November weather dicsussion

[powderfreak]

Actually I used conventional means to come to my conclusion a couple of weeks ago but unless you have a tag PF is snarky about it.

Yeah and you were right...but there's a reason the met consensus was nervous. It wasn't anywhere close to overwhelming like it has been trending towards.

And just like it may not surprise you I'm snarky when I'm skeptical ()... you are a self-proclaimed frigidair so it wasn't hard to see you leaning towards the colder side of things.

[weathafella]

Sorry that's not what I meant Jerry...I'm not sure what the less conventional ways you are talking about includes, but the just was more that it's nice to see a good consensus of model data that shows good things ahead for winter lovers...if that makes sense.

I'm all for squirrels and that stuff, but it's nice having the data back it up.

Squirrels are dead to me. But the ssta in the GOAK in September lives on...lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah and you were right...but there's a reason the met consensus was nervous. It wasn't anywhere close to overwhelming like it has been trending towards.

And just like it may not surprise you I'm snarky when I'm skeptical ()... you are a self-proclaimed frigidair so it wasn't hard to see you leaning towards the colder side of things.

Actually some one else said I was, I like winter, warm summer too. I have called for torches and warm ups when I think they are coming, look back. I actually said, the fifteen days to start the month average out above normal.

[powderfreak]

Actually some one else said I was, I like winter, warm summer too. I have called for torches and warm ups when I think they are coming, look back. I actually said, the fifteen days to start the month average out above normal.

You certainly know more about long range than me, and it's looking more right than wrong, so I shouldn't be one to judge. I just get skeptical in the fall about calls for colder/snowier than normal patterns developing as that's my desired weather, probably insecurities about winter borne out of growing up in the Hudson Valley, lol.

Keep it up Ginxy...bring the cold hammer down on us.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully it's a great winter, but a little early to spike the ball.

[joey2002]

19 degrees here... first teens of the season!

[OKpowdah]

19 degrees here... first teens of the season!

 

Amazingly enough, much of Oklahoma is reaching the same target tonight.

[CoastalWx]

The pattern still could be sort of -PNA for a while as the cold goes west first so you need to keep that in mind. It's a decent pattern, but that is an important factor.

[moneypitmike]

Quite the rain event on the GFS for next week followed with tons of pictures and posts from Stowe in what's likely to be a significant upslope event.  I haven't seen how that's portrayed on other models yet.

 

20.0/12

[HoarfrostHubb]

16.5F here

Brrrrrrrrr

[CapturedNature]

Wintry morning out there.  Currently 16° here, 14° over in Union.  It's nice to have some snow on the ground as well.

[weathafella]

I think the evolution as modeled is pretty nice. Note btw the stab of pretty deep cold for a quick hit next week. It seems that this month, these quick cold shots have strengthened as we get closer vs many of the past few years. Let's hope December is cold and white.

[Damage In Tolland]

HPC nudes it up for us. Winter is almost here

 

THE 13/00Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN IS NOW THE FASTER PIECE OF
GUIDANCE WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...A GOOD 12 HOURS FASTER THAN ITS 12Z RUN. EVEN FASTER THAN
THE 13/00Z GFS. THE 13/00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLE FASTER WITH THE
SURGE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND HAS REALLY
SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF WHICH IS A GOOD THING IF YOU ARE
LOOKING FOR A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IN THE LOWER 48...IE OVER
RUNNING PRECIPITATION ABOVE AN ARCTIC FRONT...A COASTAL WAVE AT
LOWER LATITUDE AND/OR A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. DETAILS OF A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY ONCE THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY CLEARS THE ROCKIES AROUND DAY 4.
 

[moneypitmike]

HPC nudes it up for us. Winter is almost here

 

THE 13/00Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN IS NOW THE FASTER PIECE OF

GUIDANCE WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY...A GOOD 12 HOURS FASTER THAN ITS 12Z RUN. EVEN FASTER THAN

THE 13/00Z GFS. THE 13/00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLE FASTER WITH THE

SURGE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND HAS REALLY

SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF WHICH IS A GOOD THING IF YOU ARE

LOOKING FOR A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IN THE LOWER 48...IE OVER

RUNNING PRECIPITATION ABOVE AN ARCTIC FRONT...A COASTAL WAVE AT

LOWER LATITUDE AND/OR A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO. DETAILS OF A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST

COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY ONCE THE ARCTIC

BOUNDARY CLEARS THE ROCKIES AROUND DAY 4.

 

 

The big question along the east coast is whether any waves can from AFTER the cooler air is ushered in.  So far out, anything can happen though.  So keep the faith.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sneaky backdoor on Saturday really cuts off the mild up at the pass. Mon/Tues are the warmest days then fropa

[CoastalWx]

23.4 here and breezy. Brrr.

[CoastalWx]

HPC nudes it up for us. Winter is almost here

 

THE 13/00Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN IS NOW THE FASTER PIECE OF

GUIDANCE WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY...A GOOD 12 HOURS FASTER THAN ITS 12Z RUN. EVEN FASTER THAN

THE 13/00Z GFS. THE 13/00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLE FASTER WITH THE

SURGE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND HAS REALLY

SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF WHICH IS A GOOD THING IF YOU ARE

LOOKING FOR A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN IN THE LOWER 48...IE OVER

RUNNING PRECIPITATION ABOVE AN ARCTIC FRONT...A COASTAL WAVE AT

LOWER LATITUDE AND/OR A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO. DETAILS OF A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST

COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY ONCE THE ARCTIC

BOUNDARY CLEARS THE ROCKIES AROUND DAY 4.

