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SW/Central/SE VA Disco


Martin

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Yeah really in the screw zone so far here in short pump area..barely a dusting in the last 3 hours haha..prob wont get anythingb till the final batch in c ville makes it down here..owell still a fun storm with the thundersleet and all.. hopefully can add a fresh coat tommrow night..

I heard tomorrow night was trending south. Does it look like we have a shot for anything? I haven't paid much attention to the model. Wouldn't do me much good anyway. I'm still learning and really bad at it.

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I never expected to get what c-ville got.. I actualy thought they would get more then they did... Its just crazy how the dry air always seems to find a way into this area .. Would b an interesting case study to see how and why it seems to happen so much.. Im thinking the mountains have something to do with it...

I didn't expect cville totals, but I expected to get b/t 50-75% of their total, as per normal in cases where RIC and cho see snow from miller a storms.

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As we approach the upcoming "warm period" and the latter half of February, I should note that the 20th-29th period has not been historically prime for large events. Since 1897, here are the snowstorms 3.0" or more. There were quite a few events with 2.7-2.9" (most recent 2/26-27, 2003) that barely missed the list.

 

4.0" February 19-20, 2012
4.0" February 26-27, 1993
5.3" February 23-24, 1989
6.6" February 27-28, 1982
4.7" February 29-March 1, 1968
7.3" February 28, 1964
5.3" February 26, 1963
5.6" February 26-27, 1952
5.4" February 24, 1952
9.3" February 19-20, 1947
3.6" February 27-28, 1941
8.0" February 25, 1934
4.6" February 20, 1914
3.0" February 24, 1907
4.2" February 27, 1906 

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Might want to keep an eye on the Feb. 24-27 timeframe for central and SE VA folks. Taken verbatim the Euro and GFS show hints of a SE--->HAT track which is good news for all of us.

12z GFS/Canadian look huge for the end of Feb. Devil is in the details but huge high pressing from central Canada and southern stream very active. If we can get this one in SE VA this season will probably end up 2nd only to the all-time season of '79-80 (which, of course, had a full-fledged blizzard Mar 1-3).

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Sleet and freezing rain contributed to many accidents in #RVA this morning.  NWS Wakefield's a.m. forecast discussion and update states: DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS FOR THE MORNG COMMUTE."

 

I know there was a heavy burst near the Glenside Drive Exit of I-64, and that seemed to be the centroid of the traffic accidents.

 

Schools opened on time in the area, but our Henrico buses were battling the traffic, and one bus was rear-ended on River Rd.

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12z Euro brings snow/ice again for the lower mid-atlantic/SE Feb. 25-26 with low pressure developing on the arctic front and tracking E/NE across N. Florida while a huge arctic high sets up in the midwest.  The GFS/Canadian generally concur. It seems close to a lock now that some sort of storm will develop somewhere on/near the east coast mid-week next week with plenty of cold air around. Will this be '79-80 all over again?

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With the way everything has been trending north with these recent storms and model data  I'm loving the look of the 12Z euro.  Bulls eye is east coast at NC/Va line.  Keep this line until the 23rd and begin a slow......slight.....trend north.  Hopefully that puts SE  and Central VA both in the wheelhouse!

 

 

Edit:  on second look Hatt / OBX looks to be the bulls eye.  Definitely would like to see the north trend....BUT...not too early that it goes north and west!

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The big one is out there and somebody on the east coast is probably going to get it. Models have shifted away from Feb. 25-26 (still something there but not big) but the players are still on the field through the 1st week of March. The Euro has locked in on Mar. 1-2 on it's last couple of runs. Today's 12z is a huge snowstorm for the lower mid-atlantic/upper SE and points north. Low pressure tracks from near Jacksonville Florida to off the delmarva by 12z Mar. 2 at > 970mb with fresh arctic air blasting in from central Canada and the upper midwest. The b-word would be used if that verifies. Bottom line is we don't know exactly when or exactly where but it's a good bet someone on the east coast will get a snowstorm in the next 10 days.

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The big one is out there and somebody on the east coast is probably going to get it. Models have shifted away from Feb. 25-26 (still something there but not big) but the players are still on the field through the 1st week of March. The Euro has locked in on Mar. 1-2 on it's last couple of runs. Today's 12z is a huge snowstorm for the lower mid-atlantic/upper SE and points north. Low pressure tracks from near Jacksonville Florida to off the delmarva by 12z Mar. 2 at > 970mb with fresh arctic air blasting in from central Canada and the upper midwest. The b-word would be used if that verifies. Bottom line is we don't know exactly when or exactly where but it's a good bet someone on the east coast will get a snowstorm in the next 10 days.

 

970 mb low isn't going to eject off of JAX. If it's that strong, it will be N of there.

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