tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 First 20 days of Oct at phl. ouch. AVERAGE MONTHLY: 65.3 DPTR FM NORMAL: 5.9 Yea the first 5 days of the month and the warm overnight lows last week with that nor'easter hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I posted this question in the MA forum too, but does anyone know what is the physical reason why a year with a rapid increase in snow cover would produce better Arctic blocking than a year with steady above normal snow cover? It seems to me that both paths would generally lead to more efficient building of pressures in the high latitudes than a year with low snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I posted this question in the MA forum too, but does anyone know what is the physical reason why a year with a rapid increase in snow cover would produce better Arctic blocking than a year with steady above normal snow cover? It seems to me that both paths would generally lead to more efficient building of pressures in the high latitudes than a year with low snow cover. Could be that the snow cover is partly a byproduct of a certain pattern which is conducive to snow further south down the road, instead of a direct cause of a snowy pattern. Don't know, but its what pops into my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 snowfall (rounded down to nearest whole number) 12-13 =46.11-12 =19, 10-11= 6609-10=65 08-09= 4007-08=32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I posted this question in the MA forum too, but does anyone know what is the physical reason why a year with a rapid increase in snow cover would produce better Arctic blocking than a year with steady above normal snow cover? It seems to me that both paths would generally lead to more efficient building of pressures in the high latitudes than a year with low snow cover.This is highly speculative, but my guess is that rapid increase of snow cover has a latent variable that is the true cause of the relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 First 20 days of Oct at phl. ouch. AVERAGE MONTHLY: 65.3 DPTR FM NORMAL: 5.9 So another "mode conflict" October as there is no way that Eurasian snow cover is going to average less than average for the month. Same as last October. Here are the other Octobers and winter enso states: 1968 (nino), 1970 (nina), 1971 (nina), 1973 (nina), 1993 (neutral), 1998 (nina), 2001 (neutral), 2010 (nina) & 2012 (neutral). The enso states that have a chance this winter I bolded, The others (moderate or greater) IMO are too strong in either direction. CFS2 current output, they are currently outlooking a borderline enso neutral/weak el nino for the winter with warmer departures east of 3.4. Its also near the warmest end of the dynamical and statistical models overall, the dynamicals are enso neutral positive, the statisticals, enso neutral negative. The raw SSTA anomalies though dont look as bad in the rest of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Atlantic, not so good. They dont have a 500mb anomaly chart, but it almost looks like a stronger positive PNA winter as we go along with an eventual negative NAO east for what all of that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 So another "mode conflict" October as there is no way that Eurasian snow cover is going to average less than average for the month. Same as last October. Here are the other Octobers and winter enso states: 1968 (nino), 1970 (nina), 1971 (nina), 1973 (nina), 1993 (neutral), 1998 (nina), 2001 (neutral), 2010 (nina) & 2012 (neutral). The enso states that have a chance this winter I bolded, The others (moderate or greater) IMO are too strong in either direction. CFS2 current output, they are currently outlooking a borderline enso neutral/weak el nino for the winter with warmer departures east of 3.4. Its also near the warmest end of the dynamical and statistical models overall, the dynamicals are enso neutral positive, the statisticals, enso neutral negative. The raw SSTA anomalies though dont look as bad in the rest of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Atlantic, not so good. They dont have a 500mb anomaly chart, but it almost looks like a stronger positive PNA winter as we go along with an eventual negative NAO east for what all of that is worth. Split flow ice storms... Or 35 and rain. Take our pick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Split flow ice storms... Or 35 and rain. Take our pick! Sounds like a possible 93-94 winter scenerio where north and west do way better than the city. Allentown snowfall vs.philly snowfall that winter is an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Yea, could be. However, 93-94 was pretty anomalous. All depends on how everything plays out. 93-94 had a an Atlantic so bad that it wS actually good. (Fast flow, no blocking). But because it sagged far enough south with the huge PV anomaly, the flow of storms were quick, cold hitters. Gut tells me that the Atlantic might not coop this year. If so, the pacific is gonna need to rock, otherwise fuggedaboutit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Yea, could be. However, 93-94 was pretty anomalous. All depends on how everything plays out. 93-94 had a an Atlantic so bad that it wS actually good. (Fast flow, no blocking). But because it sagged far enough south with the huge PV anomaly, the flow of storms were quick, cold hitters. Gut tells me that the Atlantic might not coop this year. If so, the pacific is gonna need to rock, otherwise fuggedaboutit Have to see how deep the snow cover gets north of our area in November and December. While we were getting soaking rains in Nov/Dec 1993, they were getting buried in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Yea, could be. However, 93-94 was pretty anomalous. All depends on how everything plays out. 93-94 had a an Atlantic so bad that it wS actually good. (Fast flow, no blocking). But because it sagged far enough south with the huge PV anomaly, the flow of storms were quick, cold hitters. Gut tells me that the Atlantic might not coop this year. If so, the pacific is gonna need to rock, otherwise fuggedaboutit That year had a -epo which was the source for all the cold which was directed at the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Does anyone have a link to the site where you can plot severla years and or months and look at the patterns. Here is the example of what im trying to find. Though i want to be able to plug in different dates where like snow storms occurred and different patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 So another "mode conflict" October as there is no way that Eurasian snow cover is going to average less than average for the month. Same as last October. Here are the other Octobers and winter enso states: 1968 (nino), 1970 (nina), 1971 (nina), 1973 (nina), 1993 (neutral), 1998 (nina), 2001 (neutral), 2010 (nina) & 2012 (neutral). The enso states that have a chance this winter I bolded, The others (moderate or greater) IMO are too strong in either direction. CFS2 current output, they are currently outlooking a borderline enso neutral/weak el nino for the winter with warmer departures east of 3.4. Its also near the warmest end of the dynamical and statistical models overall, the dynamicals are enso neutral positive, the statisticals, enso neutral negative. The raw SSTA anomalies though dont