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Wonderdog

Mid November Pretend Snowstorm

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Euro caved to the gfs on the important features. At least the really cold dry air is still locked in.

For all the gfs hate, I still think it's a heavy hitter and a reliable model. I never outright dismiss it. Euro is better, but I can never get fully excited about an event unless I see it on board (with the exception being if it's out in looney land on its own).

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For all the gfs hate, I still think it's a heavy hitter and a reliable model. I never outright dismiss it. Euro is better, but I can never get fully excited about an event unless I see it on board (with the exception being if it's out in looney land on its own).

With all it's upgrades i am curious to see how it does against the Euro this winter.

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Are we still taking this seriously?

 

I don't think anyone was at any point....we've been pretty well educated in abject failure...

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For all the gfs hate, I still think it's a heavy hitter and a reliable model. I never outright dismiss it. Euro is better, but I can never get fully excited about an event unless I see it on board (with the exception being if it's out in looney land on its own).

 

I love the GFS. The euro is better at big synoptic events. Especially the long trackers. But it's not that much better than the gfs. And it busts plenty if you want to put all your eggs on it. 

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I don't think anyone was at any point....we've been pretty well educated in abject failure...

 

I think a big takeway here is understanding how unusual setups can product unexpected results. We're smack dab in the middle of a craptastic +AO/-pna pattern with no blocking but an arctic airmass is about to invade and as it looks right now a near miss on enough ingredients to snow. 

 

You and i have gone back and forth a bit along with USAFwx on the power of the epo/wpo for the EC during a period that looks statistically terrible on paper. 

 

I've been encouraged for months with the pac. It's possible that instead of a long duration unfavorable period that fights "good hl patterns" we can have the opposite happen. 

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As unlikely as it seems, I don't see how one could completely dismiss the Euro. It's performance record speaks for itself. 24 hours before Sandy the GFS still had it backing into Cape Cod. We will likely need at least a few more model cycles until this is all sorted out.

 

Because the Euro was more right on Sandy early on isn't really valid reasoning to put faith in it's outlier solution in this case.  The GFS has spanked the Euro on certain occasions as well.  If it's solution seemed more plausible based on known performance of all the models, climatology, season, etc., then maybe, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

 

Seeing all the global models/ensembles in the same ballpark except for the Euro, I'd bet it'd come around to the more progressive solution as all the others are showing.  Today's 12Z has made a move in that direction.  I can't see why it still holds back the base of the trough and cuts it off...haven't investigated much though. 

 

It goes without saying that more model cycles will sort things out, doesn't it always?  ;)

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This "euro is king" stuff is kinda silly.  Yes the euro is better at handling synoptic events but look at the verification scores...its marginally so in the grand scheme of things and none of the models are particularly accurate at predicting the track and amplitude of storms in the 6-10 day range anyways.  Add on to that the fact that all of the models had a storm on a run or two and also did not on other runs and none were locked into a particular solution.  Fact is with all the models having issues with details in the medium and long range, unless there is strong consensus from the globals and the ensembles...its usually unlikely we get a storm anyways.  Even when all the data is in agreement its still a crap shoot.  Some are getting way way way too upset though about a lost opportunity in mid November.  What will the melt down look like if we get a storm that looks good on all the models from 10 days out consistently then goes poof 72 hours away in Febraury???

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This "euro is king" stuff is kinda silly.  Yes the euro is better at handling synoptic events but look at the verification scores...its marginally so in the grand scheme of things and none of the models are particularly accurate at predicting the track and amplitude of storms in the 6-10 day range anyways.  Add on to that the fact that all of the models had a storm on a run or two and also did not on other runs and none were locked into a particular solution.  Fact is with all the models having issues with details in the medium and long range, unless there is strong consensus from the globals and the ensembles...its usually unlikely we get a storm anyways.  Even when all the data is in agreement its still a crap shoot.  Some are getting way way way too upset though about a lost opportunity in mid November.  What will the melt down look like if we get a storm that looks good on all the models from 10 days out consistently then goes poof 72 hours away in Febraury???

 

...Pretty much the same as it always does...  

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I think a big takeway here is understanding how unusual setups can product unexpected results. We're smack dab in the middle of a craptastic +AO/-pna pattern with no blocking but an arctic airmass is about to invade and as it looks right now a near miss on enough ingredients to snow. 

 

You and i have gone back and forth a bit along with USAFwx on the power of the epo/wpo for the EC during a period that looks statistically terrible on paper. 

 

I've been encouraged for months with the pac. It's possible that instead of a long duration unfavorable period that fights "good hl patterns" we can have the opposite happen. 

Yeah...this has what's really been surprising for the October 25-November 15 period.  The -EPO ridge will NOT be denied.  Every other index is garbage and it is still running the show.  We're going to pop this really transient PNA ridge for a few days next week and that's enough to send a notable arctic or modified arctic airmass all the way to the Gulf Coast.  With a +3-4SD AO, NAO near neutral at best, etc...  Really impressive.  This period next week reminds me of the map you posted of 1960 or 1961 that had a big -EPO ridge that linked up with a PNA ridge as well.  Put the eastern US below normal even with otherwise poor indices.  

