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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

i've always thought that the ec product there is just the op 5h pattern averaged out. 

 

 

It is (it is the D7-10 avg 5H pattern of the OP run)...but the ensemble mean does support that look anyway....maybe a couple days delayed vs the OP run though.

 

I do think some NNE elevations have a great shot at some sort of snowfall or flakes anyway in that setup...it remains to be seen whether it can be amplified enough to give interior spots further south a shot at first flakes.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Euro op and ensembles are really impressive around day 9-10. This is something that if later in the year would be very interesting for New England. 

 

That ensemble mean... that's a thing of beauty.

 

attachicon.giff216.gif

 

attachicon.giftest8.gif

Yeah we're really going to have to watch that period. I remember that's kind of how the Oct 2011 storm started. Subtle hints of it started showing up on ensembles/models..and none of us wanted to believe it.Even 3-4 days out I recall many just not believing it. Of course this won't be the same..but the chances are certainly going up a bit for some sort of wintry event for the northeast centered around Halloween

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Euro op and ensembles are really impressive around day 9-10. This is something that if later in the year would be very interesting for New England. 

 

That ensemble mean... that's a thing of beauty.

 

 

 

Keep in mind folks, the operational Euro and to some lesser extent, it's ensembles, tend to over amplify troughs between D7 and D10.  

 

Having said that ... I'm sort of on the fence here.  The period of amplitude has much more than just a cycle or two of appeal. It's also flagged by a rising PNA, a nadir in the NAO... and, recent MJO prognosis based off the GFS ensembles have it emerging from incoherence roughly Phase 7/8, which may add...   To mention, Wipha.   These all combined certainly lend to amplitude.  

 

I'm thinking these may drill the extended Euro into a correct idea this go.   But how much?      

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

no worries. i just thought you were referring to the bottom chart as the ec ens mean for days 7-10 (which is a mistake other folks have made before) and knowing who you are, it got me thinking that maybe it *was* actually the ens mean. :lol:

 

OH I see how it definitely reads that way. Oops :lol:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There's definitely some heavy hitters on the CPC analogs for the GEFS in terms of October cold. Its too early to see if we get that type of magnitude, but the solid agreement between the different ensembles suites (Euro/GEFS/GGEM) does increase confidence in at least a pretty decent cooldown...whether its more than that we'll just have to wait.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I'm becoming more confident for some decent cold shots, especially after early next week...say around the 24th/25th. I think that's our first legit chance at snowmaking at the ski resort and it's time to start planning for it.

 

 

You'll probably get an actual snowfall in this pattern up on the mountain...whether its upslope snowshowers or something more significant/synoptic.

 

Don't want to speculate too hard given we are still 8-10 days out at minimum, but knowing the type of pattern that is likely and given that the mountains up there don't need a synoptic storm to see snow, I'd be pretty confident in some type of minor event there in the Oct 24-31 timeframe.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Here's my belly-to-belly list for BOS...

The criteria: below average temperatures (based on 1981-2010 normals) November through March and total snowfall 40+ inches (snow data can be spotty in BOS's record).

Season   Departure  Snow
------------------------
1947-48     -3.8    89.2
1903-04     -6.2    72.9
1906-07     -4.2    67.9
2002-03     -2.9    67.7
1892-93     -5.2    66.0
1922-23     -3.9    64.9
1964-65     -2.6    50.4
1894-95     -4.0    46.9
1917-18     -6.1    45.7
1942-43     -2.8    45.7
1904-03     -5.8    44.9
I'm missing some good snow seasons based on my crude criteria which is heavily weighted towards persistent cold vs. snow and of course does not take into consideration long stretches of bare ground or lack of storms. One would need to come up some formula for snow depth days + snowfall + temperatures (extremes and mean departures) to fairly rank the seasons.
The snow depth days Web Site has what is called a persistence quotient which reflects your thoughts http://wermenh.com/sdd/
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

You'll probably get an actual snowfall in this pattern up on the mountain...whether its upslope snowshowers or something more significant/synoptic.

 

Don't want to speculate too hard given we are still 8-10 days out at minimum, but knowing the type of pattern that is likely and given that the mountains up there don't need a synoptic storm to see snow, I'd be pretty confident in some type of minor event there in the Oct 24-31 timeframe.