 

 

Where is the chucking? Denver?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Down to 14.8 in Hubb'town

[weathafella]

Where is the chucking? Denver?

Party in the USA.

[moneypitmike]

Down to 14.8 in Hubb'town

 

Congrats--got to 18.9 at the Pit.

 

Where is the chucking? Denver?

When they say "the lower 48", they are referring to CT, Scott. 

 

I will keep a curious eye on later next week to see if we might luck out with a wave running up the coast with cold air in place.  More likely, just a lot of mild and rain with the PF touchdown dance after  a ton of upslope.  But we'll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

Where is the chucking? Denver?

The whole country

[CoastalWx]

The whole country

The party is out west for a while. It will try to ooze east near T-Day, but. It may be a bit of a - PNA too. Still an overall decent look.

[NJwinter23]

Actually I used conventional means to come to my conclusion a couple of weeks ago but unless you have a tag PF is snarky about it.

 

Well, I dont necessarily share all of my thoughts here, but I've been open to the idea of a cold end of month/start to dec for a while (and that is not a lock yet). I was aggressive with the warmth centered around mid-Novy here due to AO signal entering month, and thought that would highlight an above normal month. While it is getting very warm at times in this up and down pattern, the cold shots have more than held their own in keeping the novy map much closer to normal/cooler than i expcted through this point...I'm talking from a national point of view here by the way, and not just New England-centric

 

You've done a good job this month so far from what I have read.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Down to 14.8 in Hubb'town

 

 

Congrats--got to 18.9 at the Pit.

 

 

18.5F  was the low here.  Kind of surprising since I was down to 22F at 10pm.  Light breeze this morning must have kept us from bottoming out.

[moneypitmike]

18.5F  was the low here.  Kind of surprising since I was down to 22F at 10pm.  Light breeze this morning must have kept us from bottoming out.

 

Winds kept up all night here, recording 15mph at 3:00a.m.

 

21.7/12

[ORH_wxman]

Hopefully it's a great winter, but a little early to spike the ball.

 

 

The warmth post-11/15 is definitely going to verify like has been progged for seemingly weeks. The pre-11/15 cold shot was more prolific than advertised originally....but the Thanksgiving day week stuff still has a long ways to go. Ensembles backed off slightly last night which isn't surprising given the time frame.

 

I definitely envision the plains getting it first and it could be more up and down here before it finally settles in better. Its a bit of a cliche these days in meteorology, but its true often enough....the models will tend to rush regime changes in the long range moreso than the other way around.

[toronto blizzard]

But they still have a beautiful - EPO ridge

[CoastalWx]

But they still have a beautiful - EPO ridge

It's a little west of optimum position which is why it's sort of -PNA-like. It's fine, like Will said it's goin to change a bit when you are so far out, but patience will be needed.

[Ginx snewx]

Well, I dont necessarily share all of my thoughts here, but I've been open to the idea of a cold end of month/start to dec for a while (and that is not a lock yet). I was aggressive with the warmth centered around mid-Novy here due to AO signal entering month, and thought that would highlight an above normal month. While it is getting very warm at times in this up and down pattern, the cold shots have more than held their own in keeping the novy map much closer to normal/cooler than i expcted through this point...I'm talking from a national point of view here by the way, and not just New England-centric

 

You've done a good job this month so far from what I have read.

well its easy for me to go for it I have no reputation to uphold and I can dabble in the controversial without worry but thanks. Instead of doing a whole winter LR forecast this year I decided to break it up in 6 week pieces using a combo of conventional and not so conventional methods. This is what I put out there Oct 17th 

 

These forecasts are only for fun and experimental, don't kill me if I bust horribly. also these roughly represent my back yard with some region wide stuff thrown in

 

WEEK 1

Ending 11/1/13

Much below normal for the week with temperatures -3 to-5 BN region wide, potential for minor precip events with possible Mtn, elevated snow, upslope snow and LES

 

WEEK 2

Ending 11/8/13

A continuation of somewhat below normal temps -1 to-3 region wide with the potential for a cutter and a widespread rain event, possible redeveloping as a Miller B allowing for far interior snow

 

 

WEEK 3

Ending 11/15/13

a return to a colder regime with temps -3-5 below normal, a potential  wet event prior to the cold outbreak, this again could be a cutter with possible a follow up coastal bringing a more region wide elevated snow to the Berks , Greens, Whites

 

Week 4

Ending 11/22/13

A change to a warmer week with region wide warmth, pretty dry with warm frontal showers Temps +3 to +7

 

 

Week 5

Ending 11/29/13

A massive shift in temps with some very cold air finishing out the month, possible heavy snow almost to the coast with interior areas getting the most. Temps -4 to -6

 

Week 6

Ending 12/6/13

Possible record cold with a region wide blanket of snow, maybe heavy , Miller B type with a clipper thrown in. temps- 5 to -7

 

[toronto blizzard]

It's a little west of optimum position which is why it's sort of -PNA-like. It's fine, like Will said it's goin to change a bit when you are so far out, but patience will be needed.

Yeah the 12z run could go cold again