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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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burbank

Yesterday morning, I was dumfounded by the reversal in the Euro’s solution. Was it a signal that this respected model had really latched onto some real changes in the atmosphere? Then, when most of the other computer models jumped on the bandwagon at midday, it was really nauseating. I failed to understand why there was a trend toward rapid intensification near the coast but the overwhelming data dictated that acceptance was more warranted. It proves the point that forecasting many storms is fraught with speculation outside of 48 hours of occurrence. Confidence usually ramps up significantly in most but not all cases within 48 hours of the event. The atmosphere is fluid and complex and minute changes in the streams of air can create havoc. The latest episode in thiscontinuing saga features the same cast of characters but the previous plot applies now. In other words. a glancing blow makes more sense to me regarding this upcoming storm. As I have reiterated through the entire week, bombogenesis is inevitable but the precise time and place of initialization and the maturation is paramount to accurately predicting the outcome for any particular area. So I’m backing off and postulating a storm track farther offshore based upon the idea that phasing of the northern and southern streams does not happen quickly enough near the coast. This process is delayed and will unfold over the Atlantic. Consequently, a massive potent storm will materialize out over the ocean and it is expected to expand as it explodes resulting in strengthening north-northwesterly winds to perhaps gale force the first half of the week. Additionally, after the initial plume of precipitation brushes southeastern Massachusetts Sunday evening into early Monday, backlashing snows of mainly light to possibly moderate intensity may circulate back into the area late Monday through Tuesday and perhaps early Wednesday. My early thinking is that the front end of the storm could deliver a dusting up to 2 inches of snow from the western suburbs into Boston with a few inches possible over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod where a mix is possible for a spell near the relatively mild ocean in the middle 40s. On the back end of the storm as it backs in on us, a few more inches of snow could fall for many of us making it a white Christmas. With all of this said, it still bears watching because any slight reconfiguration of the upper level wind field can produce a remarkably different outcome.

In the meantime, we’ve got 2 pleasantly, bright sunny days ahead of us with highs today and tomorrow in the range of 34-38 with a breeze under 10 mph most of the time. Radiational cooling dropped the temperatures to the upper single numbers to middle teens this morning and they will retreat to the middle teens to lower 20s tonight. On Sunday, as a maritime low-level flow becomes established, some showers of mixed snow and rain may develop over the coastal plain. The envelope of mostly snow from the storm will stream up over southeastern New England late in the day through the evening into early Monday. As the Pats host the Packers Sunday evening, there could be some snow showers or a bit of light snow with temperatures near 30-32 degrees with a bit of a breeze. Presently, I am not expecting a real Snow Bowl there. Once the potential backlash snows and winds subside late Wednesday, it will turn sunnier with near seasonable highs of the upper 30s to 40 degrees on Thursday and Christmas Eve. Another threatening storm close to Christmas can only be conjecture at this point in time.

Once I have digested fresh data later this morning through midday, I will post my midday musings early this afternoon.

Make it a great day!

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Does this end up being a strung out solution in the end? I think tonight's models are the important runs.

This was the run several well respected mets said mattered and I 100% agree. I think SE NE is still in the line of fire, but hopes are dwindling to the west of Bos to PVD. This is the NAM, until we see others with a similar whiff....not to worry but if this whole suite goes east forget-a-bout-it.

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