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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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35F last night with a skim frost on the cars. That makes 3 mornings in a row with at least some frost.

A persistence forecast would probably call for 65-70F, based on the overnight low.

66/31

65/32

??/35

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We are on a hill at 750'. It's quite dramatic when I leave my house in the morning and drop down to ~350' and the temp difference can be ~3-6F colder. I understand the lower level valleys will be colder, but when I come home at night, we're always colder then below, but the outcome is the opposite by the morning. I figured the drop in temp of ~3F for every 1000' gain in altitude would apply, but maybe that only happens in more mountainous areas?

 

Probably a good number if the atmosphere is mixing well, but darktime radiation can produce inversions that overcome "normal" altitude/temp relationships.  When I lived in Ft. Kent's back settlement at 970' (downtown was about 520') and headed to work on a still winter morning, a smoke layer hanging 50 yards above the cone burner at the cedar mill across in Canada told me that the office would be 10-15F colder than at home.

 

Scraped frost again this morning.  Slept in Orono Wed night, had to scrape frozen dew off the windshield Thurs morning.  In-vehicle thermometer read 37 each morning, not too impressive for accuracy.

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Anyone notice how low the dews are in the mountain valleys this afternoon? We've gotten very dry this afternoon...

SLK dews went from 30F to 18F between 2-3pm...with a skin cracking 12% RH.

Here at MVL we went from 36F to 25F between 2-3pm and also hit 16% RH.

Meanwhile, BTV between the two sites has dews in the 40s and currently is 46F with RH near 40%.

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Maybe just as cool as the aurora itself, VIIRS was able to capture the display on its day/night band last night just after 4 AM. By bouncing back and forth between the fog product and the day/night band we're able to tell that the bright, cloud-like features in Canada are indeed aurora and not clouds.

 

attachicon.gifaurora.jpg

Cool!  

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Left beautiful blue skies and 60+ degree weather up here to go to the snowmobile grass drags in Epping, NH and found ourselves in the middle of a classic back door front toaster bath type of day. Sheet mist from time to time and temps in the low to mid 50's. The only thing that got warm was my wallet from constantly opening! The boy refuses to stop growing though and had to get him all new sled gear. Almost ready for snow now.

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Anyone notice how low the dews are in the mountain valleys this afternoon? We've gotten very dry this afternoon...

SLK dews went from 30F to 18F between 2-3pm...with a skin cracking 12% RH.

Here at MVL we went from 36F to 25F between 2-3pm and also hit 16% RH.

Meanwhile, BTV between the two sites has dews in the 40s and currently is 46F with RH near 40%.

 

My wood pile noticed this. I feel like it dried out overnight. 

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The forecast for the Chocorua area was calling for abundant sun, temps in the mid 50s and wind (if you can call it that) drifting along at 5mph or less. They got the wind correct. It was a cloudy day that only became worse in the form of fog at 2000' or so. What should have been a view-gasm of a day was limited to visibility of perhaps 200'. On the way down we were lucky enough to get beneath the fog to catch a decent panoramic view. Better luck next time :)

post-254-0-20076500-1381714000_thumb.jpg

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Next up on my “to do” list is last season’s ski summary... By the time I’m finished with that it should be just about time for some new turns around here.

 

Well, our 2012-2013 Ski Season Summary is complete and indeed models like the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a progression that could bring snow chances here in about a week.  It’s sort of bittersweet in that it would mean losing the amazing autumn weather we’ve been having, but we know things are going to change eventually.  Anyway, the 2012-2013 Winter Weather Summary focused on how things went in the valley, and the 2012-2013 Ski Season Summary speaks more to the storms, snowfall, and snowpack in the higher elevations of the Northern Greens, so folks can check that out if they’re interested:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2013/10/13/2012-2013-ski-season-summary/

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...models like the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a progression that could bring snow chances here in about a week.  It’s sort of bittersweet in that it would mean losing the amazing autumn weather we’ve been having, but we know things are going to change eventually.

