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Rainshadow

Winter 2013-2014

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I'm not sure I get your reference here; but, let me say this...I don't know if it is apparent to me anymore, lol. I mean, I've got the hard numbers which 100% say, "No El Niño." Everyone, and of course their mother, agrees with that, too. But, then I see the Walker Cell shift to 160E, 30-day average CHI over the C PAC and buoy-interpolated data go exceptionally warm across the Pacific Basin. There's another Kelvin Wave coming with the most impressive OHC / SLH anomalies yet which should transverse the Basin over the next month or so....

 

Arguably, it looks like an El Niño right now using everything else but the long-term SST averages, statistics and modeling. Quick, someone slap me back some sense!

 

I just wanted to post this image, so you can see the scare I had yesterday, lol.

 

The buoys are lined up along lines of longitude (go to their website to see the array). So, if by chance, eddies swirl in some warmer water from the eastern Tropical Pacific along these particular longitudes, it will be interpolated warm in-between.

 

But still....LOL

post-176-0-34716000-1383224718_thumb.gif

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I just wanted to post this image, so you can see the scare I had yesterday, lol.

The buoys are lined up along lines of longitude (go to their website to see the array). So, if by chance, eddies swirl in some warmer water from the eastern Tropical Pacific along these particular longitudes, it will be interpolated warm in-between.

But still....LOL

I may have asked this yesterday but what effects would this have on the overall pattern going forward?

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this weeks oni was -0.4...The last mei index was -0.190 up from -0.614...If it continues to rise the oni will also at some point...If the oni for NDJ is between -0.1 to -0.5 it will be with these years...

1961...-0.1

1962...-0.5

1966...-0.2

1967...-0.4

1978...-0.1

1980...-0.1

1981...-0.1

1985...-0.5

1989...-0.1

1996...-0.5

2001...-0.3

2012...-0.3

all of these Decembers had a negative AO December...I think 2013's December oni will be -0.1...if so it will be interesting to see if the AO is negative also...

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I'm not sure I get your reference here;

 

You wouldn't... its just a guy I know who has been insisting on a weak El Nino. (and using it as justification for an epic winter)

 

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Tom,

 

This is just the relative low number of big events,  I'm kind of have my back against the wall with Aug stormdata due, staff meeting presentation coming up so sorry if I'm in/out, the six positive neutral winters are 1979-80, 1989-90, 1990-1, 1992-3,  1993-4 and 2003-4.  Overall snow (just PHL), they were not that far from normal. We had March 1993 in there too.

 

 

Tony, Thanks for the info, no problem. 

 

Yeah that stretch from the late 80s-early 90s was wretched for NYC as well. 2003-04 was a close call winter with sub normal in PHL and above normal in suburbia. 1979-80 was a great positive neutral winter with 40" at PHL, though it was immediately following two weak el nino winters. So completely different set-up. Positive neutral following a string of -ENSO years at PHL isn't a great set-up.

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You wouldn't... its just a guy I know who has been insisting on a weak El Nino. (and using it as justification for an epic winter)

 

Last winter was suppose to be an el nino also and it almost became a la nina. 

 

post-623-0-77713800-1383239763_thumb.gif

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Tony, Thanks for the info, no problem. 

 

Yeah that stretch from the late 80s-early 90s was wretched for NYC as well. 2003-04 was a close call winter with sub normal in PHL and above normal in suburbia. 1979-80 was a great positive neutral winter with 40" at PHL, though it was immediately following two weak el nino winters. So completely different set-up. Positive neutral following a string of -ENSO years at PHL isn't a great set-up.

 

Tom,

 

I am just seeing this as a winter where to find analogs are going to be tough because there are a host of contradictions this fall.

 

As far as ENSO outlooks go, this is just my opinion that a positive neutral winter may verify as weak el nino or negative neutral.  I do not personally believe the dynamical and statistical models are there to categorize the type of enso that tightly. Plus we have seen how a -NAO can throw all the ENSO(s) in the world away. 

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I did a quick and dirty comparison of warm Octobers and above average Eurasian snow cover (enso state not taken into account) for October. This is one eclectic snow group.  Dave Tolleris FB'd me Al Martino's NAO outlooks and five of these six (including the most recent four) averaged negative NAO(s) for the winter. 

 

 

attachicon.gifcd71.125.130.109.302.10.25.18.prcp.png

  . 

That's pretty darn ugly.  It seems like no way you slice it this winter looks to be another loser.

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That's pretty darn ugly.  It seems like no way you slice it this winter looks to be another loser.

 

Looks like a latitudinally challenged winter judging from the years that are popping up, maybe a nw to se or n to s gradient.  Was just looking at the November 1993 NH snow cover, highest ranking November, no wonder PHL area had all of those ice storms. 

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My friend, use this link for a quick reference if a particular winter had a CW, SSW and for FW timing:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

 

While CWs are something rare these days (maybe only 1 in like the last decade), the SSW frequency has climbed. They denote a SSW by the * next to the temperature. Notice 2001-02 had multiple warmings and yet....!!!!! lol The stratosphere isn't always the answer to our sensible weather. That winter had a classic -NAO fail period, lol.

