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December 21-22 inverted trough/retro precip midweek threat


MaineJayhawk

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NAM was passing the bottle with Pickles last night. I'd love for that to verify, of course, but it has no support. I would dearly love something in the 12z suite (preferably the Doc) to say, "you know, that NAM is right. Let's drop a QPF nuclear device on New England".

I just don't see that happening. But it would be totally awesome if it scores the coup.

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Looks like a classic inv trof set up. The GGEM has hinted at this possibility on previous runs. NAM looks way overdone, as usual. The ETA solutions look more realistic. But, the NAM set up has happened before!

09z SREF not as ridiculous as the NAM, but it does bring several inches to eastern areas:

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I like how even the sref's bring 1-3 to eastern CT

I was surprised how good the 00z Euro was for this midweek threat. It had borderline warning criteria for eastern areas and advisory back to the valley at least. Hopefully the trend continues. I'm still skeptical on anything more than an inch or two until we get closer, but at least we can probably set ourselves up for a white christmas.

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