Tropopause_Fold Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 snow in tolland oh. no. lol. back on topic: cold night tonight - MOS has most spots in the upper 20s and lower 30s in E areas with NW winds staying up for most of the night. so not just a rad cooling night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 you totally lost me on this one, who was talking about Sandy? No one is talking about it, but it's clear people are using the Sandy op run example as a reason why it's superior to all models and why it will happen. Read around. Of course it's 7 days out and anything can happen, but no reason to fall in love with one model so far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 No one is talking about it, but it's clear people are using the Sandy op run example as a reason why it's superior to all models and why it will happen. Read around. Of course it's 7 days out and anything can happen, but no reason to fall in love with one model so far out in time. I know TWC was showing (last night) Euro vs GFS and calling the Euro superior, but giving themselves outs and explaining about the ensembles vs op No mention of Sandy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Recorded a T today, the last of it just vanished from protected, shady areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I know TWC was showing (last night) Euro vs GFS and calling the Euro superior, but giving themselves outs and explaining about the ensembles vs op No mention of Sandy though I guess I look at it from a realistic P.O.V. I don't like how the op runs are treated as gospel 7+ days out...esp the euro. The euro is dam good and inside 3 days...it can't be beat. But 7 days out is anyone's guess most of the time. Oh well....media being media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Personally im just waiting for Phil to say wether he's buying a "ticket" circa sunday nite/monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Personally im just waiting for Phil to say wether he's buying a "ticket" circa sunday nite/monday Cpick... your Greens are trying to do their thing or at least keep a wintery feel out there. Nice light upslope snow has been falling at the house this morning...real deal cold, big flakes swirling around. Might not be as magical as GC in Mass, but this micro-climate puts flakes in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 One of the big issues we can't get past next week is the +NAO pumping up heights over the southeast. That just enhances the mass gradient (that's already there with the strong baroclinicity). The s/w energy in question is running into 250mb heights around 1056dm with WSW winds >150kts. Pretty hard to compress and amplify against. So you have this PV filament (string of shear of vorticity) that we want to consolidate into curvature vorticity, but 150kt WSW winds are constantly shooting any tiny PV maxima that develop eastward. So we're just left with that PV filament pushing SE while being stretched off to the NE and no potential for amplification of any sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 One of the big issues we can't get past next week is the +NAO pumping up heights over the southeast. That just enhances the mass gradient (that's already there with the strong baroclinicity). The s/w energy in question is running into 250mb heights around 1056dm with WSW winds >150kts. Pretty hard to compress and amplify against. So you have this PV filament (string of shear of vorticity) that we want to consolidate into curvature vorticity, but 150kt WSW winds are constantly shooting any tiny PV maxima that develop eastward. So we're just left with that PV filament pushing SE while being stretched off to the NE and no potential for amplification of any sort. Unless you buy the euro op run...lol. But yeah, that's not helping either. It really is a thread the needle event to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we've seen the euro do this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Unless you buy the euro op run...lol. But yeah, that's not helping either. It really is a thread the needle event to get something. I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Unless you buy the euro op run...lol. But yeah, that's not helping either. It really is a thread the needle event to get something. lol I mean, once you get enough of a consolidated PV max, the whole baroclinic positive feedback process kicks in ... surface circulation, and warm advection helping form ridging downstream, upstream of the Quebec shortwave. And so on. And in this case, with such a strong baroclinic zone, the timescale for this is super short. But we first need to get past that "critical amplitude" ..all or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. lol I mean, once you get enough of a consolidated PV max, the whole baroclinic positive feedback process kicks in ... surface circulation, and warm advection helping form ridging downstream, upstream of the Quebec shortwave. And so on. And in this case, with such a strong baroclinic zone, the timescale for this is super short. But we first need to get past that "critical amplitude" ..all or nothing Don't tell the NYC crowd, a few are already plotting to kidnap me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. The arctic front probably offers the best chance for a burst of SN...even a hint of a wave along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Don't tell the NYC crowd, a few are already plotting to kidnap me. we'll keep you safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't really get what the excitement is about. Pattern doesn't support this, ensembles don't support this, the models that have had it have had absolutely no run-to-run consistency. Has fail written all over it. I'm more interested in the arctic fropa on Tuesday. I am guessing a similar media blitz happens each year when the