Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 HRRR coming back north and really an impressive band along hwy 20 in IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Thanks! Oh yeah...plenty cold ground. Surface temp now 31, and lots of "insulation" between the grass and the 48+ degree 4" soil temp. You must be kind of high up. Elevation? --- Looks like the HRRR is handling the SD returns better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 It's actually an older Toshiba security camera a couple forecasters and I came across when I was down at the NWS office in Blacksburg, VA. I think it's the IK-WBO11A model, and it's been one heck of a camera. Had it outside for its entire life the past 10 years with no problems whatsoever. Does some great night/low-light shots and it completely internet-controllable. Check it out here (really snowing hard as I type this): http://97.83.48.133:9000/user_view_S.htm Nice. Just looked more into the webcam thing, and need to figure out how I should go about setting it all up regarding software/FTP, etc. Would love to have a setup like yours at some point in the future. Plan on buying a new house next summer, so may just wait until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 HRRR coming back north and really an impressive band along hwy 20 in IA. Dubuque cannot be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Dubuque cannot be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 ltg2_t2sfc_f15.png Thundersnow in Oct would be very cool. For the QCA I'm less concerned about the track of the system now, as I feel we're pretty well locked in for a decent amount of precip. The big question will be just how favorable will the thermo profiles actually be come tomorrow. I had been pretty confident in a decent amount of snow falling, with the main question being how much would actually stick. The 00z models muddy the waters a bit regarding how much snow will actually fall, let alone accumulate. Just makes for a very difficult forecast. No matter how it shakes out it's been a fun little system to forecast, and for so early in the year it only makes me look forward to what's to come later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Thundersnow in Oct would be very cool. For the QCA I'm less concerned about the track of the system now, as I feel we're pretty well locked in for a decent amount of precip. The big question will be just how favorable will the thermo profiles actually be come tomorrow. I had been pretty confident in a decent amount of snow falling, with the main question being how much would actually stick. The 00z models muddy the waters a bit regarding how much snow will actually fall, let alone accumulate. Just makes for a very difficult forecast. No matter how it shakes out it's been a fun little system to forecast, and for so early in the year it only makes me look forward to what's to come later in the season. It's funny seeing both the HRRR and RAP now come back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 It's funny seeing both the HRRR and RAP now come back north Maybe they got a clue about what's actually happening on the ground. That below, has I-88 to near my location written all over it. Would be a super bonus to have thunder snow this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 What? You don't like the resemblance to TWC's short term blue rain radar experiment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 3z run holding pretty stready. Maybe a sliver south. RAP definitely isn't south on the 4z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 RAP finally came south. Overall, looks like the GFS starts out 1-0 in the pre-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I'm thoroughly impressed with the lake effect set-up for all the reasons Gino listed in his AFD. The 00z NAM has a 950-900 mb convergence and omega bullseye right over Porter and LaPorte at 9z and 12z Weds. Some of our local WRFs are a hair east, more LaPorte and Berrien, but similar idea. Certainly climo/lake still near 60 deg gives pause and accums are less likely near the lake for that reason, but crazy things can happen when there's extreme lake induced instability. Like 10/12/06 in Buffalo with a lake temp of 62: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Not saying those incredible amounts will occur but several inches certainly not out of the question away from the immediate lakefront. Biggest question is where the band will set up but night and early morning timing is also favorable for accumulation potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 light snow and ice accums overnight but hasn't covered the ground like in Gaylord.... temp has remained 34 most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I'm thoroughly impressed with the lake effect set-up for all the reasons Gino listed in his AFD. The 00z NAM has a 950-900 mb convergence and omega bullseye right over Porter and LaPorte at 9z and 12z Weds. Some of our local WRFs are a hair east, more LaPorte and Berrien, but similar idea. Certainly climo/lake still near 60 deg gives pause and accums are less likely near the lake for that reason, but crazy things can happen when there's extreme lake induced instability. Like 10/12/06 in Buffalo with a lake temp of 62: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Not saying those incredible amounts will occur but several inches certainly not out of the question away from the immediate lakefront. Biggest question is where the band will set up but night and early morning timing is also favorable for accumulation potential. It also looks like a small window for some spouts to form. This will be an interesting event for Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Had a nice burst of snow for about 20 minutes earlier, with a nice coating now covering things. Measured just shy of a half inch. Webcam view from the house: Nice amount of snow in your picture as of now 8:25AM, some nice dendrites falling as well. It looks to be sticking well to the grass/trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Nice amount of snow in your picture as of now 8:25AM, some nice dendrites falling as well. It looks to be sticking well to the grass/trees. Not doing too bad. Measured 1.2" this morning. Have seen some pics of what looks like 3-4" just north of here up toward Onaway. Love this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Getting a solid light snow here with a temp around 34. The CR airport is reporting light rain and 35. Radar shows the best band of snow north of CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Nice report Hawkeye! Looks like DBQ is getting some snow at 32°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 So far the system appears to be a snow underperformer. There are still only a few reports of a half inch or less in Iowa. I also picked up about a quarter inch. The accumulating snow band is pretty narrow, although cyclone may get a burst of heavy snow shortly. CR is out of the band now with only a few flurries falling while the little bit of snow begins to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 not at all surprising...accumulating snow in October is difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 not at all surprising...accumulating snow in October is difficult You need this kind of cold, but with a bigger storm system that can produce its own cold pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Half a mile visibility and 33F at DVN in the snow. Probably won't last more than an hour or so before tapering so we'll see if any sticks there...not terrible for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Half a mile visibility and 33F at DVN in the snow. Probably won't last more than an hour or so before tapering so we'll see if any sticks there...not terrible for October. I'd have to imagine the Quad Cities and just north should see some accumulation with such heavy rates and temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Half a mile visibility and 33F at DVN in the snow. Probably won't last more than an hour or so before tapering so we'll see if any sticks there...not terrible for October. A whole lot better than the last 2 Autumns! DVN calling for 1-3". Still snowing in Dubuque - shield of snow approaching RFD. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1038 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013IAZ052-053-065-066-068-ILZ009-015-016-221830-LINN-JONES-CEDAR-CLINTON-SCOTT-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...TIPTON...CLINTON...BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE1038 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AFFECTING THE AREA...A SHARP TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS FOUND OVER THEREGION...WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW JUST NORTH. THE HEAVY SNOW AXISIS FOUND FROM SOUTHEAST LINN COUNTY THROUGH THE THE QUAD CITIESAS OF 1030 AM. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS LINE CANEXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ONGRASS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. PARKED CARS...DECKS...TABLES AND OTHERELEVATED SURFACES WILL ALSO COLLECT THIS SNOW. WHILE ROADS WILLREMAIN WET OR SLUSH COVERED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND...LOWVISIBILITIES IN SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THOSE TRAVELING THROUGHTHIS HEAVY SNOW BAND. Nice little comma shaped system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Snow is falling in Oswego/Yorkville via two friends of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 A whole lot better than the last 2 Autumns! DVN calling for 1-3". Still snowing in Dubuque - shield of snow approaching RFD. Nice little comma shaped system. Sounds about right, going on about 2 hours of heavy radar returns, probably half inch per hour rates; if it was more favorable timing, would be 1-2" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boiler1111 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Seeing a few tiny flakes falling in Aurora now... Snow is falling in Oswego/Yorkville via two friends of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Looks like snow is about to move into Freeport. Solid cloud deck over head here now. Dewpoints are plenty cold enough out ahead of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I hope you get some snow Geos... you have been such a great updater for this event you deserve the returns!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Flurries in Bartlett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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