 

As for your last question, during the 1980s/1990s, the HT relationship weakened because of what we did to the ozone layer (CFCs etc.). Furthermore, the +PDO / El Niño frequency was much higher; so, a lot of the warmings tended to occur later in the season. But the ozone destruction was the reason that the typical HT relationships were not as clear cut then. We have since recovered, if not, substantially so...

Thanks for the response HM. Looking at that link provided, for all of the years I mentioned above (except 01-02) we either had an early winter CW occurring(66-67 and 78-79) or no SSW's at all(61-62 and 90-91). Will be interesting to see if this winter follows suit...

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You wouldn't... its just a guy I know who has been insisting on a weak El Nino. (and using it as justification for an epic winter)

Oh lol... 

 

Thanks for the response HM. Looking at that link provided, for all of the years I mentioned above (except 01-02) we either had an early winter CW occurring(66-67 and 78-79) or no SSW's at all(61-62 and 90-91). Will be interesting to see if this winter follows suit...

Well, most of these neutral/+QBO years fail at producing a true SSW. But, this year we have to watch the Ural Mountain Lobe and the subsequent N. Atlantic High in November, possibly aiding in a wave 1. We also have more ozone than these analogs.

1990-91 did produce a true SSW, by the way. It was a classic high solar flux-W QBO late-winter response. That winter also had a bit of a diabatic enhancement from the warmer ENSO / long-term PDO state; however, the PDO did take a hit that year.

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Philadelphia October 60.6F, I believed tied for the 16th warmest.  Well within "warm" regardless. The Eurasian snow cover is going to average above normal for the month, but the Siberian progression has slowed (or been choppy) in the second half.  What to look for: a colder November wouldnt hurt, a faster demise to the polar vortex or signs thereof, a developing(?) non-east centric el nino, a sign of an atlantic tripole (where the colder November would be needed), the non-tropical Pacific staying less PDO positive, the Indian not warming. 

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You wouldn't... its just a guy I know who has been insisting on a weak El Nino. (and using it as justification for an epic winter)

 

 

Is this the same guy that you have repeatedly pounded over the proverbial head with data on FB stating the unlikelihood of that?

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Philadelphia October 60.6F, I believed tied for the 16th warmest.  Well within "warm" regardless. The Eurasian snow cover is going to average above normal for the month, but the Siberian progression has slowed (or been choppy) in the second half.  What to look for: a colder November wouldnt hurt, a faster demise to the polar vortex or signs thereof, a developing(?) non-east centric el nino, a sign of an atlantic tripole (where the colder November would be needed), the non-tropical Pacific staying less PDO positive, the Indian not warming. 

 

tied for 19th with 3 other years (if you treat the other ties ahead as 2 or 3 places depending on spot).

 

Unfortunately, today and tomorrow are going to royally be a PITA on cold departures this month (if you like cold).  You're looking at +9ish through two days. :yikes:

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tied for 19th with 3 other years (if you treat the other ties ahead as 2 or 3 places depending on spot).

 

Unfortunately, today and tomorrow are going to royally be a PITA on cold departures this month (if you like cold).  You're looking at +9ish through two days. :yikes:

I can just see Mark's regression equation results now.... :yikes:  :yikes:

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An El Nino-like tendency on the pattern this time of year can be pretty warm. In fact, this October has behaved similarly to El Ninos of the past that went on to produce blowtorch early winters. But, the stratosphere has NOT behaved that way so far and has been quite the opposite. What a ridiculous month this has been, especially if you are looking ahead to the winter.  

 

Mean W PAC to Dateline uplift will likely dominate a good portion of the mid Nov-mid Dec period and we will likely see the GLAAM spike late next month too. Perhaps it will build an appreciable STJ, assuming we get some coherency out of the MJO.

 

Before reading any further into the thread, have to post to agree with this. much confusion indeed. ENSO and TAO throwing in a monster curveball at present, some really good discussion here, Rainshadow good post showing last Winters forecast. Discussion made me recall this image from a paper I found.

post-7471-0-02483200-1383344248_thumb.pn 

 

Could be with all the confusion and trend towards more regular SSW activity, we actually will get the elusive Canadian Warming that we wonder about during November. Also wonder if we can get a strong enough period of ridging after mid month in the Atlantic to provide some tropospheric impact to the vortex to combine with that close but no cigar warming at the higher levels of the strat. Continuous eye candy potential downwelling would indeed be an agonising winter.. Already a brilliant watch with plenty to consider.

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Oh lol... 

 

Well, most of these neutral/+QBO years fail at producing a true SSW. But, this year we have to watch the Ural Mountain Lobe and the subsequent N. Atlantic High in November, possibly aiding in a wave 1. We also have more ozone than these analogs.

1990-91 did produce a true SSW, by the way. It was a classic high solar flux-W QBO late-winter response. That winter also had a bit of a diabatic enhancement from the warmer ENSO / long-term PDO state; however, the PDO did take a hit that year.