 

GFS ensemble mean holds onto the -EPO ridge at some level all the way through Day 15 as well.  

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Monumental win for America

 

Makes all those that showed the Euro and posted snow maps that they made based on it look pretty foolish.  It was always and outlier.   Some runs still could jump back west so it's not a completely done deal but It's hard to see a solution like the earlier Euro verifying now that it has jumped ship. 

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Im not exactly giving up yet. The fact that all the models at some point showed a large snowstorm shows that if still has potential. Some of our snowstorms vanished on all the models at this time range in the past. I dont have my hopes up, and its a long shot, but theres still a chance I'd say. 

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I'd say conversational flakes for many/most with light accumulations at elevation/colder spots is still very much on the table with the frontal passage.  

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This "euro is king" stuff is kinda silly.  Yes the euro is better at handling synoptic events but look at the verification scores...its marginally so in the grand scheme of things and none of the models are particularly accurate at predicting the track and amplitude of storms in the 6-10 day range anyways.  Add on to that the fact that all of the models had a storm on a run or two and also did not on other runs and none were locked into a particular solution.  Fact is with all the models having issues with details in the medium and long range, unless there is strong consensus from the globals and the ensembles...its usually unlikely we get a storm anyways.  Even when all the data is in agreement its still a crap shoot.  Some are getting way way way too upset though about a lost opportunity in mid November.  What will the melt down look like if we get a storm that looks good on all the models from 10 days out consistently then goes poof 72 hours away in Febraury???

I'm not seeing much of a meltdown from many with this one.

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Yeah...this has what's really been surprising for the October 25-November 15 period.  The -EPO ridge will NOT be denied.  Every other index is garbage and it is still running the show.  We're going to pop this really transient PNA ridge for a few days next week and that's enough to send a notable arctic or modified arctic airmass all the way to the Gulf Coast.  With a +3-4SD AO, NAO near neutral at best, etc...  Really impressive.  This period next week reminds me of the map you posted of 1960 or 1961 that had a big -EPO ridge that linked up with a PNA ridge as well.  Put the eastern US below normal even with otherwise poor indices.  

 

GFS ensemble mean holds onto the -EPO ridge at some level all the way through Day 15 as well.  

 

It's possible that the epo region could drive the early met winter period moreso than other factors. There's plenty of history to go off of there. Not exactly a "how you want to do it" but I can totally deal with some sort of op simply because cold temps are nearby or overhead. 

 

Comparing the pac over the last 15 days to the first 15 days of Dec 88 has some striking similarities. 

 

 

It's probably going to look even closer if the 15 day period covers next week with the transient pna ridge. 

 

The big +AO looks to wane through mid month too. It's hard to say what happens as we enter Dec. A favorable pac along with a neutral or even -ao period would really look tasty. I read a bunch around the forums about a likely +ao and warm december. It's possible of course but there are enough early signs to throw some doubt out there. 

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I should say the GEFS keep the ridge around in the North Pacific but retrograde it a bit in the long range and put a trough off the West Coast for a bit.  But, the models have been advertising that for awhile...they keep wanting to torch us at some point, but "some point" keeps being 10 days away.  And that signal is becoming ever more transient and muted.  

 

I'm encouraged that our source region (Canada) is staying cold enough to supply this kind of cold air mass we'll see next week. 

 

I don't really do this long-range stuff, but I can see why the signals for December are rather murky.  It seemed like a AOA normal November was a lock the last week of October.  We're almost certainly going to have a below normal first half of the month right now.  If the AO does break down near and after mid-month and the Pacific stays generally favorable, we could be looking good headed into the beginning of December.  Two big "if"s, but neither of which is hard to fathom given the last 10 days and next 5-7 days.  

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While the MJO progression going on, Aleutian High etc. are all notorious factors here, the one thing missing is the NAO. The MJO progression has similarities to 2009, 2002, 2000, 1993, 1990, 1987, 1986, 1985 at the moment and many of these had November systems (near-coastals or coastals). In the case of 1987, the MJO was classic but so was the split stream / el nino pattern. There was also a classic retrograding -NAO anomaly with 50-50 low which forced the northern stream to dig down and phase with the southern stream s/w.

 

 

In this case, we have a very strong, but quick-hitting, ridge out West that forces PV-deformation between the departing SE Canadian Low and the system that may or may not bring a coastal storm. Between typical D.A. issues and complexity of this flow, I wouldn't count on anything without the NAO.

 

 

should have listened to HM yesterday

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Im not exactly giving up yet. The fact that all the models at some point showed a large snowstorm shows that if still has potential. Some of our snowstorms vanished on all the models at this time range in the past. I dont have my hopes up, and its a long shot, but theres still a chance I'd say. 

Yeah, now that the EURO has abandoned the idea of an event next week, I'm waiting for the GFS to start to show something.

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I'm actually proud of the forum.  Most, even Ji, kept their expectations low. 

Ji is all legit now thanks to Facebook. It sucks. We need a new Ji. 

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Ji is all legit now thanks to Facebook. It sucks. We need a new Ji. 

You're right, he now actually wants to have some credibility for his page which probably is good but is less fun.  I'm sure someone else will step and replace him.  The guys to the south have Brick.  JI has matured though he'll probably still troll me later this winter.

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