 

It looks like the BTV NWS has similar feelings about the possible changes in the weather – from this morning’s discussion:

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 346 AM EDT MONDAY...SO AFTER A LONG AND DELIGHTFUL STRETCH

OF WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE

MOTHER NATURE WILL FINALLY SAY ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND BRING US SOME

MORE TYPICAL AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS BY LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT

WEEKEND. THAT IS TO SAY CLOUDIER AND COOLER WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF

SHOWERS. OH WELL...ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END. THIS

MORNING`S MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN

OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A PRONOUNCED PATTERN CHANGE AS

THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING NORTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY

BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED BY AN EVOLVING EAST CENTRAL NOAM UPPER

TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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Yea, I think this week is a transition week. Trough-y weather builds in starting over the weekend. 

I'm particularly interested in the last week of the month.  Indications support schussable snow high-up in that period. 

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Yea, I think this week is a transition week. Trough-y weather builds in starting over the weekend. 

I'm particularly interested in the last week of the month.  Indications support schussable snow high-up in that period. 

 

I'm watching the 24th-28th for potential first accumulating snows on Mansfield and also snowmaking potential...looks like a good time to blow out the mice.  Any move to snowmaking would be based off what the pattern looks like beyond that period.  Need to make sure it doesn't look mild right away in early November. 

 

I sort of like late next week for some possible NW-flow light snow accumulations on the upper mountain.  Overall I think the pattern looks good for flakes in the air but unless we get a synoptic storm, skiable snow looks very low to me (however, I know FIS has a lower threshold for skiable snow ;).  I could see a pattern where the stake gets like a couple days of light/1-3" at the summit with instability and NW flow snow showers.  At the very least, I'm confident we see the first flakes in the mountains.

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Wrt something mentioned in this thread earlier, (3f cooler for every 1k) i always thought it was about 25-30% more. (3.8 or so cooler for every 1k in elevation).

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Wrt something mentioned in this thread earlier, (3f cooler for every 1k) i always thought it was about 25-30% more. (3.8 or so cooler for every 1k in elevation).

 

According to Wiki, dry lapse rate is about 5.4F/1000 ft, and wet lapse is around 3.0F/1000 ft but varies with temp.  Of course, things get mixed so there's no "right" number.  There's also an "environmetal" lapse rate, a working average set at about 3.6F/1000 ft throughout the troposphere.

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According to Wiki, dry lapse rate is about 5.4F/1000 ft, and wet lapse is around 3.0F/1000 ft but varies with temp. Of course, things get mixed so there's no "right" number. There's also an "environmetal" lapse rate, a working average set at about 3.6F/1000 ft throughout the troposphere.

thank u, esp w reference to the wet and dry lapse rates

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GYX introducing the possibility of snow for some areas ...

 

THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES MOVES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT... THIS TIME WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM GETS GOING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH INITIALLY... WITH WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF IT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS SNOW IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE COLD
AIR HANGS ON LONGER.

 

  :snowing:

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A drive up the Bolton Access Road?

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCATION OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AS FAR AS TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES GO...THEREFORE LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR IMPULSES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY
PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE...THOUGH AFTER A FEW IMPULSES BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW...HIGHER PEAKS COULD BE LEFT WITH A WHITE COATING.

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GYX introducing the possibility of snow for some areas ...

 

THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES MOVES INTO

THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BRING A CHANCE OF

SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE MAY

BRING A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT... THIS TIME WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR

TO ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER

TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM GETS GOING OVER THE GREAT LAKES

MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON

TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH INITIALLY... WITH WARM

ADVECTION SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF IT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF

THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS SNOW IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE COLD

AIR HANGS ON LONGER.

 

  :snowing:

 

Yup, cold trend on the models these past several days for that period

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Yea, I think this week is a transition week. Trough-y weather builds in starting over the weekend. I'm particularly interested in the last week of the month.  Indications support schussable snow high-up in that period.

 

GYX introducing the possibility of snow for some areas ...

 

A drive up the Bolton Access Road?

 

I noted that as of this morning, BTV has started including the mention of snow in their forecast discussions, so I’m glad to see that things are picking up here in the NNE thread.  It looks like we’re just about to turn that corner from the greener 1/3 of the year to that other, typically whiter, 2/3 of the year.

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Pants on or pants off

:lol:

It's nice to see and I think there's a chance of a light upslope event later next week depending on where the midweek system coming out of the Lakes tracks...but honestly it doesn't look like much to get overly excited about. Pretty climo normal to dust the upper elevations in the last week of October. It's just nice to see the all out torch this month has been to disappear and get back to more normal late-fall conditions.

