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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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Overnight models don't look good :/

Sent from my XT1060

 

we still have the ens in our pockets for the gfs and the euro....but yea, a bit disconcerting.  Definitely a Chicago to Detroit winter.    If this one hard lefts on us, maybe the 10 day one that the midatlantic crowd is hyping up will do the same.   Never seems to work that way though. 

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Hey, it may very well be another Chicago to Detroit special, but anyone like a certain individual in another thread who proclaims that there's a 95% chance that it will be further NW and amped and that he hopes all of the models show it soon to spare us, is completely full of it.  It really could go either way, and if he's right, there was no more science involved than if one were to do a coin flip for a forecast.

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Hey, it may very well be another Chicago to Detroit special, but anyone like a certain individual in another thread who proclaims that there's a 95% chance that it will be further NW and amped and that he hopes all of the models show it soon to spare us, is completely full of it.  It really could go either way, and if he's right, there was no more science involved than if one were to do a coin flip for a forecast.

 

for me it depends on the hour you ask me and whether I'm answering with my weenie or my head. lol.    If I'm totally honest right now, it's hard not to fear the nw trend, it definitely has a track record behind it.    Then I  have to remind myself that every storm is a unique, event and whether or not the last storm(s) tracked nw have no bearing on what this one will do.    I still think everything is on the table, even the other end of the spectrum, (a sheared out solution).  In fact I'd be shocked if the gfs doesn't have it's usual lost storm look on an upcoming run.   The gfs always having the most amped look on all the runs is just....weird.  

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for me it depends on the hour you ask me and whether I'm answering with my weenie or my head. lol.    If I'm totally honest right now, it's hard not to fear the nw trend, it definitely has a track record behind it.    Then I  have to remind myself that every storm is a unique, event and whether or not the last storm(s) tracked nw have no bearing on what this one will do.    I still think everything is on the table, even the other end of the spectrum, (a sheared out solution).  In fact I'd be shocked if the gfs doesn't have it's usual lost storm look on an upcoming run.   The gfs always having the most amped look on all the runs is just....weird.  

 

Also weird that the Canadian and Euro went in opposite directions last night.  The Canadian, imo, has been much better this winter than the Euro and the GFS, so if it comes up with an amped NW run, I'll panic!

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Don't do it guys. Don't do this. I realize that I'm not a regular poster here (I only visit and read your stuff during Winter), but I hate to see us get disappointed like we were on Jan 5.

NW trend seems to take a life of its own. Hate to be that way, but it's tough to watch this unfold - especially with as many small to moderate snows we've had in Dayton this season. But the Big Dogs? Sooooo close.

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Would it help the snow chances next week if I spite the weather gods in some way?

You call this winter? Ha, this long-time West Coaster was expecting Snowmageddon when I moved here two years ago but nope! Bring your worst, I tell ya! I'm not afraid! :-D

To be serious, I'll remember this winter for the cold temps for certain. Easily the most interesting winter I've encountered in a long while

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http://goo.gl/maps/Hv9WO

 

3"+ Columbus storm tracks 1878-1899.  Not all storms are on here as some couldn't be determined, nor are events like snowy cold fronts.  Just figured it was interesting.  I'll post later year maps over time.

Very cool! I especially like the red (9.2") and pink (10.6") tracks. Illustrates two very different ways to get around 10 inches of snow.

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Am i missing something...seems that some are ready to punt tuesday's storm away..as far as i can see we are still in a favorable track..and i have heard mention that this storm could go just west of the spine of the appalachians..i know,a hard track to get to come full circle..but 5 days out still!!

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Am i missing something...seems that some are ready to punt tuesday's storm away..as far as i can see we are still in a favorable track..and i have heard mention that this storm could go just west of the spine of the appalachians..i know,a hard track to get to come full circle..but 5 days out still!!

It's too early to give up on it. What I'm more concerned about is the freezing rain possibility for us if this thing does track further north. The GFS has been hinting at this for a day or two.

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Way too soon in my opinion. I think if by Saturday things are still looking north then maybe it'll be time to throw in the towel, but as for now it's definitely too soon to give up on it. And for others northwest too soon to create hype. From any major storm I've tracked this winter there hasn't been much consistency until a day or two out. I'll give it til Saturday.

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Way too soon in my opinion. I think if by Saturday things are still looking north then maybe it'll be time to throw in the towel, but as for now it's definitely too soon to give up on it. And for others northwest too soon to create hype. From any major storm I've tracked this winter there hasn't been much consistency until a day or two out. I'll give it til Saturday.

 

I tend to agree.  Plenty of time to watch how things evolve.  Not that I expect an outcome different from being too far NW, but still time.

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What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

It tells you just how badly we've been beaten by the nw trend this year.  We've lost our collective sacks.  

Look at us, we are throwing in the towel on a storm that is still 5-6 days away from being in position to come out of the gulf states.  We are talking NEXT Tuesday at the earliest....we still have Friday and the entire weekend to go thru.   Energy is still out in the pacific with the carnival cruisers and there are 2 or 3 smaller storms modeled in front of it affecting the Midwest and eastcoast  between now and Monday.   Speaking of which, the models have already screwed up one of those storms and suddenly the Mid Atlantic is in play for accumulating snow Monday.   On top of all of this we have seemed to forgotten that there ARE models giving us a solid track and big snows...the ggem (which has been rock solid consistent), and the ukmet,    The euro ens are southeast and the gefs have been consistently southeast.

 

Now suddenly we decide that the gfs OP is without flaw beyond 120 hours, (the same gfs that was consistently giving us a snowstorm January 5th up until about 48 hours out).  On top of that the euro burps nw,  and what do we do?

