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SW/Central/SE VA Disco


Martin

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I think we'll be fine here. Upper level features look good. We get some nice RH numbers later in the day. You always have some wobble room with these things. Sure, there exists the possibility that the low tracks further to the north, but then you also have the possibility for the opposite.

 

Seasonal trends are telling. We've done well with our QPF performance all winter long. A few knowledgable mets have stated that the dry slot shouldn't be of much concern. Even AKQ is painting us in the 4-6 stripe.

 

I was going conservative with 2-4" metro-wide, but I may have to bump that up depending on what the 00z suite shows. Good luck to the folks down in HR land.

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Still nothing from Wakefield. It's sad that this area is always the toss up when it comes to winter weather.

 

I really don't think you have much to worry about. Speaking for myself, I've regarded southside and HR a likely advisory area and the WWA is a primarily first/early second period product. I know there is (always) frustration around here with how we handle our winter wx program but it's done for a reason. Put simply...there's no reason for a headline right now. The HWO reflects the threat. The forecast speaks for itself. Relax and enjoy the ride.

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And there it is!! :snowing:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
602 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

VAZ095>098-210715-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.140121T2100Z-140122T0500Z/
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
602 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS: SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* WINDS: NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY TO FREEZING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY EVENING.

* TIMING: RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. THE SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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Certainly a few things to think about as we all head off for bed here.

 

The NAM and Canadian models seem to have shifted much of the "decent" precip away from RIC. The GFS and SREFS held serve which is encouraging. AKQ has some concern about a "soft spot" around or SW of the city which is warranted given what a few of the models have been showing. I can now see why they held off on hoisting the WSW or WWA for the area.

 

As Huff pointed out in the event thread, the timing differences between the GFS and NAM are still significant for this stage. The latter gets going later which I believe leads to a more strung out POS from the start. Time will tell who wins this battle.

 

I'll take the GFS qpf text output of ~.4 and run with it. Puts us in range for a nice 3-5" event, although there are still a few concerns. I'll be sticking with my 2-4" call because I value my public image.

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/ft-animated.gif

You can clearly see that this will be a two part system.. I don't expect to get much of anything in the Richmond area until after 2pm.. The fist batch we might mostly miss to the north. Or be drysloted if you want to call it that.. The Main system has yet to get getting behind this first batch...

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