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:lol:

It's nice to see and I think there's a chance of a light upslope event later next week depending on where the midweek system coming out of the Lakes tracks...but honestly it doesn't look like much to get overly excited about. Pretty climo normal to dust the upper elevations in the last week of October. It's just nice to see the all out torch this month has been to disappear and get back to more normal late-fall conditions.

First snow of year is definitely something to get overly excited about. Snap out of it, man! *slap*

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First snow of year is definitely something to get overly excited about. Snap out of it, man! *slap*

Haha I know I know. Slap needed. It just isn't anything too out of the ordinary for this time of year is what I'm getting at I guess. Maybe if it evolves into like a 4-8" mountain snowfall then I'll be pumped.

I'll also be out of town till next Saturday so that's tempering my excitement too, lol.

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:lol:

It's nice to see and I think there's a chance of a light upslope event later next week depending on where the midweek system coming out of the Lakes tracks...but honestly it doesn't look like much to get overly excited about. Pretty climo normal to dust the upper elevations in the last week of October. It's just nice to see the all out torch this month has been to disappear and get back to more normal late-fall conditions.

Well in the name of accuracy, i would say there is more than a chance of a LIGHT event

This Is something that is bein talk'd about a week ahead of time bc it has chance to be quite significant. But i know u know that and your being cautious, esp this far out.

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Well in the name of accuracy, i would say there is more than a chance of a LIGHT event

This Is something that is bein talk'd about a week ahead of time bc it has chance to be quite significant. But i know u know that and your being cautious, esp this far out.

The set up isn't textbook by any means on the models...and by light I mean 1-4" event. I do light as up to 4"...moderate is 4-8"...and heavy as 8"+. Anyway, what usually happens this time of year in upslope is graupel and really poor ratio snowflakes. That's the main negative factor. You have to remember that this upslope snow is forming at like 3-6000ft with snow growth taking place at H85 level...not like a synoptic event at H7-H5 or something. So this time of year with H85 temps so marginal, it isn't quite the same as it is in the winter.

Take that freezing rain event on the summits a few weeks ago...it was 29F and freezing rain, BUT not because there was warm air aloft. It was because the lift was occurring so low in the atmosphere that there wasn't any ice crystal formation to start a snowflake. Some trees up there had up to a half inch glaze even with a fully below freezing sounding.

I like to see -3C to -6C at H85 to even think about snow in a low level upslope scenario this time of year and preferably it would be like -8C or something.

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:snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:

 

SOME RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGS
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. THE 00Z GFS TRIGGERS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EAST COAST LOW ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...BEFORE RAPIDLY BRINGING THE "BOMBING" SYSTEM UP THE
COAST. THIS SCENARIO EVENTUALLY BRINGS A 986 MB STORM THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE..WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...AND A COLD
RAIN ELSEWHERE. THIS FEATURE IS STILL A WEEK AWAY AND THERE IS
PLENTY OF MODEL DISCONTINUITY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR
HOWEVER...AS IT WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON.

IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THE FLOOD GATES WILL BE OPEN TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD KILLING FROSTS TO REACH THE COASTLINE.

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The set up isn't textbook by any means on the models...and by light I mean 1-4" event. I do light as up to 4"...moderate is 4-8"...and heavy as 8"+. Anyway, what usually happens this time of year in upslope is graupel and really poor ratio snowflakes. That's the main negative factor. You have to remember that this upslope snow is forming at like 3-6000ft with snow growth taking place at H85 level...not like a synoptic event at H7-H5 or something. So this time of year with H85 temps so marginal, it isn't quite the same as it is in the winter.

Take that freezing rain event on the summits a few weeks ago...it was 29F and freezing rain, BUT not because there was warm air aloft. It was because the lift was occurring so low in the atmosphere that there wasn't any ice crystal formation to start a snowflake. Some trees up there had up to a half inch glaze even with a fully below freezing sounding.

I like to see -3C to -6C at H85 to even think about snow in a low level upslope scenario this time of year and preferably it would be like -8C or something.

 

That's true, but this time of year low snow ratios are exactly what we want! Cover up that grass.  All I can say is I'm interested in the period from Sunday am through Thursday.  Anytime there is a lingering frontal zone and various impulses moving across it, good things can happen. With little notice. 

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