Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 lol - I wasn't sure if you were annoyed by "Sultan of Shivers" Hell no my skin is thick but my memory longer LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It is interesting, as we've been running verification on our new days 4-8 methodology we've noticed the Euro being one of the poorer performers on max/min temps in the last several weeks. That's for all 2000+ forecast grids in our CWA. low or hi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 low or hi? Just MAE in general. In the extended it hovered around 5 deg off, versus out official forecast and HPC being closer to 3. It did do better on high temps versus lows. I haven't gotten into the biases yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 ? Not sure I'd "feel good" about a 180-240 hour op Euro run that we're extrapolating out to Thanksgiving week lol. GFS/GEFS (which I think have been doing as well if not better than the Euro) show a much milder solution with near or just above normal temps for most of Thanksgiving week. that doesn't seem to make much sense given the pattern. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Sounds like the recipe for icestorms in Dec. That would be niceNothing more fun than having no electricity for two weeks. Yipee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It is interesting, as we've been running verification on our new days 4-8 methodology we've noticed the Euro being one of the poorer performers on max/min temps in the last several weeks. That's for all 2000+ forecast grids in our CWA. Is it sloped? We'd think that a D4 would be better than D8. Also, the tendency for the Euro to over dig troughs aob D6's, I am wondering if majority of your error mass is around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Holy wowzer! This is probably one of the most extreme T/DP depressions I have ever seen in this area: FIT 151952 CLR 10 62 6 2008 192 I'm wondering if that may be a bias in instrumentation because the other sites are around 12F for DP. Still, this is some epic dryness out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 the euro cut back on the .75" amounts for monday. depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Euro ensembles are enthusiastic about bringing the cold back in here next weekend. We'll see what they show beyond that as they are out to D8-9 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 ? Not sure I'd "feel good" about a 180-240 hour op Euro run that we're extrapolating out to Thanksgiving week lol. GFS/GEFS (which I think have been doing as well if not better than the Euro) show a much milder solution with near or just above normal temps for most of Thanksgiving week. No they don't at least from what I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Euro ensembles are enthusiastic about bringing the cold back in here next weekend. We'll see what they show beyond that as they are out to D8-9 right now. Nice +PNA - transient though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Nice +PNA - transient though? Yeah it might be. Not sold on cold after T-day week or even for the end of Thanksgiving week. Looks like some uncertainty out in that range after the initial shot next weekend...it has us below average for T-day and beyond , but not by a lot and it looks like a an ambiguous signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yeah it might be. Not sold on cold after T-day week or even for the end of Thanksgiving week. Looks like some uncertainty out in that range after the initial shot next weekend...it has us below average for T-day and beyond , but not by a lot and it looks like a an ambiguous signal.Of course they are. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward? So don't be accurate and just go extreme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Just a bit of disagreement over the NAO domain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 So don't be accurate and just go extreme? I'm just asking why we can't talk about the positive signs. That is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 So the euro ensembles look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward? it's not about looking for positives and negatives....it's being objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Wow, I was 21F at 6:30am. You have some of the lowest daytime temps in the area and some of the highest nighttime! Life at 1K. I don't think I had anything low today with my temp--got up to 57.0!! 48.0/23 now as is the euro (though pretty strong with the late week/weekend/la-la land shot). fair amount of precip with the fropa though. I'm happy to see the precip being modeled....even if it struggles to come through as robustly as depicted, it gives hope to a pattern change as we head deeper into the cooler seasons. lol - I wasn't sure if you were annoyed by "Sultan of Shivers" LOL Just a bit of disagreement over the NAO domain.. test8.gif Man--just a little bit. IS there a yin-yang symbol someplace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 So the euro ensembles look good? They look ok...not nearly as good as yesterday's 12z run. They show a more prnounced cold shot next weekend, but beyond that is very uncertain...large spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Wow, I was 21F at 6:30am. You have some of the lowest daytime temps in the area and some of the highest nighttime! Life at 1K. I don't think I had anything low today with my temp--got up to 57.0!! 48.0/23 now Oops--my bad. I had the wrong station open--topped out at 51.0 at the Pit. Still a toasty day, though. 47.7/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 They look ok...not nearly as good as yesterday's 12z run. They show a more prnounced cold shot next weekend, but beyond that is very uncertain...large spread.That's to be expected due to the tropical forcing. The models have no clue how to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I have a question..when do folks feel good about the long range? Plenty of good signals..but still we look for what could go wrong. Something just doesn't seem right with always looking for negatives. Can we talk about the positives and why we should feel good about things moving forward? Kevin I think people have posted 'good signs' about the extended, but perhaps tempering (pun intended) optimism as they should. The future is inherently uncertain, particular day 4, 5...7, 8...12 or Dec 1. Once you get out there in time, you have to look at positives and negatives evenly, and without prejudice, lest one's opinions are of lower value. Hell, even in nearer terms and now-casting one can get into trouble because of their own bias'. One should not always push/advertise what the want as being most likely. Not that you are, just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 That's to be expected due to the tropical forcing. The models have no clue how to handle it. Indeed. This also shows that today's 12z didn't have to go back cold like yesterday's 12z was. Much more muted in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 They were a bit warmer then 00z. There is definitely some issues with several factors including MJO. People will definitely need to Be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Did they have a -NAO at least? How about -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I have another question. When does the pattern turn wet? We keep hearing ens look stormy and then it ends up being a fropa like Monday with like .25 of rain..and some far Se place ends up with a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 I have another question. When does the pattern turn wet? We keep hearing ens look stormy and then it ends up being a fropa like Monday with like .25 of rain..and some far Se place ends up with a bit more They show potential for the 24th (the same system the OP run shows ejecting from the southern plains)...and there's some cold air around too. But its way too early to tell what will happen. Maybe its a cutter or maybe it goes out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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