release. This time of year I would think a -NAO is more important than a neutral or -/+ PNA. Such a balancing act. Later on as the season progresses a + PNA gains more importance for sustainability.          

     

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Given the teleconnection progs, the Ens progs, the weeklies look, the analog look, the next 6-14 days should be , much cooler than normal, provide opportunities for wintry events. 20 analog dates for days 6-14 produce this composite.

39b20c9725337429ac61674b34bdd48e.jpg

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Interesting strong push to some pretty cold 850 s, wonder where they bottom out

 

Yeah Ginxy, I'm getting a lot more confident on the cold.  I know you've been banging the drum for a while, but I'm getting there slowly, lol.  Hopefully we can get an active pattern.   I could sort of see this going the dry route this winter, but if its cold, that'll give chances when they come.  A couple threats though in the next couple weeks isn't too bad.  Hopefully we can up the frequency of precip events a little bit, keep it active.  That's what makes 07-08 so awesome...there was a storm to track every 3-5 days all winter, lol.  And they were mostly gradient mixed events which made forecasting it so difficult, but some great convo during those events.

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GFS is a way westward cutter for the weekend.

 

GGEM has not much of a wave at all...almost something weak along the arctic front.

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Well, the AFD puts a stake in the heart of snow lovers.  The smallest glimmers of hope presented at the end, but this one's shaping up to be a rainer.  At least we'll have the cold.  :)

 

Gusted to 29mph during the overnight--looks like we'll have a nice breeze continuing.  Still a little mild.

 

35.5/25

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From the analogs maps I saw, it ould seem euro ens are mild 11-15 and then cooler thereafter? Still overall a decent look at H5.

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