very first "threat" makes a desperate attempt at dropping an inch anywhere in the megalopolis... Talk more about Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we'll keep you safe Those DT maps are telling. It tries to get going, but just too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Camera crews are already set up at Home Despots in the region ready to film people buying shovels and salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Camera crews are already set up at Home Despots in the region ready to film people buying shovels and salt Reminds me I need to grab a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we'll keep you safejust keep them waves breaking, cowabunga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sammy will love this, surfs up http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F102/dtpres/npac/dtpres_npac_dprog.html Timing the rest of the pattern against that wavebreak is crucial. The position of that massive ridge doesn't change, nor the amplitude or timing the break. It's what the break is acting on. Crashing against rocks or sand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Timing the rest of the pattern against that wavebreak is crucial. The position of that massive ridge doesn't change, nor the amplitude or timing the break. It's what the break is acting on. Crashing against rocks or sand What do you think this will do to the pattern in the longer range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Graupel shower here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Camera crews are already set up at Home Despots in the region ready to film people buying shovels and salt Most people say their wife is the home despot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Obviously this has been covered ...but, this run will ...or perhaps more so the 00z run this evening, will be telling. The Euro has that known bias of over-digging troughs beyond D5, particularly between D's 6 and 10 is when it exercises that bias, but it does at times (though with less frequency) do so around D5. Last night's exotic run was suspiciously over-dug in the western Ohio Valley going from D4 to D5; and then of course, once the deed is done it has/had to be conserved along the EC. The question is, does that digging survive another run? This next run crosses even more inside that critical temporal boundary of D5. My hunch is no ... or perhaps it starts backing off. Lord I have been wrong before, but ... I am not finding other guidance sources that support that sort of solution from D4.5 onward. The Euro is virtually alone. 12 members of the GFS ensembles and only two solutions gave any vague semblance of the Euro's severing the bottom of the trough like that. And though I don't get to look at the individual Euro ensemble members, I did see the smoothed mean and it only suggests one or two members might be tugging the mean in the operational's favor. This Euro run is, at this time, an extreme outlier that has the appearance of having delivered us another one of it's dig-lusty fantasies. Wonders never cease. We'll just have to see. The 12z GFS continues to not offer much support, as is, however, it did actually trend ever so slightly deeper in the TV. Thing is, unless a wave in the flow has a very deep vertical integration, it is very difficult to get them to turn around dial like that. The Euro's mechanics are weird looking, taking a positive tilted wave that is pressing S into a modest +SD height field, yet it finds the wherewithal to pull that off. Can't see the other sigma levels; maybe it has a powerful U/A wave component to that whole mess. NCEP noted yesterday (Fracasso) that they didn't want to comment to far on the event as they were concerned about sampling deficits. I don't see that a lot could have changed as far as that goes. However, the canvas is an intriguing one in that the air mass in the 850 to sfc thickness is somewhere's around -1.5 to -2SD, and that is going to kiss the west Atlantic. It's a volatile set up when that happens, either way... Having said all that, there is actually a very weak Archembault signal for the D4-6 time range. Both the CDC and CPC show that a sneaky upward spike in the PNA has evolved in the means over the last couple of nights. It's not impressively large, no, but it is there nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 so OKX just tweeted this out Conditions are leading to a greater risk of brush fire spread today Hmm, .58 in the bucket yesterday, heavy frost this morning, a rain shower this morning, fully clouded over 45 degrees 54% humidity, am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 People should remember the date. It's still early and climo max for sne is 50+. While this incoming cold will be impressive, the best chance for snow is not from a big coastal for most of sne this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 People should remember the date. It's still early and climo max for sne is 50+. While this incoming cold will be impressive, the best chance for snow is not from a big coastal for most of sne this early. thing is no one in this forum forgets the date and understands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 so OKX just tweeted this out Conditions are leading to a greater risk of brush fire spread today Hmm, .58 in the bucket yesterday, heavy frost this morning, a rain shower this morning, fully clouded over 45 degrees 54% humidity, am I missing something? you got alot more than we did out west...most of OKX's area saw less than .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 thing is no one in this forum forgets the date and understands How the fuk do you know that? Seriously people have been talking synoptics like it's mid winter. It's not. Flurries are a win this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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