eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Initial landfall is forecast at 173 mph now with gusts over 200. That is obviously still extremely dangerous and not much can hold up to that. I am guessing despite being sheltered they could still see Cat 4 gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I told them if they feel safe in Tacloban to just stay there... Even there I would not say they are totally safe. Construction standards here in the Philippines are not quite up to par with what we are used to and even the sturdiest looking structures may not be all that sound. They use a lot of hollow block construction even in a lot of the high rises which I find surprising given the frequency of earthquakes. I wish them well in their journey, but it is just not worth the risk if you ask me. They may wish they had decided not to chase this one when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Does anybody have the link to the Philippines radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 165 knots is actually sustained Cat 5. Edit to note EF scale was being referred to. Not sure it is apples to apples, because it seems tornadoes have winds w/ both horizontal and vertical components, but 195 mph gusting near 250 mph, that will flatten many buildings. And while away from the epicenter, who knows how mnay buildings have hidden damage from the October 15th earthquake, I checked, and that Bohol quake was felt on Samar and Leyte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Does anybody have the link to the Philippines radar? http://climatex.ph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 http://climatex.ph Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow vicious looking cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's Andrew and some josh..epic disaster for those people. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Best wishes on staying safe. This one looks too real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 JMA has this at 862mb sat derived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 JMA has this at 862mb sat derived. That's quite a number! Tip (the storm, not the person) was 870mb Strongest storm ever if that number is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I must say it's incredibly eerie texting back and forth with Josh knowing what is ahead. Something we have always talked about chasing is in his path. As macabre as it sounds we were actually talking about if he needed to adjust positions to intercept the center. Don't mistake that he (and James) doesn't realize the extreme danger that the cyclone poses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Josh and co's plan for now is to stay in Tacloblan. We both agreed that "this $hit was too crazy" to go messin around in fishing towns/ villages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I would have passed on this one.. Just not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That's quite a number! Tip (the storm, not the person) was 870mb Strongest storm ever if that number is accurate. Just an estimate actually. For the sake of argument, the JTWC estimates are 887mb Personally, I wouldn't want to mess with a cyclones core that holds 165-170 knot sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 mesovorts! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/131107_mtsat_vis_haiyan_eye_mesovorts_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'd venture to say winds sustain are now 200 mph. Just can't imagine the images when this is over. Again this isn't worth risking life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 mesovorts! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/131107_mtsat_vis_haiyan_eye_mesovorts_anim.gif What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Superstorm93, Come stop by McComsey 212 if you have the time today. I'll be here till 9pm (excluding lunch/dinner) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 What does that mean? It's gone Isabel! (Josh will like that). Big storm.. those little mesovorts often have stronger winds etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's gone Isabel! (Josh will like that). Big storm.. those little mesovorts often have stronger winds etc. Yeah I just did a little google search. Very violent supercells within the eyewall. I remember when the hurricane hunters were reporting hail aloft in Isabel. I wonder if that will occur with this system. Why doesn't the US air force assist with such dangerous cyclones such as this one? Certainly we have plenty of air force bases in the south Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Josh and co's plan for now is to stay in Tacloblan. We both agreed that "this $hit was too crazy" to go messin around in fishing towns/ villages. Glad to hear that. Those town and villages on the east coast of Samar are barely above sea level and only protected by mangroves (which is to say no protection at all.) Checking out the area on Google earth, I could find no well built structures in any of those towns. In fact the tallest/sturdiest building I saw was the church in Borongan. A very good idea for them to stay put in Tacloban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 less than 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Curious as to the surge potential. This beast must have a small tsunami in front of it by now. Serious loss of life potential here me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Superstorm93, Come stop by McComsey 212 if you have the time today. I'll be here till 9pm (excluding lunch/dinner) Sounds good. Ill try and get in touch with you some time after 2pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The previous version of the CIMSS ADT have Haiyan over 8.0 This is incredibly impressive. Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 8.0 8.1 8.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Curious as to the surge potential. This beast must have a small tsunami in front of it by now. Serious loss of life potential here me thinks. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/NOAH%20SS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 dvorak has it at 8.1...195mph. good heavens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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