powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 How long of a drive is it from NE CT up to Stowe? About 4 hours on the dot from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 It's killing me to not be able to be there tmrw. I tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Light rain, 44F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 It's killing me to not be able to be there tmrw. I tried. I can't believe my good luck...like you mentioned earlier, maybe this is my 12/9/05 that you lucked into for a wedding too, lol. Hopefully it goes close to as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 If this storm performs as modeled tomorrow, there is going to be snow down into BTV I think...at least flakes mixed in. We'll just have to track how well the BL is cooling vs models as we go into tonight and early tomorrow. I'm trying to decide a decision making time...I figure we should have an idea by 6-8am tomorrow as to how low this snow will get or at least how it's progressing. The models make me think tomorrow afternoon and evening is the "go-time" so if I left at 8am I could be home by noon. I will say the middle of the day and afternoon in late -May makes me wonder if this does stay up near 2000ft. I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I can't really see any massive red flags...at least for the upslope region above 1500 feet...and maybe even 1,000 feet. I mean ifthe deform/CCB craps the bed, maybe...but its hard to imagine it sucking there because they'll get so much assist from that moist NW BL flow. Yeah exactly...and every model has a great look to the mid levels too. You lucky prick...lol. That should be an awesome chase..throw an extra memory card into the camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I'm trying to decide a decision making time...I figure we should have an idea by 6-8am tomorrow as to how low this snow will get or at least how it's progressing. The models make me think tomorrow afternoon and evening is the "go-time" so if I left at 8am I could be home by noon. I will say the middle of the day and afternoon in late -May makes me wonder if this does stay up near 2000ft. I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story. Your family knows how passionate you are. Tell them this is a once in a lifetime event...you can see them next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I'm trying to decide a decision making time...I figure we should have an idea by 6-8am tomorrow as to how low this snow will get or at least how it's progressing. The models make me think tomorrow afternoon and evening is the "go-time" so if I left at 8am I could be home by noon. I will say the middle of the day and afternoon in late -May makes me wonder if this does stay up near 2000ft. I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story. They might start off like that, but I think they would get shellacked once the sun went down in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I can't believe my good luck...like you mentioned earlier, maybe this is my 12/9/05 that you lucked into for a wedding too, lol. Hopefully it goes close to as modeled. Usually there are a bunch of cons with really anomalous setups but there really aren't many here at all. Should work out fine. 1500+ should be golden with upside at lower elevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 ECMWF 3 hr snowfall maps from wunderground max out at 2" in a 3 hr period over the MT Mansfield, not much terrain gets above 1" in 3hr period. So I can still see accumulating snow not working out below 3k feet. But those in VT above 1K ft just expecting to see flakes mixing in may get what they hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I think tomorrow aftn after like 3-4 could all of the sudden turn into a widespread paste job rather quickly above 1500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Even ENX radar shows snow aloft past Schenectady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story. Yeah I'm not convinced on accumulation during the day this late in the year unless it's SN+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Yeah the Euro basically shows snow down to BTV too. It would be one thing if the models showed snow to 1500 feet barely and the thinking was that they were a bit too cold, so only 2500 feet and up would see accumulating snow, but they aren't showing that. They are showing snow poundng down below 1,000 feet...so even if they run a bit cold, its still a plasturing at 1500 feet. I'm not sure what the main thinking is because they didn't discuss the model data in the AFD or reasoning. I could still see this not being that big of deal below 2k...but I think the chance of that happening is probably less than it being a big deal. At the very least I think making folks aware of the possibility would be prudent. The key thing thats probably getting underplayed at this point is the fact that there is a substancial upslope component to the low-level wind. Not only will dynamical cooling be working in our favor, but there will also be a substancial mesoscale lowering of the snow line due to adiabatic lift. One of our new professors actually did a large portion of his PhD. research on the mesoscale snow line lowering associated with topography. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/jminder/research/minder_etal_snowline.pdf When investigating mesoscale snow line controls in high topography, the key features that affect the snow line in the mountains are: approximently 1.) Latent Cooling from melting precipitation 2.) Microphysical Melting Distance 3.) Adiabatic Cooling The second bullet point is also very interesting... as the size and density of snowflakes can have a substancial impact on the melting layer where latent cooling takes place. For example in the paper above its stated that a 10mm snowflake descends around 100m further down before melting than a snowflake half that size. Riming and other factors that increase the density of snowflakes can also help increase this melting layer distance, which can effectively lower the snow level via a larger region of Latent Cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I'm hoping and praying for mangled flakes, but my elevation is probably too low for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Lol at NAM by 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I'm hoping and praying for mangled flakes, but my elevation is probably too low for that. Go to Kevin's house, he won't be home lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 That's why those spots just west of the Spine may be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Lol at NAM by 18z tomorrow. -5C or so at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 -5C or so at 850? Yeah and sfc temps in the lower 30s. Midday on May 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Mega lift incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 BTW euro temps are below 0C at 925mb at 18z tomorrow over BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 The key thing thats probably getting underplayed at this point is the fact that there is a substancial upslope component to the low-level wind. Not only will dynamical cooling be working in our favor, but there will also be a substancial mesoscale lowering of the snow line due to adiabatic lift. One of our new professors actually did a large portion of his PhD. research on the mesoscale snow line lowering associated with topography. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/jminder/research/minder_etal_snowline.pdf When investigating mesoscale snow line controls in high topography, the key features that affect the snow line in the mountains are: approximently 1.) Latent Cooling from melting precipitation 2.) Microphysical Melting Distance 3.) Adiabatic Cooling The second bullet point is also very interesting... as the size and density of snowflakes can have a substancial impact on the melting layer where latent cooling takes place. For example in the paper above its stated that a 10mm snowflake descends around 100m further down before melting than a snowflake half that size. Riming and other factors that increase the density of snowflakes can also help increase this melting layer distance, which can effectively lower the snow level via a larger region of Latent Cooling. Yeah I love those types of studies...snow growth really can play a large factor in the latent cooling. One reason we love to see big omega in the SGZ during marginal situations...really helps lower that FRZ level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 It's 48F right now at Bradley: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=KBDL Still at 48... they need to drop a degree by midnight if we want a chance at the record low max tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Go to Kevin's house, he won't be home lol Where is he at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I may chase to Bolton Valley tomorrow...still undecided. If there was ever a time to do it it would be this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 00z NAM has 925mb temps below 0C by 21z at ORH tomorrow afternoon...so a very good chance they get a period of snow or at least flakes mixed in before ending near dinner time or just after if it panned out as the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I may chase to Bolton Valley tomorrow...still undecided. If there was ever a time to do it it would be this event. I'm thinking of scampering over by Mt Snow. Prob a bit too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Looks like Will and Powderfreak are bonding nicely as they stroll through Stowe village the evening before a potentially historic snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Temp falling through 44F here with heavy rain. Lovely night for late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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