Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

SW/Central/SE VA Disco

Martin

By Martin,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
JMU2004

JMU2004

Posted
Posted

KRIC reporting is always funny, it seems.

 

Also, we are usually fringed by the truly large storms....ie 2009-2010. We can get a good 10-14 inch storm, but will transition in storms that really crank and dump 30+ inches 60 miles north and west. I have lived here my whole life, and I swear RIC has always been the dividing line b/t r/s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JB Fins

JB Fins

Posted
Posted

KRIC reporting is always funny, it seems.

 

Also, we are usually fringed by the truly large storms....ie 2009-2010. We can get a good 10-14 inch storm, but will transition in storms that really crank and dump 30+ inches 60 miles north and west. I have lived here my whole life, and I swear RIC has always been the dividing line b/t r/s.

I think DT would echo your sentiment.

 

I have been in RIC all my 43 years and it didn't always seem like I-95 was the dividing line but maybe it was when I was younger and did not realize.  I would give the Eisenhower administration a lot of credit if while they were devising the interstate system they took climate into consideration.

 

I remember the 83 storm, I was in 7th grade, we missed some ungodly amount of days from school, so much they tried to make us go on a Saturday but then an ice storm hit the Friday Night and they said screw it, think they tacked it on in June.  I am pretty sure high schools had to cancel exams. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kevin Druff

Kevin Druff

Posted
Posted

RIC_WX (Anthony) is our Richmond historian so he would know for sure but I think this is correct.

 

I know where the airport was measuring was a point of contention and a windmill that RIC_WX was fighting to change.

I remember reading here that RIC has not recorded over 14" from 1 storm since 1983, is that correct?

 

Anthony is on a plane at the moment so he can't chime in. I am not sure when the last time RIC measured a 12"+ storm, but it's been quite some time. There are definitely measurement issues at RIC recently, both with snow and temperatures. We have spoken with AKQ about them several times, but there has been no change on the thermometer placement. I do believe they have a new snow measurement location, however.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted

RIC_WX (Anthony) is our Richmond historian so he would know for sure but I think this is correct.

 

One would think one of the larger events, like 1996, would have exceeded 14".  I believe the airport recorded 11".  I was living in Henrico off Gaskins Road and recorded 16".  Folks just to the north and west recorded 19". 

 

I know where the airport was measuring was a point of contention and a windmill that RIC_WX was fighting to change.

You may have me confused with Anthony, who usually posts under RIC Airport, although I thought his handle changed. 

 

As an aside, growing up in Richmond during the 70's and 80's, I always had this perspective of the rain / snow line existing around Fredericksburg with DC usually being snow and RIC usually rain.  This winter seems to be shaping up similarly so far, although DCA hasn't cashed in I am enjoying my 7th consecutive day of at least patchy snowcover in Loudoun; we've had flurries on and off all day today.

 

Hopefully CVA gets in on the game after the holidays as the seasonal progression pushes some of this south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Inudaw

Inudaw

Posted
Posted

The overall all trends of the storms this early part of the season is really favoring the more climo favored areas out to north and west of the city this year.  More of a classic look to it overall.      Not saying the city itself for Richmond and points south and east toward the beaches won't get anything this year.   But I feel were going to get alot of these storms this year that will leave us in a cold rain.. Or a quick does of mix before going to rain.     (IE typical of winter passed that we should normally expect).       

We can always hold out for that one storm that could produce for the area.     Seems a bit late but.. ice threat seems a bit amplified this year with the highs wanted to settle to north the passed few storms, with a bit of stubborn south east ridge at points.      Time will tell. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MidlothianWX

MidlothianWX

Posted
Posted

I gathered some of those RIC snowfall facts for our disco thread last year. I should probably copy them over here for the new season.

 

To the best of our (i.e. RIC snow weenies) knowledge the last time the airport actually received 14" or more was the 1983 storm. There is no way this will ever be known for sure due to poor measurements but after looking over the data it makes sense. The map by Barbara Watson shows the infamous 11" hole right over the airport. The max in that area was 14" at a COOP station which is where that number (and inference) comes from.

 

Coastals are finicky around here, even more so than cities just to our north. You guys are correct - the r/s line does seem to set up shop right over 95 on a regular basis, which coincidentally runs along the fall line. Fortunately, in years past, we'd luck out every 20-25 years or so with a low so powerful that it didn't really matter. December '09 should have been that storm and certainly had the potential to drop 16"+ on the metro area; unfortunately this did not happen due to the banding setting up just north.

 

I think we need to come to terms with the fact that getting a coastal here with no changeover is an extraordinarily rare event. For this reason, I would put a theoretical cap of ~18" on the airport (the measurements from 1922 and 1940 have been questioned by some) unless you have a black swan like 1899. Obviously, for western areas of the metro it is a different story.

