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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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I'm not liking the way the radar looks south of us

I think it's to early to be concerned or excited. I do like its convective look and steadily increasing coverage / expansion. I saw WXRisk mention a a report of 6" in 2.5 hrs with the activity in VA. There is a lot of energy there. Tonight could be another high performer but exactly where is still the question.

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Hopefully we don't see that deformation band shift east as sometimes can be the case at crunch time.  The last few runs of the RAP as well as the recent HRRR seem to favor the eastern side of the Hudson into western NE, a slight shift east from where most of the global models were favoring.

 

We ended up with about 8.25" new snow here.  Took several measurements and that was about the average.

 

edit: And, just like that, the 19z HRRR now focuses it right over the Hudson.  There may some really crazy totals in this band if it behaves as modeled (not for location which we know is up in the air, but for intensity).

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Let's not forget an addition 8-12+ isn't out of the question... I currently have 10" and my forcast from NWS is 18-24"

 

Not at all, in fact it will likely happen for some people in this forum.  I'm looking at a snow map from the 19z HRRR and it's got a spot of 40" on the Putnam/Dutchess border (new snow).  Not gonna happen to that extent, but it's fun to look at  :sled:

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Not at all, in fact it will likely happen for some people in this forum. I'm looking at a snow map from the 19z HRRR and it's got a spot of 40" on the Putnam/Dutchess border (new snow). Not gonna happen to that extent, but it's fun to look at :sled:

I feel pretty good about tonight after seeing the 18z models pretty spit on with the dry slot

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Albany AFD regarding tonight:

 

HOWEVER...THE H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NC/VA IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SFC CYCLONE...AND ALLOW VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO RETURN TONIGHT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR A
NORTH TO SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY N/NW TO S/SE ORIENTED MESOSCALE
SNOWBAND TO HIT MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

BASED ON CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA THESE MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS ARE
VERY LIKELY WITH THE H700 CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING FROM ERN
PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/FRI.
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PIVOTING
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO SET UP. ALSO...THE LEFT FRONT QUAD
OR LEFT EXIT REGION REGION OF 130-140+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG OMEGA/UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

A QUICK CHECK OF CROSS-SECTIONS DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM THE
NAM AND GFS TONIGHT SHOW STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH
STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN BENEATH NEGATIVE EPV /AT 400-500 HPA/ BTWN 00Z-
06Z WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SYSTEM...AND THE OPTIMAL DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE /-10C TO -16C/ INTERSECTS THIS AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND OMEGA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3
INCHES LOOK LIKELY. THE STRONG MESOSCALE BANDING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER IN THE HEAVIER SNOW /THUNDER SNOW !/. SOME CG LTG
STRIKES CONTINUE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

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Not at all, in fact it will likely happen for some people in this forum.  I'm looking at a snow map from the 19z HRRR and it's got a spot of 40" on the Putnam/Dutchess border (new snow).  Not gonna happen to that extent, but it's fun to look at  :sled:

I saw that too. Very very aggressive with even 1 to 1.5" plus in parts of NJ. Lot of energy with these storm still to pass thru so would not be surprised it the backside over performs but not sure is see another 18". But it seems 4-8 / 6-12 is quite possible for areas that max out in those bands. LHV on north could do better.

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For Suffolk, Long Island

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...STRONG WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...

NYZ078-080-140630-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1100Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
334 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5
INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 11
TO 18 INCHES.

* SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
EARLY...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. THE HEAVY WET
SNOW WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES MAY ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLLAPSE
IF NOT CLEARED OF SNOW AND ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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