 

We all sh*t our collective OV briefs, pick up our snow shovels and walk away like beaten dogs.    For godsakes gentlemen go down swinging, don't leave the fight before the energy has even been sampled.   Look what happened last weekend, we were all whining about how we'd get the usual dusting to an inch and we came out of the weekend with 10".  Anyone see that one coming?  Anyone?   Oh yea wait....the GGEM did!   The euro said 3".   I will not give up nor should you...and if that low does decides to visit CMH at least it'll be passing over men with their sacks intact.  Carry on.

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What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

It tells you just how badly we've been beaten by the nw trend this year.  We've lost our collective sacks.  

Look at us, we are throwing in the towel on a storm that is still 5-6 days away from being in position to come out of the gulf states.  We are talking NEXT Tuesday at the earliest....we still have Friday and the entire weekend to go thru.   Energy is still out in the pacific with the carnival cruisers and there are 2 or 3 smaller storms modeled in front of it affecting the Midwest and eastcoast  between now and Monday.   Speaking of which, the models have already screwed up one of those storms and suddenly the Mid Atlantic is in play for accumulating snow Monday.   On top of all of this we have seemed to forgotten that there ARE models giving us a solid track and big snows...the ggem (which has been rock solid consistent), and the ukmet,    The euro ens are southeast and the gefs have been consistently southeast.

 

Now suddenly we decide that the gfs OP is without flaw beyond 120 hours, (the same gfs that was consistently giving us a snowstorm January 5th up until about 48 hours out).  On top of that the euro burps nw,  and what do we do?

 

We all sh*t our collective OV briefs, pick up our snow shovels and walk away like beaten dogs.    For godsakes gentlemen go down swinging, don't leave the fight before the energy has even been sampled.   Look what happened last weekend, we were all whining about how we'd get the usual dusting to an inch and we came out of the weekend with 10".  Anyone see that one coming?  Anyone?   Oh yea wait....the GGEM did!   The euro said 3".   I will not give up nor should you...and if that low does decides to visit CMH at least it'll be passing over men with their sacks intact.  Carry on.

Lets go get it.....yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Thanks for that storm track map - I'm still trying to get familiar with the basic patterns for this area after 3 decades of being in Northern California.

 

After experiencing the derecho two summers ago, I'm hoping to experiencing a similarly historic on the winter side of things.  Back in Cali, some pretty common stuff around here would create quite a buzz, but I took what I could get.

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What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

It tells you just how badly we've been beaten by the nw trend this year. We've lost our collective sacks.

Look at us, we are throwing in the towel on a storm that is still 5-6 days away from being in position to come out of the gulf states. We are talking NEXT Tuesday at the earliest....we still have Friday and the entire weekend to go thru. Energy is still out in the pacific with the carnival cruisers and there are 2 or 3 smaller storms modeled in front of it affecting the Midwest and eastcoast between now and Monday. Speaking of which, the models have already screwed up one of those storms and suddenly the Mid Atlantic is in play for accumulating snow Monday. On top of all of this we have seemed to forgotten that there ARE models giving us a solid track and big snows...the ggem (which has been rock solid consistent), and the ukmet, The euro ens are southeast and the gefs have been consistently southeast.

Now suddenly we decide that the gfs OP is without flaw beyond 120 hours, (the same gfs that was consistently giving us a snowstorm January 5th up until about 48 hours out). On top of that the euro burps nw, and what do we do?

We all sh*t our collective OV briefs, pick up our snow shovels and walk away like beaten dogs. For godsakes gentlemen go down swinging, don't leave the fight before the energy has even been sampled. Look what happened last weekend, we were all whining about how we'd get the usual dusting to an inch and we came out of the weekend with 10". Anyone see that one coming? Anyone? Oh yea wait....the GGEM did! The euro said 3". I will not give up nor should you...and if that low does decides to visit CMH at least it'll be passing over men with their sacks intact. Carry on.

Besr post ever!
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What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

It tells you just how badly we've been beaten by the nw trend this year.  We've lost our collective sacks.  

Look at us, we are throwing in the towel on a storm that is still 5-6 days away from being in position to come out of the gulf states.  We are talking NEXT Tuesday at the earliest....we still have Friday and the entire weekend to go thru.   Energy is still out in the pacific with the carnival cruisers and there are 2 or 3 smaller storms modeled in front of it affecting the Midwest and eastcoast  between now and Monday.   Speaking of which, the models have already screwed up one of those storms and suddenly the Mid Atlantic is in play for accumulating snow Monday.   On top of all of this we have seemed to forgotten that there ARE models giving us a solid track and big snows...the ggem (which has been rock solid consistent), and the ukmet,    The euro ens are southeast and the gefs have been consistently southeast.

 

Now suddenly we decide that the gfs OP is without flaw beyond 120 hours, (the same gfs that was consistently giving us a snowstorm January 5th up until about 48 hours out).  On top of that the euro burps nw,  and what do we do?

 

We all sh*t our collective OV briefs, pick up our snow shovels and walk away like beaten dogs.    For godsakes gentlemen go down swinging, don't leave the fight before the energy has even been sampled.   Look what happened last weekend, we were all whining about how we'd get the usual dusting to an inch and we came out of the weekend with 10".  Anyone see that one coming?  Anyone?   Oh yea wait....the GGEM did!   The euro said 3".   I will not give up nor should you...and if that low does decides to visit CMH at least it'll be passing over men with their sacks intact.  Carry on.

Awesome post. We're a broken bunch at times... Not surprising considering our regular beatings by the models. What's funny is the current storm hasn't even been fully sampled. So to write off anything next week is silly. Way to premature to spike the ball like some are already doing.

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