Interesting, that winter is one of the stratospheric analogues that over in the UK that we would like to see repeated. And even though west QBO SSW's are notoriously difficult beasts to achieve as Jan 1991 and 2009 have shown. With the El Nino that isn't and rate of snow advance increase on the right side of average and the low sea ice years giving a positive high latitude H500 anomaly, I am thinking that a SSW may still be achievable this winter.

 

post-451-0-54735400-1383345395_thumb.png

 

The 1991 SSW was a classic split - so we would need to see an increase in wave 2 activity later in winter for something similar, perhaps like 1979 also  ( another analogue comparable year)

 

1991 SSW

 

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/wp-content/svw_gallery/test/gif/1991_01_28.gif

 

Feb 1979 SSW

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/wp-content/svw_gallery/test/gif/1979_02_27.gif

 

 

I think that we should look out for irriversible deformation of the polar vortex in January where air with high PV is picked off the vortex and mixed into the mid latitudes - this could be a precurser of a later SSW. This process is described in this paper which includes the 1979 SSW PV charts.

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/waugh+polvani-PlumbFestVolume-2010.pdf

 

I also think that the Arctic low sea ice years will contribute to the tropospheric feedback - with increased amplitude Rossby waves more likely to break into the strat. There is quite a considerable H500 anomaly difference between the high and low sea ice years which should be 'weighted' into any winter thoughts.

 

High sea ice anomaly

 

post-451-0-32551800-1383345011_thumb.png

 

 

Low sea ice anomaly

 

post-451-0-17978900-1383345048_thumb.png

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Nice seeing some new contribution from folks across the pond. 1991 SSW was one that did not work out for the U.S. In fact, I believe there are many PV splitting examples that end up failing for us, while the displacements seem to deliver more often than not. 

 

compday.tlx9VwjBFy.gif

 

Anyhow, it doesnt get any uglier than what the ensembles are showing in the 11-15 day.

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Here are the 20 warm October analog outcome (weak el nino and enso neutral winters).  Its similar to this October. Pending November, some of these will go.

 

post-623-0-81334000-1383584322_thumb.jpg

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Has anyone seen Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast? He has released it on oct. 31 in the passed.

 

Yes. He's called for a colder than normal December, January, and February in a region that includes the Philadelphia metro area and suburbs.

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Yes. He's called for a colder than normal December, January, and February in a region that includes the Philadelphia metro area and suburbs.

 

Don,

 

Was that each month or the winter as a whole?

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Don,

 

Was that each month or the winter as a whole?

He did a December-March forecast. December, January, and February were colder than normal. March was warmer than normal.

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He did a December-March forecast. December, January, and February were colder than normal. March was warmer than normal.

 

Don,

 

Thank-you.  Wow we have not had three consecutive months of below normal temperatures since the winter of 2003-4. 

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Don,

 

Thank-you.  Wow we have not had three consecutive months of below normal temperatures since the winter of 2003-4. 

You're welcome, Tony. It's been a very long time since a winter featured such cold in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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Don,

 

Thank-you.  Wow we have not had three consecutive months of below normal temperatures since the winter of 2003-4. 

 

We've had two in a row though a couple of times this year. For cold lovers, it's progress?

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Tony, not that you probably have the time to do this with all of your other responsibilites, but have you considered taking out the effect of a warming atmosphere from the equation?

 

What I mean is that, if warmer temperatures in October and November are not causitive for warmer temperatures in DJF, but are instead correlated somehow, it might be more accurate to compare the 2013 October temperatures to the more recent warm average temperature (1982-2013?). If there is still a + delta, then perhaps the analogs might be more predictive of warmer than average DJF, but if there is more less a zero delta, then perhaps the more older "average" October years might be better analogs? This might be even more perfected if the +/- deltas for October temperatures are calculated based upon a 20 or 25-year rolling average.

 

Anyway, I wish I had the time and the access to information to look at this more carefully. Thanks for indulging me.

 

Here are the 20 warm October analog outcome (weak el nino and enso neutral winters).  Its similar to this October. Pending November, some of these will go.

 

attachicon.gifanalog.jpg

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Tony, not that you probably have the time to do this with all of your other responsibilites, but have you considered taking out the effect of a warming atmosphere from the equation?

 

What I mean is that, if warmer temperatures in October and November are not causitive for warmer temperatures in DJF, but are instead correlated somehow, it might be more accurate to compare the 2013 October temperatures to the more recent warm average temperature (1982-2013?). If there is still a + delta, then perhaps the analogs might be more predictive of warmer than average DJF, but if there is more less a zero delta, then perhaps the more older "average" October years might be better analogs? This might be even more perfected if the +/- deltas for October temperatures are calculated based upon a 20 or 25-year rolling average.

 

Anyway, I wish I had the time and the access to information to look at this more carefully. Thanks for indulging me.

What I'm getting at is maybe delta T is more predictive than absolute T. But maybe I'm totally wrong.

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