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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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I tried to shoot some of the lenticular clouds that really stacked up but unfortunately by the time I got the camera out the good ones were gone. I hope for more chances soon. I want to get the ones that really stack up like dinner plates.

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Yesterday (58/27) was actually below my avg - by about half a degree.  That makes 4 of 21 below avg, two of those by a small fraction of one degree.  October is running +3.7 ATM, which if sustained would make this month 2nd mildest behind 10/07.  Won't happen; I'm expecting to finish between +1 and +2. 

 

Only 0.74" precip so far this month.  10/01 had only 1.12" so that might be a stretch to beat, but #2 is 2004 with 2.30", and I think we come in under that. 

Last 38 days: 1.19" total.  Swamps always fill up before winter, though.

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From TABER at BTV on the weekend clipper...

GFS/European model (ecmwf) and Gem all show a weak clipper like system impacting our County Warning Area late Saturday into Sunday...with a widespread light rain/snow event likely. Quantitative precipitation forecast generally between 0.05 cpv to 0.20 dacks/Green Mountains given the anticipated position of middle/upper level trough axis...expect clipper system to track across the central Great Lakes on Saturday and into southern Canada by Sunday...placing our County Warning Area on the warmer side of the system. However...prognosticated 850 mb temperatures only warm between -2c and -4c by Sat night...with 1000 to 500mb thickness values staying blw 540...supporting some snow...especially above 1500 feet. Thinking bl temperatures near 4c across the valley with south to southwest downslope follow will keep precipitation mostly liquid across the cpv. The combination of well aligned surface to 850mb follow of 25 to 35 knots...along with some lake effect moisture...will help to enhance moisture across the dacks and northern/central greens late Sat into Sunday. A light snow accumulation of a dusting to several inches looks likely above 1500 feet by Sunday...especially where lake moisture and clipper dynamics/lift combined to produce slightly higher quantitative precipitation forecast amounts. Besides clipper system...weak embedded vorts in the follow aloft...combined with several surface troughs will continue to keep forecast area unsettled through the period.

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You got it, Jeff! For your winter pleasure, I also have access to EURO MOS data real time, but the maps are slightly delayed...teamwork? :)

 

Yes

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…indeed models like the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a progression that could bring snow chances here in about a week.

With today’s reports of snow in the Northern Greens, it looks like the models were on track with the prognostications from about a week ago.  Beyond the snow that fell today, it seemed like there might be the chance for a little something in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, but in the latest BTV NWS discussion, it looks like it's just going to be some transient lake effect snow that's more off to the west and south of this area.  There’s starting to be more discussion about the potential weekend Clipper system though as PF posted:

 

A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES LOOKS LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT BY SUNDAY...

 

It could be the first Clipper of the season for the Greens to do something with; we’ll have to see if it stays on track.

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Quite a potent little thunderstorm moved across the mid coast last evening. Here at home I saw/heard several flashes of lightning/thunder. We also had moderate winds and rain. Lasted about 15 minutes. Current temp 34.0°F.

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There were reports of some small hail in S.Maine last evening, from low-topped storms.

 

Upper 20s when I left the house this morning, probably got below the season's previous low of 27.  (In 2000, I recorded a low of 19 on this date.)

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We were looking back at some consecutive +/- streaks to compare our current 27-day streak of AOA normal temps to.

 

2 things stood out:

 

Nov-Dec 1989 had 32 straight days of below normal days and some of those were disgusting...

 

But while looking at March 2012, I guess I forgot how MUCH above we really were. We had 5 consecutive days of 30+ degree DEPARTURES with the greatest departure of +37F on March 22nd.

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We were looking back at some consecutive +/- streaks to compare our current 27-day streak of AOA normal temps to.

 

2 things stood out:

 

Nov-Dec 1989 had 32 straight days of below normal days and some of those were disgusting...

 

But while looking at March 2012, I guess I forgot how MUCH above we really were. We had 5 consecutive days of 30+ degree DEPARTURES with the greatest departure of +37F on March 22nd.