look as bad in the rest of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Atlantic, not so good. They dont have a 500mb anomaly chart, but it almost looks like a stronger positive PNA winter as we go along with an eventual negative NAO east for what all of that is worth. I would take that and let that play out. Only thing is though, it looks like the AO should average out this to above normal. Seems like their is a decent correlation with october AO's and how it pans out the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I would take that and let that play out. Only thing is though, it looks like the AO should average out this to above normal. Seems like their is a decent correlation with october AO's and how it pans out the rest of the winter. I think the correlation for October - DJF AO is an inverse one, so it's better to have a +AO right now. Same goes with the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Could be that the snow cover is partly a byproduct of a certain pattern which is conducive to snow further south down the road, instead of a direct cause of a snowy pattern. Don't know, but its what pops into my head. This is highly speculative, but my guess is that rapid increase of snow cover has a latent variable that is the true cause of the relationship. Good thoughts. Definitely an interesting topic of research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Does anyone have a link to the site where you can plot severla years and or months and look at the patterns. Here is the example of what im trying to find. Though i want to be able to plug in different dates where like snow storms occurred and different patterns Not sure if this is what you're looking for: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Don't tell DT, he's still riding that train. ECMWF must have an explosive snow cover buildup then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Not sure if this is what you're looking for: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/ I saw that one and its one of the ones im looking for. There is another one though through that site where you can plug in specific days and or months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Not sure if this was posted already. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20132014/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I saw that one and its one of the ones im looking for. There is another one though through that site where you can plug in specific days and or monthsThis guy? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Or this guy? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl?var=SST%20%28NCEP%20Reanalysis%20Model%29;level=Surface;mon1=7;mon2=9;iy=2009;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;ipos%5B1%5D=;ipos%5B2%5D=;ineg%5B1%5D=;ineg%5B2%5D=;timefile0=;tstype=0;timefile1=;value=;typeval=1;compval=1;lag=0;labelc=Color;labels=Shaded;type=2;scale=;labelcon=1;switch=0;cint=.5;lowr=-3;highr=3;proj=ALL;xlat1=0;xlat2=90;xlon1=260;xlon2=0;custproj=Cylindrical%20Equidistant;level1=1000mb;level2=10mb;Submit=Create%20Plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Not sure if this was posted already. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20132014/ I stopped once I read the beginning of the stratosphere portion. Right or wrong, it wasn't for the right reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 So a mid-dec setup for snow and then maybe even a white xmas may exist. The month overall looks warm and RNA like however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Many forecasts have hinted at a mild first half of winter and then colder and stormier from late January onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 This guy? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Or this guy? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl?var=SST%20%28NCEP%20Reanalysis%20Model%29;level=Surface;mon1=7;mon2=9;iy=2009;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;iy=;ipos%5B1%5D=;ipos%5B2%5D=;ineg%5B1%5D=;ineg%5B2%5D=;timefile0=;tstype=0;timefile1=;value=;typeval=1;compval=1;lag=0;labelc=Color;labels=Shaded;type=2;scale=;labelcon=1;switch=0;cint=.5;lowr=-3;highr=3;proj=ALL;xlat1=0;xlat2=90;xlon1=260;xlon2=0;custproj=Cylindrical%20Equidistant;level1=1000mb;level2=10mb;Submit=Create%20Plot that is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Many forecasts have hinted at a mild first half of winter and then colder and stormier from late January onward. Well you have similar October temperature departures, snow cover advance and sorry Atlantic as we did heading into last winter (which at least by temperatures was like last winter). But the Pacific looks better than last fall and the number of hemispheric recurving tropical systems I believe is down from last winter. That sounds like colder shots even if it contradicts my for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Well you have similar October temperature departures, snow cover advance and sorry Atlantic as we did heading into last winter (which at least by temperatures was like last winter). But the Pacific looks better than last fall and the number of hemispheric recurving tropical systems I believe is down from last winter. That sounds like colder shots even if it contradicts my for October. At least with colder shots we have a better chance of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 So another "mode conflict" October as there is no way that Eurasian snow cover is going to average less than average for the month. Same as last October. Here are the other Octobers and winter enso states: 1968 (nino), 1970 (nina), 1971 (nina), 1973 (nina), 1993 (neutral), 1998 (nina), 2001 (neutral), 2010 (nina) & 2012 (neutral). The enso states that have a chance this winter I bolded, The others (moderate or greater) IMO are too strong in either direction. CFS2 current output, they are currently outlooking a borderline enso neutral/weak el nino for the winter with warmer departures east of 3.4. Its also near the warmest end of the dynamical and statistical models overall, the dynamicals are enso neutral positive, the statisticals, enso neutral negative. The raw SSTA anomalies though dont look as bad in the rest of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Atlantic, not so good. They dont have a 500mb anomaly chart, but it almost looks like a stronger positive PNA winter as we go along with an eventual negative NAO east for what all of that is worth. Pretty much a cutter pattern with the se ridge basking in glory if you run it against the 30 yr avg since 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 In terms of temperature that is horrid those years. I ran the temperature composite for those years, and lets just say Adam would be playing squash outdoors in january 2001-2 was the third warmest winter on record, so I could see why Adam is playing squash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 2001-2 was the third warmest winter on record, so I could see why Adam is playing squash. I ran it against the 1950-1995 average, when i did it for the 30 yr avg from 81 to present it was better, but still squash weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 In 2001-2002 solar activity was much stronger for whatever that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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