 

Overrunning events are fun and cold but not powerful enough to drop more than a foot or so. January 2010 deposited ~13" IMBY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RIC Airport

RIC Airport

Posted
Posted

Sorry guys, I just don't post here as often. My time isn't unlimited like it used to be. :P  I did change my name, but reverted back earlier this year since I re-located to Richmond for about 6 months. I returned to Seattle in July so may change it back to a more universal name. Part of the reason my posts have declined is b/c there is a Facebook group we created two winters ago. A lot of us that post here are there and there is a very active group chat. Feel free to request joining, but as a courtesy, let us know who you are when joining.

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/372243719453940/

 

I'm in town this weekend and it was great seeing all of you that showed up at Short Pump last night. I will always be loyal to Richmond weather and will continue to participate and track events here.

 

Cheers! :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RIC Airport

RIC Airport

Posted
Posted

You may have me confused with Anthony, who usually posts under RIC Airport, although I thought his handle changed. 

 

As an aside, growing up in Richmond during the 70's and 80's, I always had this perspective of the rain / snow line existing around Fredericksburg with DC usually being snow and RIC usually rain.  This winter seems to be shaping up similarly so far, although DCA hasn't cashed in I am enjoying my 7th consecutive day of at least patchy snowcover in Loudoun; we've had flurries on and off all day today.

 

Hopefully CVA gets in on the game after the holidays as the seasonal progression pushes some of this south.

John, long time no hear! It's great to see you post and I hope you're doing well nowadays. :) I flew into IAD Friday night and was happy to see the snowcover. Looked to me a solid 2" and at least 80% of the ground was still covered. Although I was aware of the snow earlier in the week, I just didn't mentally prepare for such a scene walking out of the terminal. Hopefully, as a region, this winter will produce something memorable. Still waiting on that top 10 storm for Richmond airport, I'm sure it'll happen one day. :unsure:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted

John, long time no hear! It's great to see you post and I hope you're doing well nowadays. :) I flew into IAD Friday night and was happy to see the snowcover. Looked to me a solid 2" and at least 80% of the ground was still covered. Although I was aware of the snow earlier in the week, I just didn't mentally prepare for such a scene walking out of the terminal. Hopefully, as a region, this winter will produce something memorable. Still waiting on that top 10 storm for Richmond airport, I'm sure it'll happen one day. :unsure:

Good to hear from you Anthony and Happy Holidays!  I don't know that a top-10 event is in the cards for any of us this year, but this winter feels like a throwback so far to me.  Let's hope it continues.  Most of the snowpack dried up over the weekend here, but a chance for replenishment as soon as tonight.  Definitely enjoying the winter life in VA above 39* latitude - exclusive territory for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
D-Money

D-Money

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas everyone! Wonderful day outside with temps in the low to mid 30's, just missing the snow... As VABILLUPS posted looks like we have something to watch finally :). Things have been quiet in this sub forum but if the pattern continues to look better it could get popping. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
VABILLUPS1

VABILLUPS1

Posted
Posted

GFS still hinting for 12/31

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

 

The Canadian as well

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=114&fixhh=1&hh=120

 

Not a blizzard for sure but we takes what we can get in these parts. Another system (more substantial) for Jan. 3-4 is showing up now as well. Starting to get it going now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
D-Money

D-Money

Posted
Posted

Just looking at soundings for 12z nam and things could be better temp wise at the surface. Looks like KNTU drops to 36 and KORF to 34.5. This is all 70 hrs+ so it will change. Also seems that it has been moving moisture further west and north which could leave us with just a chilly rain and some token flakes to end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SoCoWx

SoCoWx

Posted
Posted

Just looking at soundings for 12z nam and things could be better temp wise at the surface. Looks like KNTU drops to 36 and KORF to 34.5. This is all 70 hrs+ so it will change. Also seems that it has been moving moisture further west and north which could leave us with just a chilly rain and some token flakes to end.

 

Eh...the NAM is better in the short-range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
VABILLUPS1

VABILLUPS1

Posted
Posted

0z Dec. 29 Euro and Canadian say never mind for Jan. 2-3. Mostly rain for most if not all of VA, and certainly for SE VA on this run. Cold air doesn't get in until the precip is long gone. Good news is the little system overnight Mon. into Tuesday morning still looks to be on track. Probably a dusting to maybe 1" but I'll take it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JB Fins

JB Fins

Posted
Posted

Yep.  Wes and the other PROs in the pattern discussion thread have been pretty spot on.

 

While we have some shots of cold, it would seem that only DC and areas north and west would have a shot at nickel and dime events until we get some blocking, it will be darn near impossible for us to get a decent chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...