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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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Without a doubt, probably not til after 9 or 10 looking at the latest HRRR.  They may not be quite the intensity that they are down in the city, but easily 1-2" per hour once they get going.

Thanks.....she plans to scoot to work quick just to say she showed up and back home around 10. Commute is only 15 minutes. Once everyone safe at home, can't wait for the meat and potatoes of the storm! And tonight's dessert should be decadent! Stay safe everyone!

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about 3 inches here now in oak ridge, nj. nw morris county.  intensity picking up.

 

my brother in Burlington township just texted me that he's gone over to sleet.  he estimated about 8 inches before changeover.

 

The mix line is making a nice push into C NJ now. Should flip southern sections of NYC & LI within the next hour or 2

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Guest Patrick

concerned that the dry slot catches us just as the heaviest gets going in warren/sussex.  if we can manage to avoid it and snow all day, we hit 10-18" easily

Guys in warren county nj here. It's just ripping. And the winds are really picking up to. I don't want to wet your appetites but I will. This is crazy. Get excited.

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concerned that the dry slot catches us just as the heaviest gets going in warren/sussex. if we can manage to avoid it and snow all day, we hit 10-18" easily

I can see us even topping those numbers if we avoid the dry slot. I can tell you we have about 4 " just by my eye. I live in the woods and I can't see the trees 100 ft. Away. This is the heaviest snow I have ever seen in my young 21 year old life haha. Just nuts.

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Didn't see this posted:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0099.html

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 99 < Previous MD Next MD > mcd0099.gif
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0700 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 131300Z - 131800Z   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR   LIKELY...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE   COASTAL NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY   ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK/NYC METRO INTO SOUTHERN NEW   ENGLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A TRANSITIONAL MIX OF   PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN COASTAL PLAIN AREAS THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THE ATLANTIC.   DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS   EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE READILY   EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. A   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS AS OF   12Z...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE   SURFACE IN COASTAL AREAS AS PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z UPPER AIR DATA.   THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OF   CONSIDERABLE UVV FROM THE DELMARVA VICINITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND   BY MIDDAY. AS PER 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...SNOW WILL BE THE   DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH   SATURATED MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC LAYERS /SUCH AS 12Z ALBANY AND   NYC-LONG ISLAND SOUNDINGS/ CONDUCIVE FOR BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY   SNOW FROM FAR EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW   ENGLAND.    IN NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THE   ATLANTIC...A TRANSITIONAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE LONG ISLAND 12Z   OBSERVED SOUNDING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY SUB-0C BELOW 850 MB/1.3 KM   AGL. THIS NEAR-COASTAL TRANSITIONAL MIX WILL BE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION QUASI-FOCUSED ACROSS THE NYC METRO   VICINITY/FAR SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
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concerned that the dry slot catches us just as the heaviest gets going in warren/sussex.  if we can manage to avoid it and snow all day, we hit 10-18" easily

I think we will avoid the dry slot or at least only be minimally affected. May be a lull in precip rates (ie light snow) for a while but not much if any time completely shut off. May be a different story just off to our S&E.

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AS OF 9 AM...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO

6 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERSPREAD COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE

REGION...COLLOCATED WITH AN INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC BAND LIFTING

NORTH FROM CENTRAL NJ AND OFF THE OCEAN. REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES

IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN COMING INTO THE OFFICE UNDER THIS BAND. IN

ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE

COAST...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 11

AM...COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING

CONDITIONS. AROUND 1 FT OF SNOW LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH

MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS BAND.

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