 

That was obscene... I remember coming into Mountain Operations at 5am (I'm usually the first in the office) and talking to the groomers who said snow was melting so fast during the overnight's that trails they had groomed at like 5pm had patchy cover by 5am.  At 1,500-1,800ft where that mid-level inversion is persistent over Mansfield at night (you've probably noticed that Stowe base station likes to stay warm at night with persistent/pesky wind while lower down decouples), we were seeing lows in like the mid-50s and highs in the 70-80F range.  That station can't even do that most Junes and that's about the average for the hottest time of the year. 

 

1,600ft averages in late July are probably like 55/75 or something, lol. But that's what we had for a while in March 2012.

 

Here are some high/lows for that period for the KVTSTOWE3 station on Wunderground (Same station on the Mansfield Meso-net page)...

 

March 11...52/25 *last freeze for a while

March 12...63/44

March 13...61/44

March 14...53/35

March 15...54/34

March 16...41/36

March 17...62/35

March 18...76/46

March 19...76/52

March 20...76/49

March 21...78/53

March 22...75/55

March 23...57/43

March 24...50/37

 

Just look at that 18th-22nd period though... that is incredible for that time of year (highs mid/upper 70s and lows in the 50s is like a summer forecast for the mid-slope elevations of the Greens).  I have never seen like 6 feet of snow melt so fast...even snowmaking trails that had 10 foot snowpacks down the middle of the trail got decimated.  Overnight lows were still like 15F above the normal high temps for that time of year, lol.

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Snowing down to 1,500ft now in Stowe. Little upslope response bringing flakes to the base area... 36F with a dew of 30F.

1379496_10151645078547382_314581862_n.jp

October_23.gif

Summit photo by WCAX at the transmitter site...

1401589_10153365848880442_1639727065_o.j

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I was surprised to find a couple hundredths of new liquid in the rain gauge this morning, and with temperatures dipping down into the 20s F for the first time this season, I also wouldn’t be surprised if there were some flakes out there last night.  There were no obvious signs that any snow had fallen with the ground just wet/frozen, but after hearing reports of snow in areas like Stowe and Lyndonville during Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning (and now some here in the thread), there were clearly some lower-elevation flakes around overnight in parts of Northern Vermont.  This recent influx of air has certainly been cold, and under partly cloudy skies this morning you could tell by the brilliance of the stars.  Anyway, Roger mentioned that there are various chances for snow over the next few days, and looking at on our point and click forecast, the potential for snow is shown for as far as the forecast goes, which is all the way through the middle of next week.

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I missed the first snow, lol. Friends say there are coatings around...

A friend sent this one to me from her house in Stowe at around 1000ft.

This one from WCAX in Greensboro, VT.

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Not quite as dramatic as the pics posted by PF, but here is the roof of my car this morning.

Awesome! That's more snow than I saw in New York last night haha. MPV reported Light Snow around 2:30am so I'm assuming that's when yours fell. You have the first proof of flakes at any of the NNE posters' houses this season, congrats.

And Dramatic pics? lol they are partial wet-snow dustings.

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Reports of snow from St. J, Lyndon, and Burke last night.  I saw a few snow covered cars on the way in but no sign of any snow in Peacham or on the ground on my trip to St. J.  Eye on the Sky reported snow in Lyndon and at the Fairbanks Museum. A coworker got snow in E Burke.

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Awesome! That's more snow than I saw in New York last night haha. MPV reported Light Snow around 2:30am so I'm assuming that's when yours fell. You have the first proof of flakes at any of the NNE posters' houses this season, congrats.

And Dramatic pics? lol they are partial wet-snow dustings.

Well, maybe dramatic was a bit of hyperbole  :P.  The one of the dog on the deck looked like about a half an inch.  His paw prints were clearly visible.

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Figured it was high time to say hello again.  ;)

 

Had a few snow grains on the truck this morning--nothing like the photos posted but the first signs nonetheless.

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