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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?


CT Rain

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Impressice -EPO setting up for next week thanks to TC response. In return it "may" set up an interesting setup for at least NNE. The TCs in these images noted by the low level cyclonic vorticity contoured in black...you can see how it pushes up a huge ridge over the NE Pacific in response the Aleutian low that is reinforced by the extra-tropical transitioning of both TCs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So here we are next week. Notice the ridge pushing into western Canada and a PV love diving SSE past HUdson Bay. Now notice the cutoff low over the Rockies. As this moves east, it will have to be watched for the "potential" for some wintry wx perhaps at least in NNE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Impressice -EPO setting up for next week thanks to TC response. In return it "may" set up an interesting setup for at least NNE. The TCs in these images noted by the low level cyclonic vorticity contoured in black...you can see how it pushes up a huge ridge over the NE Pacific in response the Aleutian low that is reinforced by the extra-tropical transitioning of both TCs.

 

 

So here we are next week. Notice the ridge pushing into western Canada and a PV love diving SSE past HUdson Bay. Now notice the cutoff low over the Rockies. As this moves east, it will have to be watched for the "potential" for some wintry wx perhaps at least in NNE.

 

 

 

 

The euro ens at day 10 h5 anomaly looks like it would send down another shot of cold air for the first week of november. Looks interesting in terms of keeping the east below normal. You have split flowish in the west, with a cutoff in the sw and ridging in the pacific northwest into canada. You have an erroding -epo and a north atlantic ridge which is bottling some chilly air in the eastern third of the US. Only scary thing is there is a pv lobe that is rotating slowly down towards alaska, while another is parked over greenland.

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Yeah that was a pretty cold run.  I liked that one...develops a nice gradient too which gives us some storms and precip.

It's all about how amplified that GL low becomes.. if it wraps up and rides to the border we will be very mild. GFS kept it south and rid it overhead. Low approaching from west over Chicago heading NE and a building bermuda high we'll have a nice mild southerly breeze

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Looks like a lot of uncertainty beyond D6-7 on most guidance...Euro ensembles do support the cutter scenario to a certain extent for the first couple days of November....but then try and cool us down again. they try and build the Aleutian ridge a little bit, but its not very confident looking on the ensembles.

 

We'll just have to wait and see what happens. It looks like the GEFS agree on the Aleutian ridge part late in their run. Big +NAO so it causes a gradient over the northeast into SE Canada.

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Snowed and accumulated down to 1,000ft last night (I put a couple photos/web cams in the NNE thread)... MVL reported no precip type but 0.01" fell in the can with a shower passing by with temps in the 36-38F range which was likely flurries or graupel (judging by other obs in the area and dry surface air, mid/upper 30s brought flakes to the surface). MPV put up its first -SN obs of the season at 36F around 2am.

Nice to see something more in line with what late October should be (it's more normal for snow this time of year than +7 departures, lol)...as BTV said yesterday, it's overdue.

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39.2 here. That's the low, but a bit of a breeze here on President's Hill in Weymouth. Heat on FTL.

Hey Scott as you and PF were talking about earlier this week how Atlanta could be colder than up in parts of the NE for a morning or two. Well here in the mountains of WNC we had a low of 22 degrees with the NWS calling for some snow coming in tonight. Crazy how things work out sometimes from North but yall always hammer use on snow totals up here.

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Looks like a lot of uncertainty beyond D6-7 on most guidance...Euro ensembles do support the cutter scenario to a certain extent for the first couple days of November....but then try and cool us down again. they try and build the Aleutian ridge a little bit, but its not very confident looking on the ensembles.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens. It looks like the GEFS agree on the Aleutian ridge part late in their run. Big +NAO so it causes a gradient over the northeast into SE Canada.

Dec 2007 esque
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