ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z ECM dissolves the impressive NAO block around Day 6, although there's still a high height field left near Baffin Island. The NAO looks to become more positive although ridging is starting to form in the Atlantic at Day 10, and a Rex block may be developing as an ULL tries to slide eastward towards the Mediterranean. The pattern seems to be very persistent in that the NAO never breaks down for more than a few days. We're also starting to get some help from the PAC in terms of a +PNA pattern with the ridge over the West connection with the high pressure near Baffin Island. I think any +PNA would be very transient if we get one at all. Doesn't mean we can't occasionally get some ridging out west like we are seeing for the potential Xmas event, but that is really not a +PNA pattern as much as it is a rockies/central US transient ridge. There's really no sign of breaking the RNA pattern in the PAC..at least through the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think any +PNA would be very transient if we get one at all. Doesn't mean we can't occasionally get some ridging out west like we are seeing for the potential Xmas event, but that is really not a +PNA pattern as much as it is a rockies/central US transient ridge. There's really no sign of breaking the RNA pattern in the PAC..at least through the next couple weeks. Yeah definitely agree...I think we do have an impressive PNA signal for the XMAS event although the ridge axis is displaced east of the ideal location (Boise, ID) which means that the storm may not develop into a classic coastal as many are hoping. I think it will be hard to get H5 to cut-off in the right spot for I-95 with this pattern, but certainly not an impossibility given how guidance does seem to be centered around pretty favorable solutions. As you say, there is no end in sight to the pesky GoA/Pacific Northwest low that seems to be a hallmark of the strong Niña/-PDO pattern; this ULL is a bit farther south than normal though, I think, due to all the blocking with the intensely -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah definitely agree...I think we do have an impressive PNA signal for the XMAS event although the ridge axis is displaced east of the ideal location (Boise, ID) which means that the storm may not develop into a classic coastal as many are hoping. I think it will be hard to get H5 to cut-off in the right spot for I-95 with this pattern, but certainly not an impossibility given how guidance does seem to be centered around pretty favorable solutions. As you say, there is no end in sight to the pesky GoA/Pacific Northwest low that seems to be a hallmark of the strong Niña/-PDO pattern; this ULL is a bit farther south than normal though, I think, due to all the blocking with the intensely -AO. Also, as some have been saying, when you have a block this strong, it tends to repeat at various points throughout the winter. Although we havent seen one in a mod or strong la nina in many decades-- probably not since 1956. About the coastal-- the good thing is, we actually dont need for it to develop to get a decent snowfall, low end warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 skimming this thread is depressing. it almost reads as though winter is going to be short lived, at least snow-wise and pretty much over by mid-jan with potential warm up. last winter was absurb for snow up here and I didn't think it could get any worse. ended at 52", which is way below avg. Already off to an awful start. what the heck , this is NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Going forward, I think we'll have another chance of a storm towards NY within a couple of days of 1/1 perhaps. Troughing tends to develop over the MW which probably means an increased chance of something. Also, there still will be some ridging to our ne as the -nao tries to get established..but it seems week on the EC ensembles. The one red flag is the tendency for lower heights to develop near AK and move slightly west. It gets close to moving into a position to warm the US, but for now..it stays in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Going forward, I think we'll have another chance of a storm towards NY within a couple of days of 1/1 perhaps. Troughing tends to develop over the MW which probably means an increased chance of something. Also, there still will be some ridging to our ne as the -nao tries to get established..but it seems week on the EC ensembles. The one red flag is the tendency for lower heights to develop near AK and move slightly west. It gets close to moving into a position to warm the US, but for now..it stays in AK. Euro ensembles look a lot more bullish for building the blocking back up than it did before.I don't think its surprising based on the analog composite...all those years had blocking lasting quite a while and the models want to break it apart too quickly almost every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WOW..I just saw the 12z Euro for day 10. Forgot to look earlier with all the excitement. That would be one ugly torch oon NYE. Let's hope that's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro ensembles look a lot more bullish for building the blocking back up than it did before.I don't think its surprising based on the analog composite...all those years had blocking lasting quite a while and the models want to break it apart too quickly almost every time. Yeah it's encouraging to see that. Looks like there is still some sort of a low around here for NY and then we cool off afterwards, if the ensembles are right. Looks pretty good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 WOW..I just saw the 12z Euro for day 10. Forgot to look earlier with all the excitement. That would be one ugly torch oon NYE. Let's hope that's wrong There could definitely be a bit of a brief warmup...though the ensembles look like they have a lot of disagreement on exactly how the pattern shakes out for those few days...it looks like we could briefly get into a gradient pattern where a storm tries to ride along it...so I could see us staying on the cold side of the gradient and even getting a snow event out of that setup or it could hook into lakes torching us for a day or two. But either way, it looks like any warm up would be quite brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WOW..I just saw the 12z Euro for day 10. Forgot to look earlier with all the