Welcome to American Weather
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

1,549 posts in this topic

:snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:

 

SOME RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGS

INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL

SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE

ON A NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. THE 00Z GFS TRIGGERS THE DEVELOPMENT

OF AN EAST COAST LOW ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC

REGION...BEFORE RAPIDLY BRINGING THE "BOMBING" SYSTEM UP THE

COAST. THIS SCENARIO EVENTUALLY BRINGS A 986 MB STORM THROUGH THE

GULF OF MAINE..WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND A COLD

RAIN ELSEWHERE. THIS FEATURE IS STILL A WEEK AWAY AND THERE IS

PLENTY OF MODEL DISCONTINUITY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR

HOWEVER...AS IT WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON.

IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THE FLOOD GATES WILL BE OPEN TO MUCH

COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD KILLING FROSTS TO REACH THE COASTLINE.

 

shaking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro (from the limited view I have) looks a bit more robust than the GFS for any upslope potential as of now. We shall see how this plays out but definitely it looks interesting for the 24th time frame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro (from the limited view I have) looks a bit more robust than the GFS for any upslope potential as of now. We shall see how this plays out but definitely it looks interesting for the 24th time frame.

 

Yes, Euro keeps the primary well to the west, Looks like the LES machine may get going as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Take that freezing rain event on the summits a few weeks ago...it was 29F and freezing rain, BUT not because there was warm air aloft. It was because the lift was occurring so low in the atmosphere that there wasn't any ice crystal formation to start a snowflake. Some trees up there had up to a half inch glaze even with a fully below freezing sounding.

I like to see -3C to -6C at H85 to even think about snow in a low level upslope scenario this time of year and preferably it would be like -8C or something.

  when did that freezing rain event happen?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

when did that freezing rain event happen?

I'm pretty sure it was Sept 23rd. Mansfield COOP reported a trace of snow but it was all freezing rain as far as I saw and was up there all day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro (from the limited view I have) looks a bit more robust than the GFS for any upslope potential as of now. We shall see how this plays out but definitely it looks interesting for the 24th time frame.

 

Certainly both seem to suggest upper elevation orographic snowfall next week. Hard to get good "upslope" accums this time of year. I much prefer synoptic wet snow...but snow is snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolute peak in my area today. Just beautiful. Picture from this mornings webcam. This is the actual picture with no digital enhancements!

fantastic Gene

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

High of 55 today here...feels downright cold haha.

Upper mountain didn't get out of the 30s today.

 

went up to poke around. Almost got blown off the forehead. Hands froze. Felt awesome. 

 

Looking ahead to this week it seems less likely the nor greens will pick up any substantial snowfall. Dusting maybe when the front clears tuesday and some flakes are possible again thurs. But nothing looks quite right. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mount Washington is a truly magical place ... NNE's version of Mount Tolland. To wit, today under sunny skies they are forecasting the possibility of tropical storm conditions.

tropicalstormMWN.jpg

Haha that's awesome. Won't find many more spots in the US who have a forecast of like 4 days of Tropical Storm conditions.

I wonder why it phrases it like that...Oceanstate must know. Out west I look at the mountain forecasts a lot and the point forecasts can have similar or higher wind and won't say tropical storm...just an east coast thing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haha that's awesome. Won't find many more spots in the US who have a forecast of like 4 days of Tropical Storm conditions.

I wonder why it phrases it like that...Oceanstate must know. Out west I look at the mountain forecasts a lot and the point forecasts can have similar or higher wind and won't say tropical storm...just an east coast thing?

 

Yeah, I've seen this before on a number of occasions.  It would be interesting to understand what parameters trigger this, though on a chilly sunny day with average winds I can't imagine what that might be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm guessing they're still in "tropical/warm season mode" or something in the P&C. A certain sustained wind speed gets met and the TC/Cane forecasts get triggered. There's probably an algorithm that doesn't allow it to be mentioned with wintry precip which would explain why it comes and goes all week. I know I've seen MWN forecasts before with high winds, but no tropical graphics...just "very windy".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mount Washington is a truly magical place ... NNE's version of Mount Tolland.  To wit, today under sunny skies they are forecasting the possibility of tropical storm conditions.

 

attachicon.giftropicalstormMWN.jpg

 

Thanks for posting that image, need to get rid of that tropical wording. The P&C formatter strikes again.

 

Basically that wording shows up if the tropical wind probability grid exists. It doesn't care what the probability is (in this case 0%), just that the grid is there. So in a few minutes this will change from tropical storm conditions possible to damaging winds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There were some cool lenticular clouds over the Greens today. I love those and would love to shoot them at sunset sometime if the setup occurs. It must be quite windy on the peaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There were some cool lenticular clouds over the Greens today. I love those and would love to shoot them at sunset sometime if the setup occurs. It must be quite windy on the peaks.

Yeah I saw those as well as I was leaving town. Heading south to ALB and saw some decent foliage still in the CPV south of BTV.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long time no talk, guys! Hoping for some flakes above 1.5-2k sometime within the next week!

I was just wondering the other day if you were still around in the area.  I got used to you doing our local snow forecasts last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just wondering the other day if you were still around in the area.  I got used to you doing our local snow forecasts last year.

I'm a senior this year, so I'm still around for this year! I've been busy with internships and job applications and whatnot, so my time on here has been limited. During  the winter and during snowstorms I will be here all the time! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.