 

Yeah I'm fairly confident in a first snowfall at least at some elevation on the mountain.  The pattern looks like one of those where the ski area doesn't get all that much snow but flakes are in the air for a number of days possibly next week, especially next week.  I could see one or two days where the COOP comes in with 1-3" at the top of the mountain, with even non-accumulating flakes down to 1,500ft base area with H85 temps a few degrees below 0C. 

 

This time of year its almost always orographic/instability driven brief heavy showers of snow and graupel.  The type of thing where brief cells on radar with cores of 30-40dbz (usually from graupel or just brief heavy snow at elevation) continuously reform over the higher terrain but don't last in one spot long enough to really pile up like a bonifide upslope band sitting over the mountains.  It will certainly feel much more fall-like than it has though...even if that's not really all that "below normal" or rare for this time of year.  Its actually just about climo average for flakes in the last week of October at the ski resort. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm fairly confident in a first snowfall at least at some elevation on the mountain.  The pattern looks like one of those where the ski area doesn't get all that much snow but flakes are in the air for a number of days possibly next week, especially next week.  I could see one or two days where the COOP comes in with 1-3" at the top of the mountain, with even non-accumulating flakes down to 1,500ft base area with H85 temps a few degrees below 0C. 

 

This time of year its almost always orographic/instability driven brief heavy showers of snow and graupel.  The type of thing where brief cells on radar with cores of 30-40dbz (usually from graupel or just brief heavy snow at elevation) continuously reform over the higher terrain but don't last in one spot long enough to really pile up like a bonifide upslope band sitting over the mountains.  It will certainly feel much more fall-like than it has though...even if that's not really all that "below normal" or rare for this time of year.  Its actually just about climo average for flakes in the last week of October at the ski resort. 

 

 

I think temps will be solidly below normal for a period there...which is somewhat independent of the average first date of snowfall (which is also a function of what October has done thus far)

 

They'll be some pretty cold days on the mountain if this pattern comes to fruition. Questions on the details still remain (timing, magnitude)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I think temps will be solidly below normal for a period there...which is somewhat independent of the average first date of snowfall (which is also a function of what October has done thus far)

 

They'll be some pretty cold days on the mountain if this pattern comes to fruition. Questions on the details still remain (timing, magnitude)

 

My issue right now is figuring out how long past the 25th it sticks around.  I think the progression is for a quick cool down shot sometime Sun/Mon but then Tue/Wed sort of moderate before the bottom could drop out late next week into that following weekend.  The trick will be that most models have some sort of synoptic system or low pressure in the vicinity middle of next week...the track of that feature could decide just how cold it gets.  The ECM at 00z almost looked like a secondary redevelopment in the Gulf of Maine on the 24 hr panels but its hard to tell with those.  I still think late next week into the weekend is when it really gets in here...even though the core of it might still be out in the Great Lakes heading towards the Ohio Valley, we are plenty cold during all that.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Columbus Condo Collapser on the GFS.  :lol:

 

This would get interesting, lol.  The model loses it quickly though at truncation.

 

This is trending more east with some of these systems...its trying to go from the cutters to trying to sneak underneath us.  But I don't want to feed the hype and AWTs and all that jazz.  It does seem like its trending more favorable to me over the past 36 hours of runs.  Still have to think some of these end up cutting instead of going out south of us.

 

gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Pretty soon it's time to stop denying and start figuring out just how cold, potentially how snowy, and how long? I'm really thinking this may have some legs, based on the signals we're seeing

 

This is the stuff that gets folks to :weenie: you... just think you may have a slight chance at a passing flurry or graupel shower and leave it at that right now.  You're going to drive us all crazy for the next week if you keep wondering about snow amounts or "how snowy" will it be.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

This is the stuff that gets folks to :weenie: you... just think you may have a slight chance at a passing flurry or graupel shower and leave it at that right now.  You're going to drive us all crazy for the next week if you keep wondering about snow amounts or "how snowy" will it be.

 

It's could just as easily be sunny and 60F the same day.  Nothing like hyping a day 8 snow storm on Oct 15th.

As has been said here by others, I think a trend colder is in the cards next week and that the NNE area may see some wintry precip.

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