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Damage In Tolland

Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow

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Heaviest precip looks well west of the 00z NAM had it right about where the 00z GFS has it.

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BDL down to 47F...don't think they see that again all day tomorrow...the record low max for them tomorrow is 48F. If BDL can pull of a record low max of like 46F or lower...then it would be really impressive. The latest date of a 46F high is May 11th.

 

47F here at my place. Incredible. I doubt we get into the 50s tomorrow... probably struggle out of the mid 40s.

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Definitely seems strange to not see much about it mentioned in the AFD. GYX finally threw the S word into their AFD briefly for the first time this afternoon for the high terrain.

 

Sometimes I don't get the point of AFDs unless they're going to discuss the uncertainty of possibilities. If you're just explaining what will happen that sort of defeats the purpose IMO... it's the one product where you can really talk about the range of options and why you as a forecaster favor one over another. 

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Sometimes I don't get the point of AFDs unless they're going to discuss the uncertainty of possibilities. If you're just explaining what will happen that sort of defeats the purpose IMO... it's the one product where you can really talk about the range of options and why you as a forecaster favor one over another. 

 

 

Yeah I agree. I don't like to bash NWS since they generally do a great job, but I thought the 4pm AFD was pretty poor given what the models were showing. I mean, if you are so confident that snow won't fall below 2500 feet, that is fine...but I'm not sure how you would actually come to that conclusion today.

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Yeah I agree. I don't like to bash NWS since they generally do a great job, but I thought the 4pm AFD was pretty poor given what the models were showing. I mean, if you are so confident that snow won't fall below 2500 feet, that is fine...but I'm not sure how you would actually come to that conclusion today.

 

Sometimes I think the AFD is a waste of time when it's just regurgitating a narrative version of the GFS. Especially when there is a potentially high impact event that is the one place you can really go into detail and discuss possibilities. I try to check out the AFDs before I go on air but don't always have the time... sometimes they can be useful. 

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CON is already 47F...the low max for tomorrow on the threadex extremes page is 48F in 1967 so that will probably be beaten.

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Sometimes I think the AFD is a waste of time when it's just regurgitating a narrative version of the GFS. Especially when there is a potentially high impact event that is the one place you can really go into detail and discuss possibilities. I try to check out the AFDs before I go on air but don't always have the time... sometimes they can be useful. 

 

 

If it had been merely that, they would have been hitting the snow hard.

 

 

I looked at 12z MOS and it really seemed liek the forecast was a rip and read on MOS which was much more tame than the actual model outputs today. MOS does weight climo some...so I wonder if that is going to end up being a big flaw here...or perhaps the MOS guidance will win because of it.

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If it had been merely that, they would have been hitting the snow hard.

 

 

I looked at 12z MOS and it really seemed liek the forecast was a rip and read on MOS which was much more tame than the actual model outputs today. MOS does weight climo some...so I wonder if that is going to end up being a big flaw here...or perhaps the MOS guidance will win because of it.

 

I'm just worried about the accumulation part during the day... being May 25th and everything.

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I'm just worried about the accumulation part during the day... being May 25th and everything.

 

 

If its heavy, it will accumulate..it could be June 25th and it would accumulate if you have 1/4 SN+....now the question is will we get that? The models are saying yes. But if its lighter, then we definitel yhave a problem during daylight...and even during dark the lower you go.

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My memory of 1967 (summer of love fwiw) is that was cool. Of course then there is 1977 and the 5/10 snow bomb along the pike to the coast and that summer had some serious heat. And 2002 was a pretty hit summer as well.

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My memory of 1967 (summer of love fwiw) is that was cool. Of course then there is 1977 and the 5/10 snow bomb along the pike to the coast and that summer had some serious heat. And 2002 was a pretty hit summer as well.

Down in Monterrey with Eric Victor Burdon and the Animals. Ah the summer of love.

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00z NAM has 925mb temps below 0C by 21z at ORH tomorrow afternoon...so a very good chance they get a period of snow or at least flakes mixed in before ending near dinner time or just after if it panned out as the NAM shows.

I actually am working 5-1130, so I'll only be available to drive to the snow before 5, so I'm hoping wawa mixes earlier then predicted (although some haven't predicted it at all).

 

hey what happened to CTsnowstorm? I would have expected him to be all over this? I see he hasn't checked the site since April.

He finished Junior year at Lyndon in mid may, and he's doing an 11 week internship in State College, PA. I'm assuming he hasn't had much time to post. I haven't really been on the site much recently either.

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If its heavy, it will accumulate..it could be June 25th and it would accumulate if you have 1/4 SN+....now the question is will we get that? The models are saying yes. But if its lighter, then we definitel yhave a problem during daylight...and even during dark the lower you go.

 

Yeah, that's my concern, if the snow turns out to only be light or moderate... but hopefully it's heavy enough to accumulate.

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See....what did I tell you. It is all about the forecaster for the AFD from BTV.

TABER is an outdoorsman and a skier so he's more interested in the mountain weather...he usually forecasts and writes about the high terrain even though they "technically don't forecast for the summits." But he would also get the camping/hiking impact piece of Memorial Day weekend.