excitement. That would be one ugly torch oon NYE. Let's hope that's wrong Here is your Ens look pretty normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 There could definitely be a bit of a brief warmup...though the ensembles look like they have a lot of disagreement on exactly how the pattern shakes out for those few days...it looks like we could briefly get into a gradient pattern where a storm tries to ride along it...so I could see us staying on the cold side of the gradient and even getting a snow event out of that setup or it could hook into lakes torching us for a day or two. But either way, it looks like any warm up would be quite brief. Hopefully it ends up a gradient pattern..This is the first time the Euro has done anything like that with a torch at day 10 in many many runs. Maybe it'll revert back cold tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is your Ens look pretty normal That's better. The op really was alarming when I saw that. Last thing we need is near 50 on NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The pattern at least temporarily shows signs of changing. Models develop a deep trough in the west, with ridging trying to develop further east. The saving grace for us might be the tendency for heights to rise in the Davis Straits, but there at least looks to be a tendency for maybe a low passing very close by..or perhaps west of us, sometime near NY. Afterwards, it gets cooler with models trying to pop a +PNA, but kind of skeptical about that. The NAO still tries to go -, but not strongly so....at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So what may be causing PNA spike in Nina? Is it MJO? MJO once again has shown to be independent this year, but check these out. Look at how the MJO goes into phase 5, but zooms back to phase 7-8. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The pattern at least temporarily shows signs of changing. Models develop a deep trough in the west, with ridging trying to develop further east. The saving grace for us might be the tendency for heights to rise in the Davis Straits, but there at least looks to be a tendency for maybe a low passing very close by..or perhaps west of us, sometime near NY. Afterwards, it gets cooler with models trying to pop a +PNA, but kind of skeptical about that. The NAO still tries to go -, but not strongly so....at least as of now. Any danger of a short torch ?..because Ryan is just waiting to post about his +5 Jan and Feb forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Any danger of a short torch ?..because Ryan is just waiting to post about his +5 Jan and Feb forecast I think around NY we could either get a gradient type storm..or a cutter. Lets hope it's a gradient thing, but with a big trough in the west..I could see a cutter. Luckily we could see heights build over the Davis Straits, but I don't know of it will be enough. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think around NY we could either get a gradient type storm..or a cutter. Lets hope it's a gradient thing, but with a big trough in the west..I could see a cutter. Luckily we could see heights build over the Davis Straits, but I don't know of it will be enough. Lets hope. The GFS has consistently shown something going west of us with lots of WAA. It also features a pretty strong high in Quebec so if we can trend it east from its most recent track (through Wisconsin) we could have a shot at a front end dump scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro still has NYE eve /day torch..3 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL maybe by the time I come back from FL it will be 50F and the HECS will be melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro ensembles are starting to get on board for a quick torch around Jan 1-2 but then it cools off again. Hopefully we get a storm staying underneath us, but its looking less likely as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensembles are starting to get on board for a quick torch around Jan 1-2 but then it cools off again. Hopefully we get a storm staying underneath us, but its looking less likely as we get closer. Damnit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Damnit Price we may pay for the HECS. HECS essentially ushers new pattern albeit brief. Well worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Damnit How bad does it look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wasn't 12/23/61 the beginning of a monster Christmas Eve snowfall? 10" fell in Newark and 6" in NYC... Boston... http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?14100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How bad does it look? It looks like there may be 2-3 days of torching with temperatures staying in the 40s and 50s, followed by heavy rain. The cold front after the lakes cutter may be extremely severe, as Canada is loaded with arctic air as both the GFS and ECM show large areas of -25C to -30C 850s to our north. This could start a cold trend for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lord have mercy is the Euro ugly. Torch from the 30th on with a brutal cutter. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The GFS indicates a storm immediately behind the cutter/Plains blizzard....that 2nd storm could potentially be a coastal depending on how fast the trough progresses eastward and how soon behind the 2nd event is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lord have mercy is the Euro ugly. Torch from the 30th on with a brutal cutter. WTF Yeah that will be ugly. I do see signs that it could be swfe like, but the concern is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah that will be ugly. I do see signs that it could be swfe like, but the concern is there. 1996 like torch/snowmelt on the Euro. I hate when we get a bigstorm..and then you have in the back of your mind while you're shovelling and piling the snowbanks high that a torch and cutter is coming to melt it all away. Hopefully we have time to change this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 1996 like torch/snowmelt on the Euro. I hate when we get a bigstorm..and then you have in the back of your mind while you're shovelling and piling the snowbanks high that a torch and cutter is coming to melt it all away. Hopefully we have time to change this lol except we aren't melting a 30" depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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