snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 With all of these ticks and bumps, How are we looking up here SNYwx? putnam,middletown etc As of now I would still have to say an overall 3-6" (less west, more east). Srefs are really the only ones that bury us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For what it's worth they just tweaked our local forecast a bit- still 4-6 but with the old caveat " locally higher amounts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For what it's worth they just tweaked our local forecast a bit- still 4-6 but with the old caveat " locally higher amounts" Yeah alot is also gonna depend on the fluff factor as well. If we get .40" of precip with 20:1 ratios then we are looking at 8". There is that possibility we may be in for some surprises tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Similar numbers on the 00z GFS to it's last run. Not many significant shifts (other than the SREF's as noted) today aside from a very slight jog NW. I was anticipating a last minute shift SE as usually happens, but so far, not yet. I think 3-5" is a good call for now, with localized spots, especially SE, to 8"+ as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hopefully the snowpack will result in lower night time temperatures. However much we get it is not melting anytime soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 close up of rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 6 GFS made another tick NW. I believe that we get a region wide 5 to 10 inches for the NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 6 GFS made another tick NW. I believe that we get a region wide 5 to 10 inches for the NW zones. 6 GFS made another tick NW. I believe that we get a region wide 5 to 10 inches for the NW zones. Very close to a big deal in NW NJ. Those in the S&E parts of Sussex County may end up doing much better than the N&W parts of the county. There are indications the best banding will be slightly further north than thought just 12-24 hours ago. 10-15 miles either way could be the difference of moderate snow and heavy snow. Suspect ~25miles either side of a line from about phi to nyc is where the core of the best banding will end up in. For us in the S&E parts of Sussex County we are not solid but close to solid on 6-8" with 10" still very plausible. One thing for sure this snow is not melting away anytime soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Very close to a big deal in NW NJ. Those in the S&E parts of Sussex County may end up doing much better than the N&W parts of the county. There are indications the best banding will be slightly further north than thought just 12-24 hours ago. 10-15 miles either way could be the difference of moderate snow and heavy snow. Suspect ~25miles either side of a line from about phi to nyc is where the core of the best banding will end up in. For us in the S&E parts of Sussex County we are not solid but close to solid on 6-8" with 10" still very plausible. One thing for sure this snow is not melting away anytime soon! Hey neighbor! The trend has most definitely been our friend overnight!! Liking 8"+ as a real possibility given trends! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Fingers crossed gents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thinking a warning should be up for Sussex, no? Newer to the area and thinking that we "just know how to handle it better"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I can't copy and paste, but my Holly thinks the best dynamics stay east of us and the snow shuts off for us before the shtf later tonight... Hence the lower numbers. I don't like it, but I believe it. Thinking a warning should be up for Sussex, no? Newer to the area and thinking that we "just know how to handle it better"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I can't copy and paste, but my Holly thinks the best dynamics stay east of us and the snow shuts off for us before the shtf later tonight... Hence the lower numbers. I don't like it, but I believe it.I read that. Also think that the higher warning criteria is at play. Either way, it's a beautiful thing given where we were 48 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Oh definitely.. I'm not complaining too much. Let the city folks have their fun. I'll wait for our late Feb/march paste job jackpot! I read that. Also think that the higher warning criteria is at play. Either way, it's a beautiful thing given where we were 48 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Oh definitely.. I'm not complaining too much. Let the city folks have their fun. I'll wait for our late Feb/march paste job jackpot Hope your right but when was the last 6+ storm where Sussex County was jackpot for NY metro accumumlations. Seems like a long time with these bigger events, definetly been more than a short time trend as think it pretty much has been the case since the Boxing Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A few flakes flying around here, surprising since I figured with dry air aloft we would see an hour or two of virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 4k 12z NAM shows a secondary JP zone from eastern Warren up through southern Sussex County and western Passaic Counties where the lift will be enhanced by the elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 4k 12z NAM shows a secondary JP zone from eastern Warren up through southern Sussex County and western Passaic Counties where the lift will be enhanced by the elevation. Come to papa! My expectations are low. Anything greater than 4 inches is a "win" in my book. 6-8 sounds reasonable for my town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Light snow has begun here in Monroe. Temp at 12F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Light snow here as well at West Point, very fine crystal flakes.. I hope flake development doesn't kill us like the last cold snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Light snow here as well at West Point, very fine crystal flakes.. I hope flake development doesn't kill us like the last cold snow storm Yeah- I think it will be good this time. It's already becoming more moderate down here in Monroe. I see upton already bumped us into the 6-8 zone. I'm thinking 6-10 like last storm is probably doable. We will see. I'm sitting at the southern end of the county about 5 miles down the road from greenwood lake. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea I'm just over the mountain from you with a nice elevation of 900ft and I'm seeing decent flake development now with good winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lgt Snow w/ a temp of 14f close to .5" already... This stuff is accumulating immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hope your right but when was the last 6+ storm where Sussex County was jackpot for NY metro accumumlations. Seems like a long time with these bigger events, definetly been more than a short time trend as think it pretty much has been the case since the Boxing Day storm. Since 09-10 winter we have been fringed up here. Snowicane ( feb 25-26) we jackpotted up here but most have been scrapers in the last 3-4yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea I'm just over the mountain from you with a nice elevation of 900ft and I'm seeing decent flake development now with good windsI used to be in Cornwall up on Mine Hill rd- so I'm familiar. Now I'm off the backside of West Mombasha in Monroe. In between two mountains that the Appalachian runs thru- a little elevation definitely helps when it comes to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I used to be in Cornwall up on Mine Hill rd- so I'm familiar. Now I'm off the backside of West Mombasha in Monroe. In between two mountains that the Appalachian runs thru- a little elevation definitely helps when it comes to snow! My father in law lives on School Rd near W Mombasha rd. Im pretty sure his property sits at exactly 1000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 17.1F/3F... a bit dry. Every mile south and east is going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 3-6" is gonna be the general rule for the Mid HV w/ areas in extreme SE areas receiving 6-8". Hey if i get 6" I'm gonna take it and run! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 3-6" is gonna be the general rule for the Mid HV w/ areas in extreme SE areas receiving 6-8". Hey if i get 6" I'm gonna take it and run! lol.. Yeah, no joking. This isn't "our storm" up here but at least there's snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My father in law lives on School Rd near W Mombasha rd. Im pretty sure his property sits at exactly 1000' Yeah I remember you mentioning in the past you knew the area. It's funny cause I never think of it as that much elevation- but it clearly makes a difference with some of these storms. School Rd can be treacherous with snow on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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