Now this is a freakin' AFD, complete with even mentions on how great picture taking time of white, snow covered mountains may occur on Sunday evening lol.

000

FXUS61 KBTV 250837

AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

437 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE

NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL

WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND

GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON

LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES

WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND

EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED

QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM

TOTAL PREICP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS

THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL

VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. IN ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING

HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY

MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND GREEN MTNS.

FCST CHALLENGE IS IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA

WATERWAYS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW ACRS HIGHER TRRN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED 7/5H CIRCULATION

ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACRS

OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS

CLOSED SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR

CWA THRU TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPING BY

THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM

BECMG VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THE ASSOCIATED

QPF ACRS OUR CWA. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE 7H FGEN

FORCING...STRONG 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND DEEP 850

TO 500MB UVVS ACRS OUR CWA THRU 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN

PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT

TIMES...ESPECIALLY THRU THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO

SUNDAY...SYSTEM WL TRANSITION FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO

MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE BY THE TRRN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY FAVORABLE

850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ENHANCED

PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT.

THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE

FINALLY WEAKENING BY EVENING. WL CONT TO MENTION POPS NEAR 100% FOR

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY/CAT POPS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN

THE MORNING. GIVEN...THE DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION FEEL PRECIP/CLOUDS

WL LINGER THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT WL TAPER OFF BY AFTN. ALSO...FEEL

QPF/POPS WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS THE SLV...AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED

LIFT/RH. THINKING MOSTLY LOW LIKELY WESTERN DACKS TO CHC POPS SLV.

THIS AREA WL ALSO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGHS IN

THE 50S.

STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH

LOCALIZED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND

MTNS OF NORTHERN VT. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL

HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. MUCH

LESS QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...GENERALLY

<0.25". ALSO...THINKING AMOUNTS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE

CLOSER TO 1.0". THIS WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL

WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HDYRO SECTION

BLW FOR MORE INFO.

NOW FOR THE HARDEST PART OF THE FCST...TRYING TO DETERMINE SNOW

LEVELS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS

SHOW THERMAL PROFILES BECMG COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SNOW

ABOVE 2000 FT. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE THE COLD

AIR IS COMING FROM...AS OUR LLVL CAA IS LIMITED. THINKING DYNAMIC

COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP WL MIX COLDER AIR ALOFT TWD THE

SFC...AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO

DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE.

HAVE NOTED 28F AT WHITEFACE AND 32 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD....WITH

WHITEFACE WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING THE GROUND WHITE...BEFORE SUNSET

ON FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A RIBBON OF 85H TEMPS BTWN

-1C AND -3C...AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA

TODAY. THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL START NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL (3500 TO

4000 FEET) TODAY...BUT DROP TO NEAR 2000 FT BY THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE MTNS AS

YOU INCREASE YOUR ELEVATION ABOVE 2500 FT. THINKING BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES

WL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...WITH

OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY AT THE SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. I

REALIZE WE TECHNICALLY DON`T FCST FOR THE SUMMITS...BUT GIVEN THE

HOLIDAY WKND AND POTENTIAL FOR HIKERS/CAMPERS IN THE MTNS AND

POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS

POTENTIAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF WE CAN CLR SKIES LATE SUNDAY

AFTN...THE SNOW COVERED MTN SUMMITS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GREAT

PICTURES.

THE COMBINATION OF PRECIP/CLOUDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WL

SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U30S MTNS TO L/M 40S CPV/CT RIVER

VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...READINGS WL WARM INTO THE

50S. TEMPS WL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AS WINDS/PRECIP AND

CLOUDS PREVAIL...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S TO L40S. ON

SUNDAY...TEMPS WL BECM TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF WE BREAK OUT INTO SOME

SUN LATE IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LATE DAY HIGHS FOR THE CPV...WITH

VALUES REACHING THE L/M 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MTNS AND L60S

IN THE SLV. MOST OF THE MARATHON WL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH COOL

TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ON SUNDAY

MORNING. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 50F...AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO

THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS

WL RESULT IN A SLOW CLRING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR

NORMAL LVLS BY MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR

SOME FROST ACRS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF

VT. THIS MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED LLVLS AND

POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE IN THE EXTENDED

AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE

DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE

DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM FRONT

LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. FIRST THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE

A FOCUS WEDNESDAY FOR CONVECTION AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MOVES

INTO THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING THREAT ON THURSDAY AS

FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ONCE IT

DOES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS IN NOTICEABLY

WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING

INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING

SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE

FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND

IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL

EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER

14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC

BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF

SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR

CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT

NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER

THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON

SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AS OF 440 AM SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE

TODAY...STORM TOTAL PREICP VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED

3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE

CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. LOCALLY RUN

SSHP MODEL HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING

NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS

INTO FLOOD BY THIS AFTN INTO SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE

FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN

WOULD BE THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...OTTER...AND PASSUMPSIC IN

VERMONT...AND THE AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE

CURRENT TRENDS IN RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS

ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO THE

PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL OF

WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS

OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY

SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS

THE OPEN LAKE. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN

POSTED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25

KNOTS.

THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH

WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6

FEET. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON TODAY WILL

ADD TO THE MISERY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10

TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SOME

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED

BELOW.

BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)

MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)

MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)

ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.

NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER

NEAR TERM...TABER

SHORT TERM...TABER

LONG TERM...EVENSON

AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS

HYDROLOGY...TABER

MARINE...WFO BTV

CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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000

WWUS81 KBTV 250758

SPSBTV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

358 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

NYZ031-034-VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-252100-

WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-

WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...

ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...

EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

358 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHEST

SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE GREEN

MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET

BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MINOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE A FEW ISOLATED

POWER OUTAGES AND BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS IN THE HIGHEST

MOUNTAIN TOWNS. IN ADDITION...CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD PLAN FOR

WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN SUMMITS THIS

WEEKEND.

$$

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Those snow levels on the nrn and wrn slopes wil be lower than 2k.

Euro still says ORH and especially Wachusett have a shot of snow.

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The warm side of the TROWAL may screw my chance at seeing any flakes, but it will be cold, wet, and miserable regardless. 44F and -Ra right now. 2.52" of rain since Tuesday.

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The warm side of the TROWAL may screw my chance at seeing any flakes, but it will be cold, wet, and miserable regardless. 44F and -Ra right now. 2.52" of rain since Tuesday.

I bet the mtns to your NW are white tomorrow morning....just may be obscured by clouds.

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Maybe I'm trying to convince myself not to drive back home, but what I've seen this morning makes me think BTV's latest AFD is correct with 2000ft+ seeing snow, instead of down lower like some of yesterday's models.

The question of where does the cold come from is a good one...as most stations are about where they were last night. SLK still at 39F with low 40s in the Greens around 1000ft. The CAA will have to come down from aloft but it hasn't so far with BTV putting ~0.5" in the bucket in the past 6 hours and 0.15" hourlies at times. They still sit at 45F.

The latest runs of the RAP are pretty warm at H85 this afternoon and evening....0C to -2C....instead of some of those NAM -3 to -5 values.

It will be interesting to see how today goes.

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Those snow levels on the nrn and wrn slopes wil be lower than 2k.

Euro still says ORH and especially Wachusett have a shot of snow.

What's the ECM have for H850s?

The latest RAP runs won't get it done...very marginal up there.

21z today...

00z....

03z tonight...

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I don't think we get snow levels- at least accumulating snow below 2500 feet. 

I do think 3500+ could see quite a bit of snow as I suspect there will be a sharp gradient from dusting to dumpage. 

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Those snow levels on the nrn and wrn slopes wil be lower than 2k.

Euro still says ORH and especially Wachusett have a shot of snow.

 

Scott--do you see any shot of flakes mixing in out this way?  Probalbly a longshot, but anything anywhere in NE on Memorial Day is a longshot.

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I don't think we get snow levels- at least accumulating snow below 2500 feet.

I do think 3500+ could see quite a bit of snow as I suspect there will be a sharp gradient from dusting to dumpage.

Ok...I am starting to lean that way this morning too. And I'm glad I'm not seeing things, you and I are often on the same page with the overall feel of an event. I was buying into some accums coming down low yesterday and some of those model runs were pretty nuts.

My flags are the fact that not much change happened overnight with temps...even without sunlight and rather heavy at times precip. Still 31-32F top of Mansfield won't let those flakes get much more than 1000ft below the summit. My general rule for flakes in steady/saturated air/precip is about 1000ft below the freezing line.

Even the 6z GFS only has a -3C lobe into the Adks but its pretty marginal in the Greens. Even by 00z this evening its near 0C across the Spine and then warms us back above freezing at H85 by 3z tonight!

So it'll have to happen this morning and afternoon if its going to.

Almost looks like the core of the H85 cold is over the Dacks now instead of the Greens like yesterday progs had.

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Ok...I am starting to lean that way this morning too. And I'm glad I'm not seeing things, you and I are often on the same page with the overall feel of an event. I was buying into some accums coming down low yesterday and some of those model runs were pretty nuts.

My flags are the fact that not much change happened overnight with temps...even without sunlight and rather heavy at times precip. Still 31-32F top of Mansfield won't let those flakes get much more than 1000ft below the summit. My general rule for flakes in steady/saturated air/precip is about 1000ft below the freezing line.

Even the 6z GFS only has a -3C lobe into the Adks but its pretty marginal in the Greens. Even by 00z this evening its near 0C across the Spine and then warms us back above freezing at H85 by 3z tonight!

So it'll have to happen this morning and afternoon if its going to.

Almost looks like the core of the H85 cold is over the Dacks now instead of the Greens like yesterday progs had.

 

Werd. 

Well, we'll see.  Somebody I know is going to Marcy today. They are categorically insane. We'll see what they report. Other than "whiteout, death conditions" I'll be surprised. 

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